1. Pre-flight and In- flight use of CAT Forecasts Turbulence Workshop NCAR, Boulder CO By: Ian Gray Senior Portfolio Manager SITA Aircraft Services

2. Overview Introduction to SITA Overview of FMS Wind Uplink Our experiences with uplink of trial CAT data Thoughts so far & next steps Questions 2| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013

3. AIRLINES GOVERNMENTS GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS AIRPORTS AEROSPACE INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AIR CARGO Who We Are SITA is owned by the air transport industry As a unique hybrid commercial-cooperative model We work collaboratively with: AIR NAVIGATION SERVICE PROVIDERS AIRCRAFT & AIRFRAME MAKERS 3| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013

4. Background SITA provides an FMS Wind Uplink service, providing updated forecast wind data to the FMS, using standard AEEC format, at each GRIB2 update cycle Data presentation is tailored to the varying capabilities of each FMS equipment type e.g. Honeywell variation in waypoint support between Boeing and Airbus versions of the ‘same’ equipment Provision of updated forecast wind data provides the FMS with a more accurate view of the wind conditions ahead Winds aloft predictions are interpolated to each waypoint and weighted based on horizontal, vertical and temporal proximity of each waypoint to the source data reference points 4| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013 Waypoint GRIB ‘area’ GRIB reference points Prognosis

5. Background (cont’d) Updated wind forecasts showing more favorable conditions vs. the original flight plan provide opportunities for fuel saving with on-time arrival Wind updates showing less favorable conditions vs. the original flight plan give early warning of the potential for greater fuel burn Anecdotal evidence from participating airlines have shown an average improvement of 100kg fuel usage across a mixed long/medium/short haul fleet (<1hr to 12+ hours sectors) Measured peak savings for wide body aircraft on long haul sectors @ 400-600kg 5| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013

6. Wind Uplink Comparison: Separate flight plan provider; separate WAFC model data 6| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013 Wind Uplink – updated forecast Wind Uplink based on same data as CFP

7. Wind Uplink Comparison: Separate flight plan provider; separate WAFC model data 7| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013 Wind Uplink – updated forecast Wind Uplink based on same data as CFP

8. CAT Uplink Feedback from airlines using Wind Uplink highlighted a desire to evaluate the test CAT forecast product included in our WAFC data in conjunction with wind updates It is difficult to present CAT data in the cockpit environment: CAT data capability isn’t native to FMS equipment EFB programmes are very varied among airlines in terms of applications, devices and connectivity In order to quickly establish a trial of CAT that could easily be applied to the majority of aircraft equipment types, we developed a simple solution around the cockpit printer / MCDU 8| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013

9. CAT Uplink CAT data is provided either independently or in addition to a corresponding FMS Wind Uplink Data is provided for 3 ‘swathes’ of flight levels, centred around the cruise level The CAT values are interpolated horizontally to each waypoint position, weighting values according to proximity 9| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013 Turbulence forecast taken at 07/05/2013 1838Z using Forecast 1200Z CAT forecast updated daily at 0530 1130 1730 2330 UTC Aircraft registration: XX-XXX //ALL DATA PROVIDED IS FOR EVALUATION ONLY// FL FL FL 280-320 320-360 360-410 AVG-MAX AVG-MAX AVG-MAX ------- ------- ------- RUDAS SOKIM MNV 1.0-3.7 BUGRO VUE AMSUX VORVI ONRON GURUT AMLOD -1.4 -1.8 AMSIK -2.0 -3.6 USMAK -1.2 -2.3 KENUK DELIS -4.1 AGRIM -2.4 INISA NEBRA 1.2-5.0 -3.6 TOBUK -1.8 2.0-6.0 3.2-6.0 TIDOU -3.9 BOD -2.0 -3.6 1.3-4.8 SOMIL -3.9 1.3-4.7 -2.2 NITAR -3.9 1.0-4.4 -1.8

10. CAT Uplink Trials From the test cases we have run with participating airlines, we have found the following: We have observed evidence of greater accuracy of forecast CAT in the WAFC data for those areas with good source data coverage The captured actual data vs. forecast data indicates a correlation between the forecast probability values and the experienced severity of CAT 10| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013

11. CAT Uplink Trials 11| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013 Actual vs. Forecast – area of good source data coverage

12. CAT Uplink Trials 12| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013 Actual vs. Forecast – area of poor source data coverage

13. CAT Uplink Trials 13| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013 Actual vs. Forecast – wider data capture (seatbelt on/off)

14. CAT Uplink Trials 14| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013 Actual vs. Forecast – wider data capture (crew annotations)

15. CAT in Flight Planning In addition to showing where CAT is predicted to be, airlines also want to know where it isn’t! Knowledge of CAT at various levels adds value to the flight planning process: Many pilots will instinctively climb to avoid areas of CAT Some aircraft perform more economically below optimum cruise than above Factoring in wing loading values of different aircraft types can dictate tolerance values for passenger operations 15| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013

16. Conclusions so far… Uplink of CAT data is useful in strategic decision making as it provides data that is sometimes contrary to a pilot’s instinctive reaction to CAT CAT forecasts (at least, at 1.25 resolution) aren’t yet good enough on which to base a flight plan calculation – at present its value lies as an uplink to provide pilots with a more general view The GRIB 2 test CAT data works quite well when considered holistically rather than reading the data literally Graphical representation of both clear air and convective turbulence fits well into an EFB solution, however for many airlines this poses practical problems Suitable EFB solution Cost (and sometimes availability) of bandwidth 16| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013

17. Next steps… Extend trials to use of higher resolution source data Currently looking into the possibility of ingesting high resolution CAT forecast to evaluate the impact on data accuracy Removes the need to present average and max values 17| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013

18. QUESTIONS? 18| Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013