12 Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth % Percent change from 2000Figure Projected Emissions of GHGs in 2025Source: WRI, Baumert et al, 2005
13 “Heat index” combines temperature and humidity to measure discomfort “Heat index” combines temperature and humidity to measure discomfort. Washington DC July heat index was 87°F in 1970, reaches about 98°F in a 2xCO2 world and 110°F in a 4xCO2 world. Under BAU, we’re headed for 4x.
14 Drought ExpectationsThe Palmer Index is most effective in determining long term drought—a matter of several months—and is not as good with short-term forecasts (a matter of weeks). It uses a 0 as normal, anddrought is shown in terms of minus numbers; for example, minus 2 is moderate drought, minus3 is severe drought, and minus 4 is extreme drought.
18 Bush Administration Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives Goal: to reduce US GHG intensity by 18% by 2012Equivalent to ~4% reduction relative to BaUTotal emissions increase by 31% over 1990 levelsFurther measures in 2012 if target not metVoluntary initiativesImprove voluntary registry (provide baseline to give “credits” for real reduction; likely to require legislation)Climate VISION Partnership (12 sectors and BRT work with EPA, DOE, DOT and USDA to reduce GHG emissions)Climate Leaders (EPA corporate partnership with individual companies; 50 companies now participating)Fuel economy standards for light trucks (20.7mpg 22.2mpg by 2007)Tax incentives for GHG reductions (RE, EE and sequestration)The Climate Convention was adopted in 1992 after a remarkably brief 18-month gestation in the international negotiating process. It has a number of key provisions – perhaps none more important than its objective to “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” and in timeframe “sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”The Convention also imposed a non-binding aim on the developed nations – to return to 1990 levels by the end of the decade. While countries have not met this objective, (as seen in a subsequent figure), they have taken policies and measures to mitigate emissions. And it is the UNFCCC reporting obligations which allow us to ascertain our progress in meeting reductions objectives.The UNFCCC remains the underlying agreement on climate – applying to all of the more than 180 countries that have ratified it.
19 USG Roadmap for Climate Change Technology Development and Deployment for the 21st Century Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005
22 Numerous Proposals have been made in the US Congress… …although few have passed GHG reductionGHG ReportingSupporting International NegotiationsEnergy PolicyAppropriationsPower PlantsTransportHydrogenClean CoalCarbon SequestrationBuildingsWaste recyclingScience/Research
23 McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act Summary:A bill establishing a market-driven system of greenhouse gas tradable allowancesCap: at 2000 levels by 2010Voting History:October 2003:June 2005:
24 Sense of the Senate (Vote 54-43) Congress finds that—(1) greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing average temperatures to rise… and are posing a substantial risk…;(2) there is a growing scientific consensus that human activity is a substantial cause…; and(3) mandatory steps will be required to slow or stop the growth of greenhouse gas emissions ….Sense of the SenateCongress should enact a comprehensive and effective national program of mandatory, market-based limits and incentives on emissions of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse the growth of such emissions….-- US Senate: June 2005
25 The Safe Climate Act of 2006 (H.R. 5642, Rep Waxman) Freeze U.S. GHG emissions in 2010 at the 2009 levels. Beginning 2011, cuts emissions by roughly 2% per year (reaching 1990 emissions levels by 2020). After 2020, cuts emissions by roughly 5% per year (by 2050, emissions will be 80% lower than in 1990).Implemented by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through:Cap-and-trade program (with auctioned permit revenues supporting “Climate Reinvestment Fund”)Standards for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles that are at least as stringent as the current California standards. EPA must tighten these standards in 2014 and periodically thereafter.Standards requiring an increasing proportion of electricity to be generated from renewable energy sources, reaching 20% in 2020. Standards requiring utilities to obtain, each year, 1% of their energy supplies through end use energy efficiency improvements
26 Lugar-Biden Resolution (Introduced November, 2005; passed from committee May, 2005) It is the sense of the senate that the US should act to reduce the...risks posed by climate change…by:(1) participating in negotiations under the UNFCCC …and leading efforts in other international fora with the objective of securing United States participation in agreements that(a) advance and protect economic and national security interests(b) establish mitigation commitments by all countries that are major emitters(c) establish flexible international market mechanisms to minimize the costs(d) achieve significant longer term reductions
28 Renewable Energy Mandates Many states have requirements for renewable energy in their electricity portfolios.Source: Pew Climate Center
29 States with Biofuel Mandates Ethanol MandatesBiodiesel MandatesSource: WRI, CAIT
30 US Renewable Resources Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005Geothermal
31 US market developing too Goal: A regional cap-and-trade program initially covering CO2 emissions from power plantsStabilize emissions at base levels through 2014Reduce by 10% by 2018Region statistics:7 states represent 7% US total GHG emissions 1.5% of world GHG emissions ( Australia, rank 15th)Other states: MD (just signed), MA (expected to rejoin with new governor)31
32 California Policies Transport Registry of GHGs (CCAR) RPS: 20% by 2017 Starting in 2003,10% light duty vehicles to be zero emitting15% of buses with zero emissions by 2008Registry of GHGs (CCAR)RPS: 20% by 2017$62 million public research program
34 Fox News Climate Change Poll (October 25-26, 2005) “Do you think the Globalwarming situation is bestdescribed as a crisis, amajor problem, or is it notproblem at all?”“Who do you think shouldbe mostly responsible forprotecting the nation’senvironment?”
35 US Shareholder Resolutions on Climate Change 3530252015105199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005Source: WRI based on Investor Network on Climate Risk
37 Concluding CommentsClimate change impacts are already being seen in the US, and are projected to become more severeFederal action is limited: The Bush Administration has paid only lip service to the problem, and Congress, while authoring many proposals, has passed very fewMost climate efforts are at the State and local level; these are beginning to shape both pubic opinion and corporate behavior.For the foreseeable future, the US is likely to operate in a highly fragmented policy regime, including combinations of government regulations, markets and technology, augmented by private sector initiatives; these will vary from State to State and sector to sector.Ultimately, the race is between effective policy and emissions reductions, and climate change and increased impacts. So far, impacts are winning.This may change in the next presidential election – but perhaps less than many would wish as a result of the entrenched nature of the US energy sector in the economy