1. David Kaufman Associate Administrator for Policy, Program Analysis, and International Affairs
Toward More Resilient Futures: Putting Strategic Foresight Into Practice May 13, 2013

2. Introduction: A World in Transition
ECONOMY
ENVIRONMENT
TECHNOLOGY
SECURITY
Increasing complexity and decreasing predictability
Continued resource constraints
Increasing work to address acute and chronic issues
How we assess and understand risk must change (forward looking and dynamic, not retrospective)
Coastal Population Growth
Coastal Counties comprise 17% of the nation’s land area, but now contain 53% of the U.S. population
Aging Population
The population over the age of 65 in the US is expected to increase from 12.4% in 2000 to 18.2% in 2025
Urbanization
Megaregions - There are 110 million people who live within the East coast megaregion (Florida; Northeast Megaregion and the Piedmont Atlantic Megaregion (Atlanta; South Carolina)combined) – 37% of the U.S. population – and about 53.7 million people live in the Great Lakes megaregion about 18% of the U.S. population
Megacities (over 10 million population): 3 in 1975, 21 today
For first time in human history, more people live in urban than rural areas
82% of the U.S. population lives in 11 megaregions
Reliance on Technology
Automated systems control utilities, transportation and manufacturing
84% of U.S. organizations use remote, commercial servers for data and applications
Information Access
Changing Role of the Individual:
With the growth of the internet and social media, people have created virtual communities upon which they rely for information exchange and validation
Rise of the influencers; shifts in social networks and trust
Individuals exposed to 3x as much info as in 1980s, increasing at 30% a year
Individuals create 75% of the data in the digital universe
Average individual is exposed to 3x as much information as in the 1980s
Shifting Roles
Global Interdependencies
Federal grants comprise nearly 30% of states’ general revenue
The 2011 disasters in Japan impacted auto production in the U.S. and energy policy in Germany
Thai flood affected manufacturing and sales globally
Global Health
Chronic conditions are leading causes of death rather than infectious disease
But, H1N1 was the fastest moving pandemic in history - According to the World Health Organization (WHO) the H1N1 flu pandemic was the fastest-moving pandemic ever. In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread as widely as the new H1N1 virus has spread in less than six weeks.
Growing Power and Influence of Non-State Actors
Walmart’s GDP is greater than that of Saudi Arabia
NGOs with U.N. consultative status – 1948: 41, today: 3172
80% of disaster relief donations to Japan after March 2011 earthquake/tsunami came from corporations and individuals, mostly through NGOs
44% of world’s top 100 economic entities are corporations; transnational corporations make up 25% of world GDP
Examples:
Arab uprising
45 thousand tweets were received during the first 20 seconds after the Mexican earthquake and all providing situational awareness about damage/injury – normally would take hours to confirm.
Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) mass transit shutdown/delay - Spring/Summer 2011
Maytag– after several unsuccessful attempts to resolve a basic appliance issue, a customer decided to tweet about the problem – influencing the 7 million Maytag Twitter followers – and prompting an immediate response and resolution from Maytag.
Snowball fight in DC – within hours with the use of social media several thousand people have gathered in DC for a snowball flight
International Pillow Fight Day – Since 2008, a group calling itself the Urban Playground Movement has used social media and the internet to organize a worldwide flashmob to participate in International Pillow Fight Day.

3. Strategic Drivers of Change
U.S. Demographic Shifts
Technical Development and Dependency
Changing Role of the Individual
Universal Access to/use of Information
Government Budgets
Change is driven by a number of complex processes, all of which have the potential to challenge emergency management policies and procedures. In combination, these and other forces could dramatically test the future readiness of the emergency management system as it exists today
Climate Change and Critical Infrastructure – Climate change and infrastructure degradation are shifting the nature of the risks we face.
Americans spend 4.2 billion hours stuck in traffic, an increase of 143% between 1982 and 2010; Additionally, almost 1/3 of the major roads are in poor or mediocre condition –highlighting the deficiency of the U.S. transportation infrastructure.
US Demographic Shifts – By 2050, the world will experience a near doubling of the urban population to 6.2 billion – 70% of the world’s projected population of 8.9 billion. This means that we will have to build the same urban capacity (housing, infrastructure, facilities) in the next 40 years that we have built in the past 400 years (WEF - Global Risks 2012)
Critical Infrastructure
Global Interdependencies
Evolving Terrorist Threat
Climate Change

