1. Strategy for developing a CO 2 reduction policy in Europe Nikolas Hill, Knowledge Leader ‐ Transport Technology and Fuels, AEA 8 th Diesel Emissions Conference & AdBlue Forum Europe 2012, 30 May – 1 June 2012, Hilton Düsseldorf nikolas.hill@aeat.co.uk +44 (0)870 190 6490

2. Outline 1)The current situation in Europe Reduction and testing of GHG emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles (funded by EC DG Climate Action): 2)LOT 1: assess the amount and reduction potential of GHG emissions from HDVs –Task 1: Vehicle Market and Fleet –Task 2: Fuel Use and CO 2 emissions –Task 3: Technology –Task 4: Policy Assessment 3)LOT 2: propose a method to quantify such emissions for whole vehicles as well as for vehicle components 4)Next steps: “LOT 3” and developing a CO 2 reduction policy 2

3. +Political commitment to reduce emissions by 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050 +Roadmap for low carbon economy: –Overall -80% reduction in emissions by 2050 –Transport sector foreseen to reduce emissions between -54 and -67% by 2050 +White Paper on Transport targets -60% reduction in emissions by 2050 (Base 1990); 20% by 2030 (Base 2008)  HDV 40% improvement in energy efficiency by 2050 Reducing HDV fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions in the EU policy context 3

4. +In the last couple of decades improvements in truck fuel economy appear to have reduced relative to previous historical trends… Historical context for European truck fuel efficiency 4 Source: Presentation by Christophe Pavret de La Rochefordière, EC DG Climate Action, Preparing a strategy for reducing HDV fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, ICCT Workshop, 10 November 2011, Brussels

5. +Road transport CO 2 emissions not included in EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) +Existing regulations setting CO 2 targets for: –Cars (Reg. 443/2009), and –Vans (Reg. 510/2011) +Currently no legislation setting targets for HDV CO 2 emissions +Current test cycle procedures are on engine basis (e.g. for regulation air pollutant emissions), not whole vehicle +In addition a number of existing & proposed EU legislation and programmes are already expected to contribute lowering HDV CO 2 emissions Regulatory situation in Europe 5

6. Reduction and testing of GHG emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles: Outline and Objectives Project work split into two lots. The objectives of the two lots were to:  Lot 1 (Lead – AEA): assess the amount and reduction potential of GHG emissions from HDVs, and to  Lot 2 (Lead – TU Graz): propose a method to quantify such emissions for whole vehicles as well as for vehicle components. Lot 1: Strategy Support Objective The service contract is to provide the Commission's services with technical assistance in the area of reducing GHG emissions from HDVs (passengers and freight). +Task 1: Vehicle Market and Fleet +Task 2: Fuel Use and CO 2 Emissions +Task 3: Technology +Task 4: Policy Assessment 6

7.  EU market is dominated by 7 major European HDV manufacturers 93% EU registrations and ~40% total worldwide production ~75% bus and coach market served by these manufacturers  Trailer/bodybuilders: 1000s organisations; 7 orgs = ~60% market  HDV market highly complicated compared to LDVs Final configuration (and performance) results from a chain of organisations Final vehicle specification often bespoke/unique to fit particular application/cycle, with a wide variety of different auxiliary equipment utilised Road tractor and semi-trailer pulled often owned by different organisations  Data characterising the # and distribution of HDV operators across EU is not collected in any standard format, and is very difficult to locate 60% of the freight tonne km in the EU are associated with longer distance trips Most freight operators smaller in size, with 85% having fewer than 10 vehicles HoR operations >85% tonne km, travel longer distances vs Own Account. HoR operations also purchase and own the majority of road tractors (# increasing) Total fleet and average fleet size of bus companies > coaches  Fuel represents about 30% of operating costs LOT1: The European Vehicle Market and Fleet 7

8.  Increase in % larger/heavier trucks since 1995; increase in % <16t buses: Source: Based on datasets from ACEA (2010) and Eurostat (2010) Notes:AEA have estimated the split of registrations by combining ACEA/Eurostat data LOT1: New vehicle market size and structure (EU27) - Registrations of heavy duty vehicles by gross vehicle weight 8

9.  Estimation of split by broad mission profile using data from ACEA  Other datasets on body types also utilised (e.g. refrigerated 7-10% of total) Source: AEA estimates based on dataset provided by ACEA (2010) Notes: Average for sales between 2000 and 2009 LOT1: New vehicle market size and structure (EU27) - Registrations of trucks by mission profile 9

10. LOT1: Technology Assessment  Technologies in the drivetrain and vehicle (body/trailer) categories can have a large impact on fuel consumption  Hybrids, dual fuel, lightweighting, automatic tyre pressure monitoring, automated transmission, aerodynamics, low rolling resistance tyres, heat recovery, etc  For conventionally fuelled vehicles on urban duty cycles with frequent stop/start behaviour hybrid vehicles offer the highest benefit (savings 20-30%)  For HDVs on regional/long-haul missions, greatest benefits from powertrain improvements and aerodynamics  Aerodynamic aids (e.g. bodies/trailers) offer potentially great benefits of 10% reduction (and more)  Benefits of technologies are not always cumulative 10

11.  Results illustrate: Increase of fuel consumption/CO 2 emissions in BAU of 15% from 2010 to 2030 Importance of long-haul activity in total emissions due to higher activity levels Service/delivery and urban delivery vehicles relatively low impact vs numbers Buses and coaches share decreasing to 2030 LOT1: BAU Projections on Fuel Use and CO 2 Emissions 11

