1. Evo Devo Universe? A Speculative Framework for Thinking about the Future in a World of Accelerating Technological Change Bay Area Future Salon SAP Labs  Palo Alto, CA April 2009 John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

2. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) futures studies, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and 2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we may use to create unique and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable developmental destinations. Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include: – Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity in our global sociotechnological systems – Increasing technological autonomy, and – Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical- digital interface.

3. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and complexity and systems theorists who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental (significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its subsystems. © 2009 Accelerating.org Improving foresight through better theories of universal change.

4. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit My Talk Goals and Motivations To better understand the universe and its opposing and balancing processes. To ask if the following process concepts make sense: – universal progress/intelligence improvement – accelerating progress/intelligence improvement – universal evolution and development – evolutionary process (purpose, teleology) – developmental destiny (purpose, teleology) To understand the levers that are most rapidly and powerfully moving the world in a progressive direction. To learn how to make better personal, organizational, and democratic decisions to support positive change.

5. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit My Talk Goals and Motivations - II To better understand evil, imbalance, and maladaptiveness within a theory of universal evolution and development. To better understand and assess global and societal risks and risk management (vigilance, resiliency), within the context of historical accelerating progress (apparent intrinsic developmental immune systems). To understand the apparent balance between: – accelerating experimentation/creativity/evolution – accelerating adaptation/intelligence/progress, and – accelerating sustainability/immunity/resiliency (noting that we have yet to well articulate this last concept). To learn how to live more balanced lives individually, organizationally and culturally, and to have goals consistent with the goals of the universe we are embedded within. To know our developmental limits and constraints.

6. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit My Talk Goals and Motivations - III To improve the precision and clarity of the main hypotheses (IPU, EDU, and DS hypotheses). To make specific predictions (how things must happen) and retrodictions (how things must have happened) from the hypotheses, which can be falsified or verified. To recruit other publishing scholars to join us in conversations on these topics at EvoDevoUniverse.com To recruit thoughtful folks to read and comment on my book, Evo Devo Universe, at books.accelerating.org (2010).books.accelerating.org To tell better stories about the future (to improve our collective social foresight). To recruit everyone to join us in telling better stories about the future at futurepedia.org (2010).

7. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Serenity Prayer in an Evo Devo Universe: Negotiating Bottlenecks, Variation, and Adaptation “ Universe, grant me the serenity to accept and understand the framework of things I can ’ t change (devo bottlenecks, what the universe wants) the courage to create the things I want inside this framework (as evo/creation is as basic to the universe as devo/maintenance of the system/ constraint), and the wisdom to adapt well (gain plasticity and resiliency, thrive in both punctuation and equilibrium) in my (finite individual, indefinite collective) time. ”

8. 2020-2050 Scenarios The Valuecosm Society / The Symbiotic Age

9. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The IA-AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity,’ a Human-Machine Superorganism Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994 Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, ants, and other social animals are parts of “superorganisms.” Increasingly, they can’t be understood apart from the structures their genetics compel them to construct. Their developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony.

10. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Understanding Process Automation Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”). Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “7/8 comes from technical progress.” Human contribution (20%?) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound

11. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Biologically-Inspired Technology and Evo Devo Computing: The Next Frontier Today we have weakly biologically-inspired computing technologies (neural nets, genetic algorithms, developmental genetic programming, belief networks, support vector machines, evolvable hardware, etc.) When such systems become: Strongly biologically-inspired Extensively self-improving (semi-autonomous) Leading strategies for creating complex systems Only then may the “technological singularity” be near. For more, attend:

12. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit How do you get stability/safety in an evolutionary system? Select for symbiosis. Look at how we do it in domesticated animals (10,000 years, 5,000 breeding cycles). How many breeds of dogs and cats can you trust with small children? Military will always have the warbots (narrowly trustable) Most breeds of robotic systems will be generally trustable, all will be trustable for their missions, or we won’t build them using evolutionary processes. Boston Dynamics BigDog

13. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Humbot 1.0: The Sputnik (Robotic High Ground) of our Global Network Society? Sputnik (1957)Humbot 0.1 (2005)Humbot 1.0 (2030) U.S.-Surpassing Space/Defense Tech U.S. Soldier-Enhancing Security/Warfighting Tech Global Soldier-Surpassing Security/Policing Tech Q: Will a U.S.-led consortium supply the world with Humbot 1.0? Or will a Chinese, Japanese, or Korean-led consortium beat us to it? This is an important strategic uncertainty at present. The choice is ours.

14. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025 DateAvg. Query Platform 1998 1.3 wordsAltavista 2005 2.6 wordsGoogle 2012 5.2 wordsGoogleHelp 2019 10.4 wordsGoogleBrain Average spoken human-to-human query length is 11 words. Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well. Smart, J (2003) The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.

15. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age A Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology: A time when computers “speak our language.” A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”

16. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Wearable Web: 24/7 Augmented Reality Wearcam.org’s first-gen ‘sousveillance’ cams (2001) ‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006) ‘Carpal PC’ concept (Metaverse Roadmap 2006) Flip Ultra (2007, $130) Top-selling camcorder. Necklace phone (Nokia 2004) iPhone (Apple 2007)

17. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2020? Ananova, 2002 “Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality. Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps only 1/3) of info in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal.

18. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Conversational interfaces lead to personality models. In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long-term futures have been proposed. “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI) Personality Capture: A Long-Term Development of Intelligence Amplification

19. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death. We wouldn’t have it any other way.

20. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Valuecosm 2040: Our Plural-Positive Political Future Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s - Recording and Publishing DT Preferences - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media

21. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Advent of the CyberTwin, Circa 2020: Biggest Single Change We May See In our Lifetimes Consider the implications for: Subculture Diversity and Representation Global Comm and Collab (no lang barrier) Digital Divide (disappears) Accountablity of Powerful Actors Data Security and Privacy Crime and Fraud Public Relations Manipulation Reputation Systems and Transparency Socio-Economic-Political Democracy Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?) Personal Empowerment (20% of us?) Addiction/Dependency (80% of us?)

22. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Leader’s Challenge: Guiding Us to “Plural Positive” Futures Pluralistic versus Plutocratic Positive-Sum versus Zero-Sum Differentiated versus Homogeneous “Both/And” versus “Either/Or” Futures Social-Tech AND Individual advance (Top-Down, Devo)(Bottom-Up, Evo) Calculator Prolif. ANDMath Skills Automation Incr. ANDWork/Prod. Skills Metaverse Adv. ANDStudy/Reading Skills Automated Cars ANDDriving Skills Digital Twins ANDSelf-Empowerment Security ANDFreedom (to & from)

23. Informational Physical Univ. Hypothesis Universe as an Informational, Physical, and Computational System

24. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit IPU Hypothesis: Informational and Physical Structures/Processes make Universal Complexity C omputational (Adaptive) Psychology, Intelligence Organism I nformational Structure and Process P hysical Structure and Process Universal Complexity/Change seems to be: 1. Informational and Physical 2. Computational (A fusion of both structures/processes) 3. All three (IPC) when viewed from different perspectives. “Informational” / “Physical” duality, and its integration

25. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit IPU Hypothesis: Cartesian “Experiential” / “Material” Dualism, and Its Integration Experiential/ Conceptual Universe (informational ‘degrees of freedom’) (physical fundamentals and ‘constraints’) All material systems have material (embodied) and experiential (‘conceptual’) aspects. Whitehead’s Panexperientialism: Simpler material systems do not have cognition or mind, but they do have a simple nonmaterial nature to go with their simple ‘body’ (Alfred North Whitehead, 1925). Lovelock’s Gaia hypothesis: Earth is engaged in complex climatologic self-regulation, which ‘looks like’ primitive thinking/experiencing/modeling. The panexperientialist aspect of this, like mind in humans, will not be easily amenable to reductionist causal analysis. Mind/Body is an adapted form of intelligence, an integrated (Information/Physics) dualism. Material/ Physical Universe C omputation Mind/Body (In Complex Systems)

26. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit IPU Hypothesis: Kant’s “Practical / Principle” Dualism, and Its Integration Practical Non-Natural/Moral Empirical Results Messy, Contingent Variable, Indeterminate, Contextual Principle Natural/Amoral Theoretical Relations Clean, Invariant Stable, Determinate, Predictable (informational ‘degrees of freedom’) (physical fundamentals and ‘constraints’) Epistemic Dualism: Kant sees two fundamental types of ‘intelligibility’ being engaged in by humans (and by Whitehead’s extension, all other complex systems), the practical and the principle-based forms of understanding. Our 95/5 Rule (to be discussed): From our perspective, ~95% of change looks like practice. Only ~5% looks like principle C omputation Mind/Body (In Complex Systems)

27. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit IPU Hypothesis: Wheeler’s “Bit” / “It” Duality, and Its Integration Informational / “Bit” Observer/Creator (Unique Relational) Yes/No Q.M., Symmetry Breaking Variable, Indeterm., Contextual Physical / “It” Observed/Constrained (Persistent Relational) G.R., Conserved Symmetry Stable, Determinate, Predictable Universal Complexity/Change is: 1. Informational and Physical (QM/GR, Contextual/Predictable) 2. Computational (A fusion of both structures/processes) 3. All three (IPC) when viewed from different perspectives. Physical nature is deterministic, but Informational nature, which must be based on contextual observation, is both inaccurate and partly indeterminate/creative. C omputation Mind/Body (In Complex Systems)

28. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit IPU Hypothesis Summary: An Observation-Centric, Intelligence-Centric Perspective Informational Empirical Results Messy, Contingent Variable, Indeterminate, Contextual Physical Theoretical Relations Clean, Invariant Stable, Determinate, Predictable Informational-Physical processes create emerging mind and body, symmetry breaks, adaptation, embodied intelligence. At the quantum scale, collapse of an observed wave function moves electrons from possibility to actuality (“Bit” and “It”). This occurs via any ‘observer:’ physical, chemical, living, or technological. QM effects seem likely to be fully decoupled from macroscopic mind-body systems, but even so, we still see the observer creating informationally unique physical and mental constructs (gene and meme combinations) and the envir. selecting on those to create intelligence / adapted models of reality. GR also has this observer-observed duality, as one’s relative reference frame determines what one sees: different experiences for different observers. Mind/Body “Bit”/“It” Observer/Observed Intelligence Informational ObservablesPhysical Observables

29. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit “The Universals” in (Platonic) and Aristotelian Ethics: The Beautiful, the Good, the True (and the Real) Good “Ethos” (Authority) (Adaptation, Selection, Competition & Collaboration, Pattern-Rec, Analogy, Integration, Intelligence, Ethics, Philosophy) Beautiful “Pathos” (Feeling) (Creativity, Imagination, Intuition, Induction, Belief) True “Logos” (Logic/Words) (Discovery, Evidence, Reason, Deduction, Science) Development Werner Heisenberg, 1920s. * Elemental professions are the Artists, Politicians (‘Good’), & Scientists Howard Gardner, The Disciplined Mind, 1999 * Education should balance Aesthetics, Morality, and Truth-Seeking. Evolution The Ideal The Real (Sensed & Unsensed) The Ideal European Renaissance (1400’s-1600’s) and Enlightenment (1650-1800) applied rationality to truth, giving great science and technology advances but less so in aesthetics and morality, imbalancing the classical triad. We can restore the balance.

30. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit “The Universals” in Jacob Bronowski’s Worldview: Belief/Imagination, Philos./Practice/Values, Science/Proof Systems Philosophy (Adaptation, Selection, Competition & Collaboration, Pattern-Rec, Analogy, Integration, Ethics, Practical Knowl., Philosophy) Systems Belief (Creativity, Imagination, Intuition, Induction, Belief) Systems Science (Discovery, Evidence, Reason, Deduction, Science) Development Belief (what we imagine and accept without proof), Science (what we can prove today), and Philosophy, Practical Knowledge and Values (bridges from belief to proof), seem to be three fundamental modes of human inquiry. The last also seems a mix of the first two. A complete education should balance Creativity/Imagination, Philosophy/Practice/Values, and Skepticism/Proof-Seeking. Evolution

31. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit “The Universals” in Foresight Studies (Amara 1981): Possible, Preferable, and Probable Futures 1. Preferable Futures (“Planning”) (Consensus, Leadership, Policy, Planning, Roadmaps, Surveys) 3. Possible Futures (“Foresight”) (Horizon Scanning, Games, Scenarios, Visioning, Wildcards) 2. Probable Futures (“Forecasting”) (Actuarial Science, Delphi, Forecasting, Prediction Markets) Development Possible (what we imagine and believe may happen), Preferable (what we want to happen), and Probable (what we expect will happen, whether we want it or not) are basic foresight domains. Businesses address these #1 first, #2 sometimes, and #3 rarely. Evolution

32. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit “The Universals” in Daily Life: Creativity/Innovation, Work/Productivity, and Sustainability/Maintenance Work (Income Gen., Social Learning, Social Productivity, Exercise) Creativity (Innovation, Recreation, Art, Basic Research, Experiment) Sustainability (Maintenance, Conservation, Health, Ecosystem, Sleep, Limits) Development Creativity (novelty, recreation, innovation, experimentation), Work (what we do that is socially preferable/‘productive’), and Sustainability (the constraints we must operate within, whether we want to or not) are basic domains of daily life. Evolution PersonalOrganizational

33. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Socrates and Hegel’s ‘Dialectic Triad’ Is this All We Are Doing? Or Is There a Deeper Basis? Synthesis (Organism, ‘Becoming’) Thesis (e.g., Parts, ‘Nothingness’) Antithesis (e.g, Wholes, ‘Being’) Dialectics is a method of argument, the term dating to Socratic dialog in Ancient Greece, involving two parties or positions, and an attempt to synthesize at least some level of agreement or commonality. To Hegel (and to some degree Kant, Fichte, etc.), all material things and conceptual ideas have ‘internal contradictions’, which can often be expressed as two alternative analytical perspectives. These inner contradictions, working together and against each other, eventually move the thing/idea to a higher-level integration or unification. (1776) GWF Hegel 1770-1831 Socrates 469-399 BCE

34. Evolution and Development Two Fundamental Processes of Change

35. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Evolution: A Tentative Definition Evolutionary processes in biology, and perhaps also in physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are stochastic (random within constraints), creative, divergent (variation creating), contingent, nonlinear, and unpredictable. This intrinsic unpredictability may be our most useful quantitative definition and discriminator of evolutionary processes at all systems levels. Note: Evolution is NOT natural selection, in this definition. Its fundamental dynamic is change and variation (within constraints). It is a creativity generator, and thus a precursor to natural selection. Example: Genetic drift in neutral theory (Kimura 1983; Leigh 2007).

36. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evolution is Random, Chaotic, Contingent: Examples: Tree of Life, Vestigial Structures There’s no inherent directionality to evolutionary change, other than increased variety over time. On average, a species adapting to a niche may almost as easily become less complex as more complex (ex: remoras, blind cave fish). Vestigial structures abound: true human tails, supernumerary nipples, whale and dolphin atavistic legs, etc.

37. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Development: A (Tentative) Definition Developmental processes in biology, and we assume also in physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are directional, hierarchical, constraining, convergent, integrative, self-assembling/self-organizing, and statistically predictable if you have the right empirical or theoretical aids. This systemic predictability may be our most useful quantitative definition and discriminator of developmental processes at all systems levels. Development also has a cyclical hierarchy: birth, growth, maturation, reproduction, senescence, death (recycling). Note: Development is NOT natural selection, in this definition. It is convergent unifier, and thus a specialized outcome of natural selection. Examples: Differentiation, STEM compression, ergodicity, evolutionary homoplasy, modularity, hierarchy, self-similarity, scale invariance, self-org., stigmergy, niche construction, etc.

38. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Development is Statistically Deterministic, Self- Ordering, and “Robust” to Contingencies Just a few hundred developmental genes “ride herd” over massive molecular evolutionary chaos. Yet two genetic twins look, in many respects, identical. How is that? They’ve been tuned, cyclically, for a future-specific convergent emergent order, in a stable development niche. Origination of Organismal Form, Müller and Newman, 2003

39. Evo Devo Universe Hypothesis Universe as an Evolving and Developing System

40. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Devo Universe? – An Article We can begin to model our universe as an information processing, evolutionary and developmental system  as an evo compu devo universe (abbrev. evo devo universe hereafter). Our framework will try to reconcile the majority of unpredictable, evolutionary features of universal emergence with a subset of potentially statistically predictable and developmental universal trends, including: Acceleration in universal complexity (e.g. Aunger 2007), a pattern seen over the last half—but not the first half—of the universe’s history Increasing spatial and temporal locality of universal complexity development Hierarchies of increasingly matter and energy efficient and matter and energy dense ‘substrates’ (platforms) for adaptation and computation The apparent accelerating emergence, on Earth, of increasingly postbiological (technological) systems of physical transformation and computation. Smart, John M. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture. In: Cosmos and Culture, Steven J. Dick (ed.), NASA Press (est. 2009).

41. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Universe hypothesis Evo-devo biology seeks to resolve the differences between evolutionary and developmental processes spanning the scales of cells, organisms and ecologies (Carroll 2005, many others). Recalling Teilhard’s (1955) evocative phrase, ‘cosmic embryogenesis,’ if the Big Bang acts like a seed, and the expanding universe like an embryo, it must use both stochastic, contingent, and local/micro ‘variational’ processes—what we are calling evolution—in its elaboration of form and function, just as we see at the molecular scale in any embryo. Embryos also transition through a set of statistically predictable, convergent, and global/macro differentiation milestones, then reproduction, senescence, and the unavoidable termination of somatic (body) life—what we are calling development. If the evo devo analogy has homology, there must be unpredictable creativity and predictable developmental milestones, reproduction, and ending to our universe.

42. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org An EDU Analogy: Genetically Identical Twins and Parametrically Identical Universes In genetically identical twins, organogenesis, fingerprints, brain wiring, learned ideas, behaviors, many local, microscopic processes are unpredictably unique in each twin (Jain 2002). Yet many global, macroscopic processes are predictably the same. Would parametrically identical universes also be mostly and locally unique, yet with predictable global and macroscopic similarities? This is a question for future simulation science. The Hypothesis: (Predictable and conservative) development is always different from but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary processes. Both seem fundamental to universal complexity.

43. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Process: Cartoon Model I Assumption: A universe of computation (informationally complex patterns of physical STEM as adapted structure), with evolution and development as complementary modes of information processing in all complex adaptive systems, including the universe as a system.

44. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org “Experimentation” Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search Strange Attractors Radiation Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’ New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’ “Convergent Unification” Main Actor: Environment Life Cycle, STEM Compression, Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, ‘Evolutionary’ Convergence, Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy, Self-Organization (Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors Hierarchy “Natural Selection” Main Actor: Organism Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety Mixed Attractors Adaptation Compu (EvoDevo) (Intersection) Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Process: Cartoon Model II

45. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Universal Evolution and Development: Bilateral Processes Key Conjectures Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty. Development causes cyclic predictability and stability. Evolution drives most unique local patterns. Development drives most predictable global patterns. Evolution is intelligence/adaptation accumulation. Development is intelligence/adaptation preservation. Life, Intelligence, and the Universe must use both evo and devo processes to emerge and persist. Individually, each process has conflicting and contrasting aims (functions, purposes, telos). Together, they are complementary, and a complementary evo devo teleology must exist. The more consciously we are aware of this, the better we can understand, value, and work with both.

46. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Universal Evolution and Development: A Bilateral Bias? We are bilateral organisms, on a bilateral (two- poled, spinning) planet. We are biased to be bilateral forms in a 3D world, and we may also be biased to see the universe from a bilateral perspective. Or we may see bilaterality because the cosmos is driven by two fundamental groups of processes, each complementing the other. Organismic complexity emerges from two basic processes: evolution and development. The Evo Devo Universe hypothesis proposes these two processes are also basic to the emergence of universal complexity.

47. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Biological Complexity Can Be Analyzed From Three Fundamental Perspectives Adaptation (Organism) Evolution, Reductionism Development, Wholism Mature evo-devo theory will need to explain: 1. evolutionary experiment/creativity/divergence, 2. developmental constraint/conservatism/convergence, and 3. accelerating organismic adaptation/plasticity/intelligence

48. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Theory of Facilitated Variation: “How Development Facilitates Evolution” Complexity (Adaptation) Organism Deconstrained Gene Recomb & Expression ‘Exploratory’ Processes Unconserved, Unpredictable Constrained Gene Recomb & Expression ‘Core’ Processes Conserved, Predictable An evo-devo theory which seeks to explain how phenotypic complexity arises from a very limited number of genes and variation mechanisms, by dividing variation into two fundamental types: 1. Deconstrained Exploratory (i.e., ‘Evolutionary’) processes, primarily affecting the regulation of Core processes. 2. Constrained Core (i.e., ‘Developmental’) processes Gerhart J, Kirschner M. 2007. "The theory of facilitated variation". PNAS USA. 104(S1):8582–9.The theory of facilitated variation Core processes are robust to many exploratory alterations of phenotype Exploratory processes create many phenotypes from very limited set of genes

49. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo Devo in Creation and Control: The ‘95/5%’ Rule of Thumb The vast majority (we may roughly propose 95%) of the information and computation to describe and model both creation of a new CAS or hierarchy or control in a mature CAS or hierarchy involves bottom-up, local, evolutionary processes. A minor yet critical contribution (again, let us roughly propose 5%) comes from top-down, systemic, developmental processes. Ex: No of genes used (and highly conserved) in developmental toolkit in any species (eg., Dictyostelium, 2-3%), vs. the much larger number of ‘evolutionary’ genes that are more frequently modified and affect phenotype variation, not development. The 95/5% Rule may explain why discovery of universal development been difficult not in physics and chemistry (where we have made great strides, e.g., mechanics, relativity, particle physics) but in biology, society, and technology. In these latter substrates, which are not yet ergodic, the time scale of the (‘5%’) nonrandom developmental signal is much longer than the (‘95%’) near-random evolutionary signal.

50. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Universal Evolution and Universal Development: Four Centuries of Selective Scientific Advancement Adaptation (Organism) Evolution, Reductionism Development, Wholism Post-Enlightenment science has made great strides uncovering mechanisms of biological and to some extent social macroevolution (contingent variation and selection). But universal macroevolution (including quantum selectionism) remains speculative at present. With Universal, biological, and social macrodevelopment (convergent variation and selection, progress, acceleration), by contrast, only universal development (mechanics, thermodynamics, relativity, high energy physics) has really advanced. Bio and social development remain hard to understand scientifically. (1759)(1864) (1776) (1859) (1916) (1997) Univ. Evo Bio. Evo Social Evo Univ. Devo Bio. Devo Social Devo

51. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Universal Evolution and Development: Five Adaptive Hierarchical Substrates 1. AstroPhysics (Universe-as-CAS, constants and laws, space-time, energy-matter) 2. AstroChemistry (galaxies, stars, planets, molecules in inorganic and organic chemistry) 3. AstroBiology (cells, organisms, populations, species, ecologies) 4. AstroSociology (culture, human disciplines of economics, law, sci., engineering, etc.) 5. AstroTechnology (engines, cities, biology-inspired computing, postbiological ‘life’) Universal change to date has proceeded through an evolutionary developmental hierarchy of increasingly complex (more unique material relations), intelligent (higher-order information processing) and adaptive computational substrates. Five are proposed below. Astrotechnology, the italicized substrate, is not yet autonomous. The underlined systems within these substrates are not known to be replicative, unless our universe replicates in the multiverse.

52. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Devo Integration (‘Dialectic’): An Accelerating Arrow of Universal Complexity Evo Dynamic: Random Walks, Divergent Unique Creativity Devo Dynamic: ‘Inward Spiral’ of Increasingly Local Substrate Transitions Engine: Cosmic Expansion/Free Energy Flow Steering: Evo Devo Integration Info Theory/Physics: Informational Expansion/STEM Compression

53. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Selectionist Evo and Deterministic Devo Processes Are Found On All Scales, In the Universe and On Earth Selectionist Evo and Deterministic Devo Processes in the Universe: Evo: Spontaneous and contingent symmetry breaking (Yoichiro Nambu) Devo: Tuned initial conditions, laws, constants (anthropic princ./fine tuning) Quantum-relativistic spacetime emergence (Jan Ambjørn) Selectionist and statistical thermodynamics (Ping Ao) Classical from quantum physics (Quantum Darwinism, Wojciech Zurek)) Galactic and molecular cloud evolution/development (Leonard Searle) Stellar-elemental-planetary evolution/development (Donald Clayton) Universal replication (a bounded, finite system) (Lee Smolin) Evo and Devo Processes on Earth: Biogenesis/Chemical Evo Devo/Prokaryotes (D. Eric Smith) Eukaryotes (from Prokaryotic Diversity and Symbiosis) (Lynn Margulis) Multicellularity and Gene Regulation (John Gerhart, Mark Kirschner) Individuals (biological organisms) (Mary Jane West-Eberhard, Leo Buss) Organizations (Kevin Kelly, Robert Aunger) Societies (superorganisms) (Edmund O. Wilson, Robert Wright) Planets (Planetization, Pierre Teilhard, Howard Bloom, Greg Stock) Universe (as a bounded, finite system) (Lee Smolin, James Gardner, Me) While all of these (and other) systems are important to science, the last five underlined scales seem particularly useful perspectives for humanity.

54. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Examples: Experimentation + Selectionism + Unification ‘Quantum Darwinism’ in the transition from quantum to classical physics (Blume-Kohout and Zurek 2005) Stellar nucleosynthesis (Wallenberg) Biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006) Multicellularity (Newman and Bhat 2008) ‘Neural Darwinism’ in brain development (Edelman 1989) Cognitive selectionism (thinking) (Calvin 1985) Evolutionary psychology (Wright 1998) Cultural, ‘memetic’, and ‘technetic’ selection (Aunger, Blackmore) Evolutionary computation and artificial life (Koza) Cosmological natural selection (Smolin 1992)

55. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Marbles, Landscapes, and Channels (Evolution, Adaptive Systems, and Development) The marbles roll around on the landscape (system), each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (“attractors”) at the bottom of each basin. STEM compression is a key feature of the attractors.

56. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit ‘Search Basins’ and ‘Portal Pathways’: Developmental Portals (Bottlenecks) Must Exist Crutchfield, J.P. 2001. When Evolution is Revolution: Origins of Innovation. In: Crutchfield, J.P. and Schuster, P. (eds.), Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Interplay of Selection, Neutrality, Accident and Function. Are portals/bottlenecks leading to increasing complexity plentiful or rare? Are portals/bottlenecks sequence-dependent or randomly distributed? Are they divergent, convergent, or non-vergent (as depicted here)?

57. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Developmental Bottleneck – Carbon Chemistry Carbon is the only way forward to complex (living ) chemistry. Boron and Silicon no longer considered viable enough to form autocatalytic cycles. Note that four of six most common elements in life chemistry (CHNOPS), and both of the great oxidizers, oxygen, and sulfur, are formed in small, Population I stars like our Sun Genesis of Chemical Elements

58. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Developmental Bottleneck? Lipids and RNA Lipids and RNA may be the only way from organic chemistry to cells! RNA, lipids/cell membranes, and protein precursors (amino acids) all form spontaneously in Earth’s chemistry (and precursors on meteorites). Nucleobases (AGCT/U) form from cyanide, acetylene and water. Sugars form from alkali and formaldehyde Phosphates are released from schreibersite in meteorites (“solar system assist”), and (a little) from (modern) volcanic vents. Sutherland et. al., mixing sugar and nucleobase precursors and phosphate got 2-aminooxazole (partial sugar, partial nucleobase) Exposure to intense solar UV in shallow water (“solar system assist”) destroys the incorrect forms of nucleobases, leaving behind C and U. RNA is presently the only known molecule that can both reproduce itself and catalyze protein production (ribozymes) RNA later learned to store itself more permanently as DNA (RNA World Hypothesis), but DNA may not be the only more stable nucleic acid. Alonzo Ricardo and Jack Szostak. Life on Earth, Scientific American, Sept 2009. Matthew W. Powner, Beatrice Gerland & John D. Sutherland. Synthesis of activated pyrimidine ribonucleotides in prebiotically plausible conditions, Nature V. 460 May 13, 2009.

59. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Developmental Bottleneck? Oxygen/Nitrogen Atmosphere for Water Photosynthesis Only visible-infrared light gets through our atmosphere and the first few feet of our water with any efficiency. Water-based photosynthesis (blue-green algae, Photosystem I) had to evolve (develop) inside this narrow fitness region (bottleneck), and is likely chained to this bottleneck everywhere else as well.

60. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Bottleneck, Sun-Earth Coevolution, Or Other Expected Physics? Our Sun’s Spectral Output is Optimized for Visible-Infrared Our Sun puts out almost all its radiant energy in the spectral band absorbable by our atmosphere and water and useful to life, and virtually none in those regions harmful to life Is this some expected physical process like Weak Anthropic Principle (observer dependent sorting), Strong Anthropic Principle (Universal Developmental Process), Sun-Earth Coevolution, or? Also, what is the random probably of such a fortuitous Sun-Earth fit? Could solar wind sort atmospheric gases like this?

61. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo vs. Devo: Fanout, Adaptation, Bottleneck Understanding Variation, Selection, and Conservation If the tape of life were played twice on two Earth-like environments (astrobiology) or in two Universes with same init. conditions (evo devo U): 1. Devo bottlenecks (grey pinchers) would predictably be same/very similar. 2. Evo fanouts to generate selectable diversity, and most (95%?) selections/ adaptations on the way to devo bottlenecks would be unpredictably different. Information is ‘a difference that makes a difference’. Evolution generates/accumulates info (perhaps 95% of it) Development conserves/sustains info (perhaps 5% of it) EvoDevo selects, adapts info (turns info  knowledge, wisdom, etc.), sometimes punctuating/innovating, sometimes stabilizing/optimizing. Evo FanoutDevo Bottleneck EvoDevo Adaptation (Competition, Cooperation)

62. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Bottlenecks, Variation, and Adaptation in Biology: A Few Tentative Examples BottlenecksVariationAdaptation Carbon chemistry (for all viable life) Other organic molecular species (B, Si are false variation, not viable) Specific supramolecular structures of most cell components Replic. carbohydrates (RNA world) and fats (lipid membranes), then proteins (modern cells) Subtypes and specific structural and enzymatic uses, other organic polymers DNA (inert, replicating sugar phosphate) as stable info carrier Energetics: H2S chemo-synthesis (1 st life) later, visible light (photosynth and vision) Various visible light frequencies (other freq’s are false variation) Blue-Grn photosystms, tri- and quad-chromatic vision Nucleated cells (for complex life) Location & number of nucleations Mito + Nuclear DNA Bilateral symmetry, two eyes, hands, etc. (for tool manipulation) L vs. R asymmetries (other symm. choices are false variation) Left-sided heart, right- sided liver in humans

63. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Bottlenecks, Variation, and Adaptation in Technology: A Few Tentative Examples BottlenecksVariationAdaptation Round and flaked rocks for group rock-throwing Variations in size, shape, composition Particular Acheulean tool kits (1.7m-200Kya) The wheel: 1-wheeled barrows, 2-wheel bikes, 4-wheeled carts & cars One to multi-wheeled vehicles, active and passive balancing. Each culture’s mix of one, two, three, four, and more wheeled vehicles Bilateral road traffic symmetry L vs. R asymmetriesL-sided in one country, right-sided in another Gunpowder, cannons, and guns Many types and combinations. Fireworks in China, no guns in Japan for 250 yrs Combustion engines (external and internal) Type of organic burned (wood, coal, oil, gas) Variety of usable engine designs, fuel mixes. ElectricityDC vs AC, voltage diffsCompeting standards, each locally useful Computers and human- surpassing robots Variety of engineering solutions & strategies Diff. blends of employment vs. automation.

64. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Bottlenecks, Variation, and Adaptation in Society: A Few Tentative Examples BottlenecksVariationAdaptation Agricultural-Domestic Society Variety of plants/farming animals/husbandry Feudal, Small Farm, Sharecropper, etc. Industrial SocietyVariety of machine designs, energy sources Manchester factories, Ford’s assembly line Regulated Capitalism with Property Rights Variety of private and collective property schemes ‘Freer-Market’, Regul., and Autocratic Capitalism Rep. Democracy, Soc. Justice, Entitlements Order of voting/rights/ entitlemnt acquisitions (child, women, slaves) Freer vs. Stricter Social Democracies, National Justice Codes Information-Automation Society Order and variety of automations, degree of job protection, IP protection, public benefits (education, etc.) Japanese automation & xenophobia, US free market, Scandinavian mixed economy, African leapfrogging

65. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit ‘Inevitables’ (Bottleneck Structures) Are Differentially Adapted (Diversely Regulated) But Remain Variable Only In the Short Run Example: Guns in Japan vs. Elsewhere The Japanese govt. was strong enough to ban guns for centuries. First guns (arquebus, right) came with Portuguese in 1543, used in many massed battles. By 1600 Japan had world's best guns, but they were increasingly regulated and finally banned by centralized samurai clan (Tokugawa clan) for 250 years. As inevitables, guns eventually had to reemerge. But they did so on Japanese terms. Japan retains a strong police force and collectivist society today. As of 2006 there are only 175K registered owners of 340K guns in Japan. In US: ~40 million gun owners, ~180 million guns. Japan has the lowest gun crime rate of any industrialized nation (93 gun deaths in 1998, vs 36,000 in US. Japan has 130M vs. US 300M citizens). All 175K gun owners were mass-checked after 2007 Sasebo shooting ‘rampage’ (2 deaths, 6 injuries). 90 were ‘declared unfit to own’ guns. 2008 laws prevent stalkers, spouse abusers, suicidal, and bankrupts from owning guns, including hunting guns, for an extended period of time. Fifteen year sentences for owning illegal guns, death penalty for org. crime murder by gun, police raids on suspected illegal gun owners, etc. Major observation: Every other industrialized nation (Australia, Europe, etc.) is trending strongly in this postmilitary, postviolent direction (Pinker, Myth of Violence). Just the outliers (US, Brazil, Mexico, Estonia, etc.) remain. Gun story foretells a Planetized level of social integration and immunity.