4. Implications for Emergency Management
The composition and character of community and individual vulnerability will likely change over time
The means and methods for delivering emergency and disaster services will shift
Trust – between the government and the public – must be strengthened
New tools and opportunities will become available
These images are from the Toward More Resilient Futures document. The image on the left is from an organization called CARD – Collaborating Agencies Responding to Disasters. They are a volunteer-based organization in Oakland, CA that provides customized emergency tools and services to nonprofits, faith agencies, and others serving the Access and Functional Needs (AFN – disability) communities.
Government capabilities are limited –Every disaster challenge relies primarily upon individuals, the private sector and community organizations, down to the smallest possible scale.
Large-scale disasters involve many more partners, but the concept is similar. Government’s role – and the Federal role in particular – is limited. The level of engagement, resources and capabilities across all segments of society will largely determine success in responding to and recovering from a disaster.
Addressing these related concerns can’t be achieved by improving what we’ve always done – we must change how we go about disaster preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation by better involving the communities we serve.
BUT HOW? 4

5. The Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI)
Understand the factors driving change that will impact emergency and disaster management over a 20- year horizon
Develop a shared sense of direction and urgency in the emergency management community that enables us to drive to action
Collectively prepare for the future across multi-sectors
Plan for and take action to meet evolving needs
To begin learning more about driving forces of change that could shape our future, we launched the Strategic Foresight Initiative in 2010.
This initiative is attempting to:
Help us understand who or what will shape the future over the next 20 years so that the EM community can get ahead of those changes and plan accordingly for them
Develop a shared sense of direction and for the EM community to be prepared for what comes our way
Collectively prepare for the future
Plan for and take action to meet evolving needs
There are a number of benefits to our emergency management community as a result of SFI:
Avoid strategic surprises
Promotes information sharing across disciplines and organizations
Explores latest EM research
Understand what changes could affect emergency management
More comprehensive information to make more proactive decisions
Increased communication among interconnected EM stakeholders
Opportunity for more effective EM resource allocation
Opportunity for strategy alignment and operational collaboration across organizations
Opportunity for integrated planning for the future environment
We have been focusing on what could shape the future and what impacts they might present.
Shifting US demographics and technological innovation will challenge how we plan and communicate
Spending constraints will affect what we can do and whom we need to partner with
More frequent and intense storms will present operational challenges
Aging infrastructure will impact our ability to respond and recover

6. The SFI Approach Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
OVERVIEW OF ALL THREE PHASES (drilldown to follow):
To implement SFI, we focused on 3 phases, as outlined in this graphic – Environmental Scanning, Scenario Planning, and Advancing and Sustaining Foresight
In the environmental scanning phase we drove toward defining and researching who or what would shape the future and engaging a broad audience to help understand these topics.
We used the outputs from the research and dialogue to expand our thinking and understanding of emerging threats and opportunities, and to develop scenarios that would lead us to what our community would need to successfully operate in the future.
We have now transitioned to the Advancing and Sustaining Foresight phase as we work to expand and share our research, help align strategies with the SFI findings and further engage our stakeholders with the SFI process. Our current work is focused on “Putting Foresight Into Practice” – providing tangible tools to bridge theory and apply strategic foresight to address strategic needs.
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3

7. The SFI Approach: Phase 1
To implement SFI, we focused on 3 phases, as outlined in this graphic – Environmental Scanning, Scenario Planning, and Advancing and Sustaining Foresight
In the environmental scanning phase we drove toward defining and researching who or what would shape the future and engaging a broad audience to help understand these topics.
Outputs of this phase included the identification of the Strategic Drivers of Change mentioned during the Introduction.

