1. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies Koivisto, R., Wessberg, N., Eerola, A., Ahlqvist, T., Kivisaari, S., Myllyoja, J. and Halonen, M. VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008

2. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies Contents Introduction Methods of FTA and risk assessment Prospective projects illuminating possible synergies and development challenges Towards an integrated approach Conclusions

3. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies Methods of FTA and risk assessment The methods of Future oriented Technology Analysis FTA - a common umbrella term for technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment (Rader & Porter 2006) Foresight (European Commission 2002): A systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilising joint action SECI model (Nonaka & Takeutchi): foresight as dynamic shared knowledge creation processes that go repeatedly through externalisation, combination, internalisation and socialisation phases in a spiral way (Eerola and Väyrynen 2002) Foresight is also defined as a process involving iterative periods of open reflection, networking, consultation and discussion, leading to the joint refining of future visions. Pre-foresight, recruitment, generation, action and renewal are the phases of the foresight process (Popper 2008). The nature of foresight methodologies varies from creative to evidence based and from expertise to interaction based methods. Popper (2008) lists and describes 33 methods From fixed to contingent and participatory approaches

4. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies “Popper’s diamond” (Popper 2008)

5. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies A systemic framework for methods (Saritas 2006)

6. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies Methods of FTA and risk assessment Risk assessment methodologies in industrial safety Risk analysis is one of the methods contributing to the FTA exercises Risk assessment and risk management concepts refer e.g. to risk assessment related to health risk, toxicology, ecology, food safety or industrial use, but also economical analysis -> here risk assessment is in the context of industrial safety Complex systems, where possible accidents may have far-reaching consequences. Strong development in the 1970s -> The use of risk analysis became a standard Different safety management standards guide the implementation of industrial safety at the plant level: BS 8800, OHSAS 18001, ISO Guides (ISO 2002 and ISO 1999), and IEC standards Various risk analysis methods: 62 methods reported by Tixier in 2002 Hazard and Operability study (IEC 2001) is one of the most important methods used in industry Resilience - the new safety paradigm

7. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies Rrisk analysis, risk assessment and risk management Ref. IEC 1995

8. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies Prospective projects illuminating synergies Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems - IRRIIS Managing opportunities, risks and uncertainties related to new businesses - INNORISK Climate change adaptation and risk assessmetn - CES A group of other projects

9. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies Case projects in view of dirrerent dimensions IRRIIS Consensual Informative Extensive Exclusive FixedAutonomous Instrumental Diverse INNORISK CES ThemostVTTforesightactivitiesanalysed byKönnöläet al.(forthcoming) Autonomous Fixed Exclusive Extensive

10. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies Towards an integrated approach What is in common? Start with the scope definition The generation phase of the FTA process resembles the hazard/risk identification phase in risk assessment - also in terms of the large methodological variety Risk estimation and FTA action phases are arranging the knowledge to be used in decision making Contingent and holistic processes Because of the global networks risk management (RM) can not be based on traditional 'identify the risks and eliminate them' -thinking (normative RM) Resilience engineering: a sure system tolerates errors or failures and protects itself against the consequences of such events (adaptive RM) Foresighting Impact Assessment - the risks are considered as emerging already in the innovation process, and cover such areas as investment, communication, trust and general development risks (VTT's new developments, proactive RM strategy) Integration with foresight -> more holistic RA and RM

11. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies RA and FTA methods vs. time frame Process/place specific risk assessment Case/technology/issue specific risk assessment Short time Long time Fixed approach Contingent approach Technology assessment Technology foresight New emerging risk assessment Technology forecast

12. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies Lessons learned from the case projects IRRIIS and CES: risk assessment methods are too detailed for analysing vague scenarios INNORISK: risk mapping may be better to be applied Similar basic assumptions in holistic future-oriented technology assessment or foresight methodologies and in holistic proactive risk assessment where safety is created in the process by evolving the intrinsic safety potential of the process Future and risks are ontologically unknown. Therefore we are forced to collect and construct the knowledge, create the understanding and sharing of it, in networks of people.

13. Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies Conclusions Common characteristics of FTA and Risk assessment: Seek to manage the uncertainty of potential futures Create knowledge to help decision making Information on changes in environment, business and society in general is crucial for both assessments Methodologically Models, workshops, brainstrorms, interviews, literature reviews.. Risk assessment methods address the systematic working methods more thoroughly Risk assessment requires more detailed description of the target A shift towards to a more contingent approach in RA - analogical with FTA To be able to assess emerging risks new methods applying the sufficient features of as well risk assessment as FTA approaches are welcome Future risk assessment Cross-boundary thinking and integration of FTA and theories of networks and organizational culture to create new methodology and tools as well as to carry out the risk assessments