1. WRI Climate Change: A Perspective from the USA National Climate Conference, BASIC Side Event Gallagher Estate, Johannesburg, South Africa October, 2005 Jonathan Pershing Climate, Energy and Pollution Program World Resources Institute http://www.wri.org BAS I C

2. WRI US Climate Related Indicators 2

3. WRI The US contributes the largest share of global GHG emissions… Rest of the World US (20%) Global GHG Emissions Source: WRI/CAIT, 2000 Data

4. WRI Emissions Mix % Share of Fuel Mix Source: IEA Statistics 4 Source: WRI/CAIT

5. WRI Change over 20 th Century: Annual Mean Temperature ºF

6. WRI US Projected Emissions According to USDOE, emissions will grow about 1.4%/year, or 42% over the next 25 years Million tons CO2 (from energy)

7. WRI U.S. Climate Change Policies 7

8. WRI Bush Administration Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives (1) Goal: to reduce US GHG intensity by 18% by 2012 –Equivalent to ~4% reduction relative to BaU –Total emissions increase by 31% over 1990 levels –Further measures in 2012 if target not met Voluntary initiatives –Improve voluntary registry (provide baseline to give credits for real reduction; likely to require legislation) –Climate VISION Partnership (12 sectors and BRT work with EPA, DOE, DOT and USDA to reduce GHG emissions) –Climate Leaders (EPA corporate partnership with individual companies; 50 companies now participating) Fuel economy standards for light trucks (20.7mpg 22.2mpg by 2007) Tax incentives for GHG reductions (RE, EE and sequestration)

9. WRI Bush Administration Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives (2) Methane to Markets : Ministerial kickoff, November 2004 US Climate Technology Program (CCTP) –Strategic direction and organization for about $3bn in federal spending for climate change-related technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment –Six complementary goals: (1) reducing emissions from energy use and infrastructure; (2) reducing emissions from energy supply; (3) capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide; (4) reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases; (5) measuring and monitoring emissions; and (6) bolstering the contributions of basic science to climate change.

10. WRI Bush Administration Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives (3) Nuclear: –Fission: Generation IV: multilateral partnership for next generation nuclear power –Fusion: $5 Bn committed in 2003 for multi-year research program Hydrogen economy –$1.7 Bn, 5-year initiative for hydrogen fuel and Freedom Car Carbon capture and storage –$1 Bn, 10-year Future-gen demonstration project for zero- emissions coal-based power –Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum Including data gathering, information exchange and joint projects 15 partner countries

11. WRI USG Roadmap for Climate Change Technology Development and Deployment for the 21st Century Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005

12. WRI US Climate Technology Budget 2004 (Actual)2005 (Proposed) Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005 US DOE Other Agencies $ Million

13. WRI Proposed congressional policies GHG reduction GHG Reporting Supporting International Negotiations Energy Policy Appropriations Power Plants Transport Hydrogen Clean Coal Carbon Sequestration Buildings Waste recycling Science/Research

14. WRI McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act Summary: –A bill establishing a market-driven system of greenhouse gas tradeable allowances –Cap: at 2000 levels by 2010 Voting History: –October 2003: 43-55 –June 2005: 38 - 60

15. WRI Sense of the Senate (Vote 54-43) Congress finds that (1) greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing average temperatures to rise at a rate outside the range of natural variability and are posing a substantial risk of rising sea-levels, altered patterns of atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts; (2) there is a growing scientific consensus that human activity is a substantial cause of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere; and (3) mandatory steps will be required to slow or stop the growth of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Sense of the Senate Congress should enact a comprehensive and effective national program of mandatory, market-based limits and incentives on emissions of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse the growth of such emissions at a rate and in a manner that (1)will not significantly harm the United States economy; and (2)will encourage comparable action by other nations that are major trading partners and key contributors to global emissions. -- US Senate: June 2005

16. WRI California Policies Transport –Starting in 2003,10% light duty vehicles to be zero emitting –15% of buses with zero emissions by 2008 Registry of GHGs (CCAR) RPS: 20% by 2017 $62 million public research program Carbon adder ($48-25/ton – in draft)

17. WRI Goal: A regional cap-and- trade program initially covering CO 2 emissions from power plants –Stabilize emissions at current levels through 2015 –Reduce by 10% by 2020 Region statistics: –9 states represent 14% US GHG emissions –3.2% of world GHG emissions ( Germany) Others are experimenting too 17

18. WRI Greenhouse Gas Inventories Source: Pew Climate Center

19. WRI Climate Action Plans Source: Pew Climate Center

20. WRI Renewable Energy Mandates Source: Pew Climate Center

21. WRI U.S. Climate Change Mitigation Potential 21

22. WRI US Renewable Resources Geothermal Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005

23. WRI Proposed LNG Terminals

24. WRI Natural Gas Flow Patterns in 2004

25. WRI Efficiency Gains Are Possible 58%36% 31% Tons CO2 Eq./Mill. Intl $ Source : WRI/CAIT

26. WRI Potential for CCS Coal powers more than ½ of all US electric supply, and is responsible for 20% of US emissions By 2030, additions to US coal- based electric generation will produce ~1000 MT of additional CO 2 Zero emissions technology, if applied across all new plants could reduce these emissions Development of this technology could have applications around the world

27. WRI Chicago Climate Exchange Carbon Financial Instruments - Market Data Price : Per metric ton of CO 2, November 1 - 5, 2004 VintageLastChangeChange % 2003$1.49-0.04-2.61% 2004$1.36-0.09-6.21% 2005$1.35-0.10-6.90% 2006$1.36-0.09-6.21% Volume: 44,700 metric tons CO 2 The Private Sector Is Also Acting

28. WRI

29. WRI 290 corporate facilities across 25 states & DC are buying green power State with green power/ REC purchase or project

30. WRI Conclusions Emissions in the US continue to rise, and policies are not keeping pace. –The executive branch is particularly slow to adopt programs, although it has begun to develop a more aggressive technology approach –Congress is acting, although little new legislation has been passed –State efforts are increasing, and seem likely to continue to increase –Private sector commitments are increasing It is likely that US policy will shift, but significant change does not seem likely until after this Administration leaves office 30