8. The SFI Approach: Phase 2
To implement SFI, we have focused on 3 phases, as outlined in this graphic – Environmental Scanning, Scenario Planning, and Advancing and Sustaining Foresight
We used the outputs from the research and dialogue in Phase 1 to expand our thinking and understanding of emerging threats and opportunities, and to develop scenarios that would lead us to what our community would need to successfully operate in the future.
We produced a detailed description of these methods and the strategic needs identified, which can be found in our 2012 report: Crisis Response and Disaster Resilience 2030.

9. . Copyright 2011 The Futures Strategy Group, LLC
Scenario Planning
Predictive Planning:
Master Plan
“Most Likely” Future
Today
Scenario Planning:
Scenario planning is a method to build successful strategies and plans by rigorously exploring a broad – but plausible – range of alternative operating environments (or scenarios).
If you look at the top of this slide, too often when we only consider the future we try to predict, we think of a “most likely” future and develop a plan to meet that future’s challenges.
The problem with this is that it’s only one potential future. And if there’s one thing we know about even the best future forecast of a complex situation, it is that its going to be very wrong in one or more important aspects. So it’s very risky to plan on the basis of a single “most likely” future.
So, in SFI we followed the bottom picture - considering multiple futures and understanding what the emergency management community would need to be successful in each alternative future.
The idea is then to identify those common needs that cut across all the future scenario worlds. These form the basis upon which we should be developing our strategies and plans around, because they promise to be enduring and reliable guides for investment and action NO MATTER HOW THE FUTURE ACTUALLY TURNS OUT.
Members of the emergency management community customized scenarios we borrowed from USCG to make them applicable to emergency and disaster management.
We hosted a scenario workshop with nearly 60 participants to discuss the alternative futures and to identify challenges, opportunities, and what the community would NEED to do their jobs in these worlds.
Once these strategic needs were identified for each scenario, the SFI team synthesized the data and came up with the 15 strategic needs that applied across all 5 scenarios - those issues or areas the EM community should address to position itself to meet future challenges and take advantage of future opportunities.
The 15 strategic needs were grouped under 3 categories: 1) Essential Capabilities, 2) Innovative Models and Tools, and 3) Dynamic Partnerships.
Today
Multiple Futures
Strategic Needs & Actions
. Copyright 2011 The Futures Strategy Group, LLC

10. Essential Capabilities
SFI 15 Strategic Needs
Essential Capabilities
Develop EM capabilities to address population and migratory shifts
Practice omni-directional knowledge sharing
Infuse EM practices and skills across the entire educational experience
Build a shared future vision with plans and contingencies
Leverage volunteer capabilities across all EM phases
Develop EM capabilities to address dynamic population shifts: Emergency managers will be faced with complex demographic shifts as the U.S. population increases, ages, and becomes more culturally and linguistically diverse.
Practice omni-directional knowledge-sharing: The proliferation of information from all sources intensifies the need to make emergency management information useful and accessible. The public’s role as an information source will be vital.
Infuse EM practices and skills across the entire educational experience: In an expectedly tight fiscal environment, schools will be critically important channels for promoting sound prevention practices, esp in the face of complex threats, like pandemics.
Build a shared EM future vision with appropriate plans and contingencies: The SFI scenarios depict increasingly complex, rapidly changing world. Emergency managers will have to collaboratively explore innovative solutions as it prepares for the future.