12. LOT1: Scenario analysis - to reduce HDV CO 2 emissions below 2010 levels by 2030, challenging technology uptake rates are required +Cost effective scenario reduction of 6% in 2030 compared to BAU +Challenging scenario reduction of 15% in 2030 compared to BAU +Challenging technology uptake levels needed to reduce direct CO 2 / LC GHG vs 2010 +Similar results found in alternative analysis carried out by TIAX funded for ICCT (2011) Assessment of possible future reduction in total EU fuel consumption and GHG emissions from HDVs Cost Effective Scenario: commercially acceptable payback period Challenging Scenario: maximum feasible reduction

13. LOT1: Policy Analysis  Performance requirements for vehicles and their components  Potential benefits, stimulate technologies. Need a methodology to assess CO 2 emissions  Driver training, dissemination of best practises  CO 2 reduction benefits, at least in short-term, at relatively small financial outlay  Reduction in speed for heavy duty vehicles  Implication on logistics  Changes to weights legislation  Rebound effects to be considered: intermodal transfer and infrastructure changes  Changes to dimensions legislation  Positive when allowing aerodynamics appliances  Emissions trading  E.g. upstream (on fuel suppliers) and closed (for HDV only)  Taxation measures: fuel, road user charges, vehicle cost incentives  Most attractive option but also most politically sensitive  Complementary instruments to enhance benefits or mitigate rebound effects, e.g.  Labelling of vehicles or components, with  Vehicle purchase taxes or incentives 13

14.  HDV market is complex: significant diversity in final vehicle specification, use. European manufacturers dominate EU market, are significant players globally  Vast majority road freight associated with longer distance trips transported primarily by hire or reward operators with relatively small fleet sizes  HDVs are load carrying vehicles with considerable range in size/application, so any developed standards should reflect this  further work in LOT 2  Results of the technology development /uptake modelling analysis show: In the BAU Scenario, energy consumption / GHG emissions rise 15% by 2030 Analysis shows only by challenging technology uptake levels can the continual increase in GHG emissions be reduced below 2010 levels by 2030  High level policy assessment following the EC Impact Assessment Guidelines of identified instruments applicable to the EU.  Summary assessment of shortlisted policies; prioritisation not possible as cost- effectiveness/GHG reduction potential depends on detail of the instrument (outside scope)  The project scope did not include modelling of a range of important options that may offer significant opportunities for further FC/GHG reductions  Improved auxiliaries and fuels, regulations on vehicle dimensions/weight, impacts of speed controls or reductions, road infrastructure measures, operational measures, ITS… LOT1: Summary and Final Conclusions 14

15.  The approaches explored by the project were: Model simulation Measurement on chassis dynamometer Measurement with PEMS (Portable Emissions Measurement Systems)  Methodology considers: engine, driving resistances of whole vehicle, gearbox, most relevant auxiliaries  Preferred option: model simulation with post-verification of model parameters via measurement LOT2: Measurement methodology for CO 2 emissions and fuel consumption of HDV 15 gCO 2 per km, t-km or m 3 -km

16. AA LOT2: Proposed test procedure for HDVs 16

17.  In total 10 HDV CO 2 /fuel consumption test cycles:  Total HDV classes: 18 truck classes 6 bus and coach classes  Bodies and trailers (influence aerodynamic drag), either: Standard bodies and trailers defined, with Δ(Cd*A) measured for alternatives, or “Reference body” selected by OEM within size class, with Δ(Cd*A) measured vs this LOT2: Vehicle Segmentation 17 MissionCycle Acronym Heavy Trucks Long HaulLH Regional DeliveryRD Urban DeliveryUD Municipal UtilityMU ConstructionCS Heavy Passenger Vehicles Heavy UrbanHU UrbanUR SuburbanSU InterurbanIU CoachCO All HDV Common Short Test CycleCST

19.  “LOT3”: New DG CLIMA Service Request Objectives: Develop a demonstrator simulation tool to be used for the validation exercise, building upon the output from LOT2 project Further develop the proposed computer simulation method to cover all relevant categories of HDV vehicles Participate in the demonstrator simulation tool validation exercise and actively support the Commission in managing it Prepare and propose to the Commission the text for an HDV CO 2 certification procedure based on use of the simulation test methodology compatible with existing type approval procedures as well as with other relevant EU legislation Develop and propose quality management procedures to be used in and after the certification procedure to check whether the procedure delivers solid results  In consultation with stakeholders “LOT3”: Future Commission Work / Next Steps (1) 19

20.  Completed HDV CO 2 simulation procedure will minimise test burden and incentivise use of efficient technologies  Other new policy actions being considered including:  HDV labelling  Establishment of emission reduction objectives  Economic instruments  Design/ performance requirements for components  Measures targeted at HDV purchase and use  Ongoing Impact Assessment to be concluded end 2012  HDV CO 2 Emissions Strategy adoption by Commission is expected in the first half of 2013 (tentative) “LOT3”: Future Commission Work / Next Steps (2) 20

21. AEA Nikolas Hill Knowledge Leader – Transport Technology and Fuels AEA The Gemini Building Fermi Avenue Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)870 190 6490 E: nikolas.hill@aeat.co.uk W: www.aeat.co.uk Copyright AEA Technology plc This presentation is submitted by AEA. It may not be used for any other purposes, reproduced in whole or in part, nor passed to any organisation or person without the specific permission in writing of the Commercial Manager, AEA Technology plc.