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June 3, 2012 Inside Index Levels F I N T R U S T BROKERAGE SERVICES LLC Disclaimer DO NOT DISTRIBUTE. This material is intended for the recipient only.

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Presentation on theme: "June 3, 2012 Inside Index Levels F I N T R U S T BROKERAGE SERVICES LLC Disclaimer DO NOT DISTRIBUTE. This material is intended for the recipient only."— Presentation transcript:

1 June 3, 2012 Inside Index Levels F I N T R U S T BROKERAGE SERVICES LLC Disclaimer DO NOT DISTRIBUTE. This material is intended for the recipient only. Distribution to unauthorized persons may violate applicable securities laws and regulations. This material was prepared by FinTrustBrokerages Services, LLC (“FinTrust”) and is excluded from the definition of “research report” found in NASD Rule 2711. This material does not constitute research and is not intended to form the basis for any investment decision. The data and information contained herein was obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but FinTrust does not guarantee its accuracy and/or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security referred to herein. FinTrust and its associated persons and affiliates do not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from any use of this material. FinTrust and/or its officers, directors, and employees (including, without limitation, persons involved in the preparation of this material) may from time to time have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities mentioned herein and/or derivatives (including options) and other instruments related thereto. FinTrust Brokerage Services, LLC is a member of FINRA and SIPC. Our mission is to produce original, unbiased, thought-provoking observations that will unlock the message of the markets. Our view is neither bullish nor bearish, our goal is to uncover potential ideas and opportunities for our clients. MacroView: Reading Between the Lines SP 5001,630.74 10 Yr2.164% Gold1,392.6 DXY83.375 US 10 Yr US Dollar Index Nikkei US Financials v. Far East Financials US Financials v. US REITs SP 500 v. Brazil SP 500 v. Emerging Markets Brent Crude Gold and Gold Miners

2 F I N T R U S T BROKERAGE SERVICES LLC 2 Summary Recent movements in the markets have been swift, leaving many investors ill- prepared for higher volatility. Global interest rates are rising, foreign currencies are declining against the USD, and global equity markets are dropping. While the S&P is performing well on the surface, the internals of the market are showing erratic movements across sectors. Will this current volatility usher in a new wave of increasingly turbulent markets? In terms of the US market, there have been warning signs over the past several weeks indicating current trends will not hold. We are now starting to see the correction on an absolute level. With the underperformance of the global markets relative to the S&P widening to 2009 extremes, we are now at a crossroads. If the rest of the world does not begin to stabilize, there is a heightened risk of weakening in the S&P. During a rising market, relative performance is what matters most to portfolio managers. If the market rises by 10%, a fund manager ultimately strives to beat their respective benchmark. During bear markets, the focus shifts toward ABSOLUTE performance. Different strategies become necessary for different markets. Our goal is to provide an outline that helps guide you through these shifting markets.

3 F I N T R U S T BROKERAGE SERVICES LLC 3 US 10YR Recent back-up in 10yr yields, either due to economic or confidence issues, is having a dramatic impact on the Financial markets US 10YR currently testing secondary resistance at the 2.20%-2.40% range US Dollar Index USD Index challenging CRITICAL RESISTANCE LEVELS Possible USD Index Head and Shoulders bottoming pattern targets 92 zone Higher Yields + Higher USD = historically has led to a liquidity event for global markets US 10Yr YLD and US Dollar Index (July 2008 – Present) LEFT HEAD RIGHT

4 F I N T R U S T BROKERAGE SERVICES LLC 4 Nikkei 225 13% correction caused tremors across many intermarket spreads US Financials vs MSCI Far East Financials Index Lack of confidence in Bank of Japan and its Asian neighbors’ monetary policies could be a watershed event US Financials vs US REITs Lumber, down nearly 30% from its March peak, has been a headwind toward REIT outperformance Every Action Causes a Reaction: Nikkei Correction and the Relative Outperformance of US Financials Recent back up in Global Bond YLDs has caused a rotation within the interest rate sensitive groups to the detriment of REITS and related to the RELATIVE benefit of banks Nikkei has risen over 75% since November of 2012. While the correction was overdue, it might be the start of something more meaningful. US Financials have outperformed Asian financials by 20% since the Nikkei peak Nikkei Absolute Performance US Financials Relative to Far East Financials Index US Financials Relative to US REITs

5 F I N T R U S T BROKERAGE SERVICES LLC 5 SP 500 Support 1 1625 Support 2 1600 Resistance 1 1650 Resistance 2 1675 Sector Performance MTD SPX +3.26% Materials +3.73% Energy +4.48% Financials +7.30% Industrials +6.40% Technology +3.70% Staples -2.08% Utilities -8.14% Healthcare +2.73% Cons Discretionary +3.31% REITs -5.85 Transports + 4.55% Gold Miners -.51% In the month of May, it didn’t matter IF you were long or short, but, WHAT you were long or short Since the recent lows in November 2012, the SP500 has had 3 corrections of nearly 3% that brought the index to within 6% of its 200dma. The current correction of about 3% still leaves the index almost 9% from its 200dma. SP 500: 8 Month Performance

6 F I N T R U S T BROKERAGE SERVICES LLC 6 Bouncing Ball or a Safe?: SP 500 Relative to Brazil (EWZ) SP500/Brazil Testing upper end of channel resistance after rallying over 100% from July 2010 lows Recent internal rotations have sent a clear warning of pause and possible peak in absolute price performance While the SP500 is making 10YR highs, the Brazilian market is currently testing 3YR lows The SP500 has outperformed the Brazilian Market by over 65% since the US Dollar Bottomed in April of 2010 (Vertical Blue Line) Should Brazil break support, the SP500 will have a harder time generating ABSOLUTE gains SP 500 Absolute Performance Brazil (EWZ) Absolute Performance Brazil (EWZ) Relative to SP 500 SP 500 currently 8.5% above 200dma USD bottomed April 2011 Brazil down over 65% RELATIVE to SP 500 since Oct 2010 Trend remains down yet looks to be entering exhaustion zone. Capitulation may be ahead.

7 F I N T R U S T BROKERAGE SERVICES LLC 7 Emerging Markets (EEM) Abolute and Relative to SP500 - Brent Crude EMERGING MARKETS (EEM) Consolidation continues with directional resolution coming soon Support 1 40 Support 2 37 Resistance 44 Resistance 46 EEM vs SP500 Emerging Markets have underperformed the SP500 and are currently testing 2009 relative spread levels Overall spreads seem to lean towards a washout and upcoming reversal BRENT Crude testing support at 100 Break of support will most likely coincide with a break in overall equity markets EEM Absolute Performance EEM Relative to SP500 Brent Crude Performance

8 F I N T R U S T BROKERAGE SERVICES LLC 8 GOLD (USD) and the GOLD MINERS (GDX) GOLD KEY SUPPORT remains 1325-1350 zone Close ABOVE 1425 would be a ST bullish reversal targeting 1450- 1475 Many outside asset classes are impacting the daily action in the GOLD space Discipline over conviction GOLD MINERS (GDX) Massive underperformance YTD Relative and absolute levels holding firm the past several weeks Close ABOVE 31 would be a bullish development


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