11. Innovative Models & Tools
SFI 15 Strategic Needs
Innovative Models & Tools
Adopt new risk management tools to manage complex event consequences
Employ alternative surge models
Promote EM inter-operability across all boundaries
Plan around share interests
Remediate vulnerabilities across EM supply chains and critical infrastructure
Adopt new risk management tools to manage complex event consequences: Current risk management tools and processes are already outdated. For one, current risk management models do not account for climate change impacts we are experiencing today.
Employ alternative surge models: Chronic fiscal pressures require new approaches and models for marshaling resources to deal with the possibility of more frequent and complex emergencies.
Promote EM interoperability across all boundaries: Emergency managers will likely have to do more with few resources. Resource sharing arrangements across jurisdictions—equipment, personnel, know-how, etc—are essential.
Plan around shared interests for maximum use of EM capabilities: Current regional planning approaches are limited. Planners need to look beyond short term concerns and narrow stovepipes and capitalize on opportunities for collaboration.
Remediate vulnerabilities across EM supply chains and critical infrastructure: Global and national supply chains for emergency management may be vulnerable to infrastructure degradation, interruptions in foreign trade, cyber attacks, and changes in warehousing and logistics practices.

12. SFI 15 Strategic Needs Dynamic Partnerships
Influence development of emerging technologies
Empower individuals and communities to play a greater role throughout all phases of disasters
Proactively engage business in all EM phases, especially policy development
Intensify disaster-response collaboration with Canada and Mexico
Enable access to military capabilities to augment capacity as needed
Influence development of emerging, EM-relevant technologies: Technology will become an even more essential element across emergency and disaster mission functions—information management, communications, sensing, transportation and logistics, and much more.
Empower individuals and communities to play a greater role throughout all phases of disasters: Resource constraints and reduced government capacity challenge individuals and communities to assume greater responsibility for emergency planning and response.
Proactively engage business in all EM phases, especially policy development: Strong private sector partnerships will be essential, especially in policy and planning. Business leads in many critical technologies and processes, such as data management and logistics.
Intensify disaster-response collaboration with Canada and Mexico: US shares many interests with Canada and Mexico around immigration, border security, drought, water management, disease surveillance, and critical infrastructure. Potential for fruitful collaboration and win-win solutions about.
Enable access to military capabilities to augment capacity as needed: Complex emergency and disaster situations, including WMDs and cyber-attacks, provide merit for broader access to the military for both surge capacity and specialized skill sets.

13. The SFI Approach: Phase 3
2013
Putting Foresight Into Practice X
2012
WEBINARS PRESENTATIONS EXERCISES NEWSLETTERS

14. Putting Foresight Into Practice
The document highlights SFI’s last year of work, and represents a major step forward in making our body of knowledge more practical and actionable.
With a focus on practical applications of foresight, the document has three Feature sections that aim to:
Spark future-thinking and discussion about recent key trends, and what they may signal for the United States over the coming years (Feature 1);
Spotlight efforts from the Whole Community that exemplify how we can develop the capabilities, tools, and partnerships to meet our future strategic needs (Feature 2);
Inspire our community into action by profiling innovators working to solve big problems and build resilience (Feature 3). 14

15. Feature 1: Sustaining Foresight
An analysis of emerging trends and what they may signal for the U.S. and disaster resilience over the coming years
4 vignettes, each containing a pair of dueling storylines, and offering a lens to consider many potential futures
ECONOMY
TECHNOLOGY
As we reflected on recent events, we recognized that the most influential trends clustered around dominant themes. And these themes, backed by research, often played out along different, yet deeply intertwined storylines. For instance, are America’s recent economic troubles actually symptoms of a Great Stagnation? Will the rise of fast, mobile computing push us into a new era of Technotopia? Synthesizing our analysis into a narrative framework offered the most compelling way to provoke critical thinking about our future challenges, opportunities, and what they mean for how we do business.
ENVIRONMENT
SECURITY 15

16. Feature 2: Future Needs in Practice
Spotlights efforts from the Whole Community that exemplify how individuals, organizations, and governments can develop capabilities, tools, and partnerships to meet our strategic needs.
Feature 2 – SFI developed 15 strategic needs that identify requirements for success across a range of futures (see Appendix B for details). These 15 strategic needs—grouped into Essential Capabilities, Innovative Models and Tools, and Dynamic Partnerships—serve as guideposts to inform our planning, investments, and actions so that we can deal with the changing demands of the future operating environment. A core part of SFI is to seek and promote success stories of real world applications of these strategic needs.
10 anecdotes captured here are independent efforts that emerged organically—because people and organizations sought to deliver better solutions to existing challenges. They represent a diverse spectrum of organizations and causes—from non-profits to education and disaster response. We believe they are models that can be leveraged, replicated, or scaled to help move us toward more resilient futures. Each offers concrete outcomes sought or achieved as well as key success factors.
Feature 2 –ds Inspire our community into action by profiling innovators working to solve big issues and make our Nation more resilient. A key piece of the Whole Community approach to emergency management is the recognition that government-centric efforts cannot fully meet the challenges posed by disasters. Scattered throughout the Whole Community—including disaster survivors like Caitria O’Neill on Page 26—are many individuals who are innately innovative and interested in delivering better solutions that improve how our Nation manages disasters.
By profiling innovators from the Whole Community, we recognize the extraordinary contributions that individuals make to enhance our national resilience. Whether it’s by improving government collaboration, developing better business services, or serving the unique needs of their communities, these innovators are undoubtedly leaders—taking bold action to solve big-ticket issues. We applaud their work and passion, and hope their stories and ideas resonate with others across the EM community. 16

17. Feature 3: Big Problems. Strong Leaders. Bold Action.
Aims to inspire our community into action by profiling innovators working to solve big, complex issues.
The spirit of this feature recognizes that government- centric efforts cannot fully meet the challenges posed by disasters.
The 7 innovators are only a small, but motivating sample.
Their stories capture the extraordinary contributions of individuals working to improve government collaboration, develop better business services, or serve the unique needs of their communities.
Feature 2 – SFI developed 15 strategic needs that identify requirements for success across a range of futures (see Appendix B for details). These 15 strategic needs—grouped into Essential Capabilities, Innovative Models and Tools, and Dynamic Partnerships—serve as guideposts to inform our planning, investments, and actions so that we can deal with the changing demands of the future operating environment. A core part of SFI is to seek and promote success stories of real world applications of these strategic needs.
10 anecdotes captured here are independent efforts that emerged organically—because people and organizations sought to deliver better solutions to existing challenges. They represent a diverse spectrum of organizations and causes—from non-profits to education and disaster response. We believe they are models that can be leveraged, replicated, or scaled to help move us toward more resilient futures. Each offers concrete outcomes sought or achieved as well as key success factors.
Feature 2 –aims to inspire our community into action by profiling innovators working to solve big issues and make our Nation more resilient. A key piece of the Whole Community approach to emergency management is the recognition that government-centric efforts cannot fully meet the challenges posed by disasters. Scattered throughout the Whole Community—including disaster survivors--are many individuals who are innately innovative and interested in delivering better solutions that improve how our Nation manages disasters.
By profiling innovators from the Whole Community, we recognize the extraordinary contributions that individuals make to enhance our national resilience. Whether it’s by improving government collaboration, developing better business services, or serving the unique needs of their communities, these innovators are undoubtedly leaders—taking bold action to solve big-ticket issues. We applaud their work and passion, and hope their stories and ideas resonate with others across the EM community. 17

18. Putting Foresight into Practice
4 strategic goals for 2013 and beyond:
Advance FEMA and the Whole Community’s knowledge of future trends and drivers of change
Actively use and promote foresight in FEMA planning and decision-making processes
Promote state, local, tribal, and territorial applications of foresight
Provide tools to facilitate the use of foresight across the Whole Community 18

19. The Future Strategic Environment
How do you envision our future landscape?
How will these changes impact your operating environment?
How can we position ourselves for success, now and in the future?
What are some examples you’ve seen of foresight put into practice?

20. Join the Conversation FEMA-OPPA-SFI@fema.dhs.gov
To get involved in SFI please visit our online dialogue on IdeaScale and/or contact the SFI team at to be included in the SFI Community to receive updates about SFI and upcoming engagement activities.

21. Backup Slides