66. Evolutionary Convergence A Process of Universal Development

67. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? Evolution tried this experiment. Development calculated an operational optimum. Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.

68. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit How Many Wheels on an Automobile are Developmentally Optimal? Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.

69. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Development as Evolutionary Convergence (Homoplasy) - I Some homoplasies greatly advance individual and cultural information processing and adaptation in a broad range of environments, for the first species that acquire them. Simon Conway Morris (Life’s Solution, 2004): eyes, jointed limbs, body plans, emotions, imagination, language, opposable thumbs, tool use, etc. The streamlined shape of fish fins, first created as an evolutionary morphological experiment, must persist in the genes of all organisms seeking to move rapidly through water on all Earth- like planets, as a universal developmental constraint imposed by the physics of our universe. In an ICU universe, such advances are ‘evolutionary ratchets’ (function randomly acquired but statistically irreversible once acquired, in a broad range of environments), a type of developmental optima (for a given level of environmental complexity) in all universes of our type.

70. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Development as Evolutionary Convergence (Homoplasy) - II Many homoplasies look like developmental attractors in an adaptive informational computational universe: Organic (carbon) chem (vs. silicon, boron, etc.) Autocatalytic sets (Eigen, Varela, Kauffman) Protein, sugar, fat precursors (amino acids, purines and pyrimidines, pre-lipids) RNA as enzyme and code (Woese) Dynamical patterning modules (Newman & Bhat 2008) Eyes, body plans, limbs, joints, wings, etc. (Morris) Bilateral symmetry, binocular vision, tetrapod form Bipedalism, opposable thumbs, anthropoid form Gestural, oral, written mimicry (languages) Tool use (rock, spear, lever, rope, wheel, pulley) Internal combustion engine, telegraph, internet Math, science, democracy, computers, etc.

71. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evolutionary Convergence as a ‘Directional’ Signal (of Universal Development) The eye has arisen at least five diff. times, in lineages as diverse as snails and jellyfish. A highly convergent ‘Camera-eye’ emerged in both cephalopods (octopus) and vertebrates (whale). Intelligence (cognitive maps, memory, mind, self- awareness, emotion) all convergent. Cetacean, ape, and crow intelligence are all strikingly similar. Different molecular genetic pathways now known for some convergences (e.g., antifreeze in Northern vs. Southern hemisphere coldwater fish) Evolutionary convergence experiments now underway (Richard Lenski, e. coli, 40,000 generations, est. tens to hundreds of substitutions in parallel populations. Adaptive substitutions seen in the same few genes)

72. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit “Convergent Evolution” (Universal Development): Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis Dale Russell, 1982: Anthropoid forms as a standard attractor. A number of small dinosaurs (raptors and oviraptors) developed bipedalism, binocular vision, complex hands with opposable thumbs, and brain-to-body ratios equivalent to modern birds. They were intelligent pack-hunters of both large and small animals (including our mammalian precursors) both diurnally and nocturnally. They would likely have become the dominant planetary species due to their superior intelligence, hunting, and manipulation skills without the K-T event 65 million years ago.

73. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map: Do All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Evolutionary Paths? Examples: Secularism (human-derived values) Ecumenicalism (seeing wisdom in all faiths) Rationality (logic+empiricism) Self Expression Subjective Well Being Quality of Life Sustainability World Awareness Future Orientation Political Moderation Interpersonal Trust Casualness worldvaluessurvey.org It may be that everyone ends up like Sweden, more or less.

74. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evolutionary Convergence to the Superorganism? The stunningly niche-dominant social insects Why are only 2% of the 900,000 insect species social insects? Why does this 2% weigh more than all other insects combined (and a stunning 80% of animal biomass in the Amazon rainforest)? Escalation of power/mass/intelligence in competition (Evolution and Escalation, Vermeij) They use both social and individual levels of computation (Lucifer Principle, Bloom). Competitive exclusion once the social computation niche is occupied? Do social insects cause most insect extinctions (invasion theory) Are humans doing the same thing?

75. Evo Compu Devo Triad Universal Values for Complex Systems?

76. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org “Experimentation” Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search Strange Attractors Radiation Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’ New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’ “Convergent Unification” Main Actor: Environment Life Cycle, STEM Compression, Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, ‘Evolutionary’ Convergence, Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy, Self-Organization (Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors Hierarchy “Natural Selection” Main Actor: Organism Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety Mixed Attractors Adaptation Compu (EvoDevo) (Intersection) Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Process: Cartoon Model

77. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Three functional processes (telos) can be observed in:  Physical Systems  Chemical Systems  Biological Systems  Societal Systems  Technological Systems  Our Universe as a System Using the ECD model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as either: 1. Adaptive Systems (making their evo and devo processes implicit), 2. Evo Devo Systems (making their info processing implicit), or 3. Evo, Compu and Devo Systems (keeping all three perspectives explicit). Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: At Least Three Universal Telos (Values/Goals/Drives/Ethics) in Complex Systems

78. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The Serenity Prayer in an Evo Devo Universe: Negotiating Bottlenecks, Variation, and Adaptation “ Universe, grant me the serenity to accept and understand the framework of things I can ’ t change (devo bottlenecks, what the universe wants) the courage to create the things I want inside this framework (as evo/creation is as basic to the universe as devo/maintenance of the system/ constraint), and the wisdom to adapt well (gain plasticity and resiliency, thrive in both punctuation and equilibrium) in my (finite individual, indefinite collective) time. ”

79. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Triad: Three Common Mathematical Relationships in Complex Systems Bell curve Power law S curve

80. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Three Fundamental Modes of Selection Divergent Selection (Competitive) Self-Organizing Selection (Cooperative) Power law Bell curve Punctuating and Stabilizing Selection (Organism) Evo / “Natural Selection”Devo / “Self-Organization” S curve 1. Evo Selection (power law spreadouts, competition) 2. Devo Selection (log normal centricity, cooperation) 3. EvoDevo Selection (punctuated equilibrium, alternating punctuation and stabilization). Johnson, Norman. 2000. Importance of Diversity: Reconciling Natural Selection and Noncompetitive Processes, Ann NY Acad Sci 901:54-66.

81. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit S curves and B curves / Life cycle curves How complex systems (coll. & indiv.) perform over time ♦ Biology - how populations grow in finite niches or under competition ♦ Epidemiology - the spreading and saturation of epidemics, AIDS, etc. ♦ Psychology – cumulative learning/performance in a new domain ♦ Technology - how new technologies diffuse and substitute ♦ Energy - diffusion and substitution of primary energy sources ♦ Industry - learning/experience curves in production ♦ Market - new product share growth ♦ Security - crime rates in developing cities, planetary conflict rates ♦ Demographics - human population growth on a finite planet ♦ Transportation – performance and capacity of each platform Good Intro Text Nice Grad Text

82. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Saturation in Macroscale S Curves: a.k.a. Terminal Differentiation of the ‘Tree’ of Development Family Origination Rates On Earth Evolution and Escalation, Vermiej, 1987 Metazoan Cell Types (‘Tree’ of Embryonic Development) Genesis of Chemical Elements Note that four of six most common elements in life (and both of the great oxidizers, oxygen, and sulfur) are formed in small, Pop I stars like our Sun Saturation occurs in the development of complex adaptive systems at every level of universal hierarchy, from cosmic elements to cell types to family types.

83. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Metazoan Toolkit: Pre-Cambrian Accelerating Emergence of Conserved Phenotypic-Genetic Structure and Process Gerhart J, Kirschner M. 2007. "The theory of facilitated variation". PNAS USA. 104(S1):8582–9.The theory of facilitated variation

84. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Facilitated Variation Thesis: Terminal Differentiation in Metazoan Toolkit Since the Cambrian Almost all phenotypic innovation of the Cambrian Explosion and since has been in gene regulatory networks (regulation, phase three) since. “New regulation specifies new combinations, amounts, and functional states of those (core) components to act at particular times and places in the animal.” Gerhart J, Kirschner M. 2007. "The theory of facilitated variation". PNAS USA. 104(S1):8582–9.The theory of facilitated variation Functional innovation at the gene product level (protein and functional RNA evolution) has nearly stopped since the Cambrian (570 mya)!

85. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Ergodicity: Terminal Differentiation in a Mathematical Context Astronomical discoveries and discovery rate, projected to 2200 (Martin Harwit, Cosmic Discovery, 1981).

86. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Power law / Pareto / Long-tail curves How networks of evolutionary variety fill a niche Good Biz Text Great Pop Sci Text Scale Free Network Computing – Internet, World Wide Web (‘preferential attachment’) Biology – Metabolic, gene, and protein networks, allometric scaling Markets – Stock market crashes, equity networks (stock prices) Socioeconomics – Pareto’s law (income distribution, contacts, etc.), learning/experience curves (cost per cumulative units produced) Engineering – Constructal law (trees, rivers, lungs, circulation) Catastrophe – Size/frequency of earthquakes, fires, epidemics Physics – Phase transitions (heat capacity, correlation length), emergence of order in an expanding universe (Layzer, Chaisson), inverse square laws (gravitation, EM & acoustic intensity), black body radiation, snowflake growth… Complexity – SOC, self-similarity, fractals, and scaling laws

87. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Normal and Log-Normal / Gaussian / Bell curves How developmental processes produce future order Good IQ Text Great Article! Normal curve (special case): Biology – collective physiological variables (blood pressure, milk prod., etc.), heritable & learned capacities (intelligence/g, etc.) Engineering – deviations from target values Modeling – measurement error (variation) Log-normal curve (most common case): Biology – mature sizes (length, height, skin area, weight), organ sizes, gene expression rates, mRNA stability, species abund. Socioeconomics – exchange rates, price indexes, ‘rationalizing’ of global wealth (started with a power law), spoken sentence lengths Physics – resources in Earth’s crust, rainfall, air pollution, aerosol particle size, wireless comm. attenuation “Results from a large number of small effects that act additively (normal) or multiplicatively (log-normal curve) and independently.” Log-normal Distributions across the Sciences, Limpert etal., BioScience 51(5), 2001.

88. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Global income distribution is turning log-normal Global marginal income distribution is normalizing, as a developmental trend 1970: Isolated economies 2000: Connected, flattening

89. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Our Generation’s Theme First World Saturating Emerging Nations Gap-Closing

90. Developmental Singularity Hypothesis Successful Universal Intelligences Act as Universal Experiments and Replicators

91. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org The Developmental Spiral Homo Habilis Age2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age40,000 yrs Agricultural Age7,000 yrs Empires Age2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ≈ 2060

92. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Acceleration Studies: Something Curious Is Going On An unexplained physical phenomenon. (Don’t look for this in your current physics or information theory texts…) The Developmental Spiral

93. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years.

94. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit A U-Shaped Curve of Change: Inner Space to Outer Space Back to Inner Space Again Big Bang Singularity 100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap. 1B yrs: Protogalaxies8B yrs: Earth 400,000 yrs: Matter 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds Developmental Singularity?

95. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Why are Leading-Edge Developmental Niches Increasingly Local in Space and Time? Biogenesis required a cooling Earth-crust, and billennia. Multicellular organisms required a Cambrian Explosion, and millennia. Human culture required a Linguistic Explosion, and tens of thousands of years. Science and technology revolutions required a Social Enlightenment, a fraction of the preserved biomass of Earth’s extinct species, and hundreds of years. Intelligent computers will apparently be able to model the birth and death of the universe with the refuse thrown away annually by one American family. In tens of years?

96. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Space, Time, Energy, Matter  Info and Comp. Increasingly Understood  Poorly Known STEM Efficiency/Compression/Density is the ever decreasing STEM resources required for any standard physical process or computation. This seems to be the “engine” of accelerating change. “STEM Efficiency is Doing More, Better, with Less.” We Live in a STEM+IC Universe

97. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org STEM Compression: A Curious Process of Universal Development Our universe is apparently constructing special zones of local intelligence (complexity, modeling capacity, meaningful information) which are measurably and predictably more space, time, energy and matter dense, or STEM dense (meaning increasingly localized in space, accelerated in time, and dense in energy and matter flows), and STEM efficient (in space, time, energy, and matter resources used per standardized computation or physical transformation) (Smart 1999,2000,2002b). Space Compression (Increasing Locality of CAS Hierarchy) Time Compression (accelerating change, Cosmic Calendar) Energy Compression (free energy rate density) Matter Compression (learning curves, cities, high density comp.)

98. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Free Energy (Phi, Φ) of Dissipative Structures Traces out a Universal Hyperbolic Curve Free energy rate density values in hierarchically emergent CAS. Free Energy Rate Density (Φ) Substrate(ergs/sec/gm) Galaxies 0.5 Stars 2 Planets (Early) 75 Ecosystems 900 Animals (hum. body) 20,000 (10^4) Brains (human) 150,000 (10^5) Culture (human) 500,000 (10^5) Modern Engines10^5 to 10^8 Intel 8080 of the 1970's 10^10 Pentium II of the 1990's (10^11) Global AI of the 21st C 10^12+ Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001

99. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Energy Rate Density Flow Trends Depend on the Phase of the Life Cycle in Biological Development Note the energy flow trends in each phase of the life cycle (birth, growth, reproduction, senescence) of a developing organism. Only reproduction and birth phases are accelerative Stellar reproduction (via supernovas) has the same energetics phase profile. What else? Key Question: In an evo devo universe, does complexity accelerate because it is engaged in a process of universal reproduction?

100. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit World Economic Performance GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A.D. This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale. Note the “knee of the curve” occurs circa 1850, at the Industrial Revolution.

101. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit The J Curve First-Order Components are Growth-Limited Hierarchical Substrates (S and B Curves) Second-Order Hyperbolic Growth Emergence Singularities and a Limit Singularity Examples: Chaisson’s Phi Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar

102. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit STEM Compression Inner Space, Not Outer Space, may be our ‘Final Frontier’ Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998: Real structures in “outer space” (the physical world) are being modeled rapidly better and faster in inner, virtual space (the digital world). By comparison to inner space, outer space is: Computationally very simple and tractable (transparent) A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science Possibly a “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of emergence of universal intelligence versus Non-Autonomous ISSAutonomous Human Brain

103. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Fine-Tuning Problem (Philosophy, not yet Science) Is our universe “self-tuned” for life, complexity emergence? There are now twenty six or so ‘empirical’ parameters in the standard model of particle physics, and cosmology. More to come? Many basic physical features of our universe seem very finely and unreasonably “tuned” for the emergence of life and complexity in a universal environment, in the same way genes are “tuned” for the emergence of complex organism in a biological environment: Gravitational coupling constant Electromagnetic coupling constant Fine structure constant Strong nuclear force Weak nuclear force Proton/electron mass ratio Mass and energy of the universe Expansion rate of the universe Uniformity and entropy level of the universe Speed of light Nuclear energy levels of Be, C, and O. Another dozen or so “special” constants…

104. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit What are black holes?

105. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Lee Smolin’s Answer: Developmental Systems Engaged in ‘Cosmological Natural Selection’ At least 8 of the 20+ “standard model” universal parameters appear tuned for: – black hole production – multi-billion year old Universes (capable of creating Life) Lee Smolin, The Life of the Cosmos, 1996

106. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Cosmological Natural Selection (CNS) Perhaps the first viable astrophysical evo devo universe model to date. Quentin Smith (1990,2000) Lee Smolin (1992,1994,1997,2006). Seeks to explain the ‘fine tuning’ or ‘improbable universe’ problem (Leslie 1989, Rees 1999, Barrow 2002,2007). 19+15, or 20, or 6, or ?? fundamental parameters, an ‘economical but ungainly’ set, like developmental genes. We may eliminate some, yet add more as particle physics advances. In Smolin’s simulations (1992,1994,1997), eight of approximately twenty parameters appear fine tuned both for long-lived universes capable of generating complex life and for the production of hundreds of trillions of black holes (‘fecundity’ of production) CNS proposes the special values of our universal parameters are the result of an evolutionary selection process involving universe reproduction via black holes, (and thus universe adaptation in the multiverse).

107. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit CNS is Testable By Simulation Just as we see developmental (conserved, critical, internally selected) and evolutionary (varied, externally selected) genes in biological phenospace, we must find both developmental (fine tuned) and evolutionary (variable) fundamental parameters in our own universe’s particular set of initial conditions. Per Smolin (1996) and Vaas (1998) this prediction is already (and increasingly) testable by simulation. ‘Baby universes’ exploring universal phenospace on a phylogenetic tree, with a low branching rate and frequent terminal branching in this cartoon (Adapted from Linde 1994). Systematics diagram. Living organisms exploring a phylogenetic tree in evo-devo biology

108. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Is “Hyperspace” the Future of Universal Intelligence? Are Quantum Theory, String Theory, M-Theory, and Multiverse Theory consistent with a “Black Hole Analogous” Transcension / Developmental ‘Destiny’ for Intelligence? Do STEM compression, Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity lead us to Inner Space, Not Outer Space? If so, what’s on the other side of an Inner Space transition? Science has started to ask such questions, but we are still a long way from knowing the answers…

109. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit ‘Law’ of Locally Asymptotic Computation A complexity-centric representation of the universe. If Earth-type emergences provide a special universal reference frame, some cosmological models must be revised.

110. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Black Hole Strangeness Black hole time dilation. Clocks near a black hole appear to slow down to an external observer, and stop altogether at the event horizon. Inside a black hole, external clocks move arbitrarily fast. Black holes are the most efficient computational systems known (Lloyd 2000).

111. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Our Self-Fractionating Universe: A Passive Black Hole Merger Scenario 1. At the onset of acceleration, we see the largest number of galaxies we ever will. 2. The visible region grows, but the overall universe grows even faster, so we see a smaller fraction of what exists 3. Distant galaxies (not bound to us by gravity) move out of our range of view. Gravity pulls nearby galaxies together. About six billion yrs ago, our universe’s expansion rate began to accelerate. Our local universe is now self-fractionating into local ‘islands,’, and ours will include only the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies (Nagamine and Loeb 2003) Each of these ‘supergalaxies,’ may engage in evolutionarily unique mergers (natural selection) among all their developed intelligences. From the black hole intelligence’s time perspective, such mergers would occur virtually instantaneously, in no subjective time. This is because black holes, and only black holes, are a ‘one-way time travel device.’

112. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Active Black Hole Mergers: An Alternative Scenario If black hole mergers were desired to occur as soon as possible in ‘nonrelativistic time’, they might actively migrate to some central merger point. Might mature Developmental Singularities actively migrate from the GHZ to the galactic center? If so, signatures of their migration should be detectable by gravitational lensing and other techniques, with adequate instruments.

113. Applications A Few Implications of the ECD Framework

114. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Our Universe Appears to Have Both Evolutionary Possibility and Developmental Purpose The more we study the dual processes of Evo-Devo, the better we discover how a simple yet specially tuned background creates and self-organizes a complex foreground. Evolutionary variation is generally increasing and becomes more MEST efficient with time and substrate. Development (in special systems) is on an accelerating local trajectory to an intelligent destination. Humans are both evolutionary & developmental actors, creating and catalyzing a new substrate transition. We need both adequate evolutionary generativity, (emergent uniqueness) and adequate developmental sustainability (niche construction) in this extraordinary journey.

115. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!) Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).

116. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2009 Accelerating.org Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!) Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That would make each integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures. Republicans are Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues Democrats are Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues

117. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Competition and Collaboration Must Be Actively Balanced in Adaptive Cultures, Orgs, and Individuals Adaptation (Organism) Evolution, Competition Development, Collaboration Competition breeds both innovation and inequality, which democracy must “rationalize” (e.g., fair rich-poor divides). Both positive-sum games (science, capitalism, morality) and zero-sum games (most laws, taxes, budgets) are prevalent. Collaboration can create intelligence or mobs (balanced by rep. democracy) and groupthink (balanced by individual liberty). + –

118. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Michael Conrad’s Computational ‘Tradeoff Principle’ Adaptability vs. Programmability vs. Efficiency Generalized Computational Efficiency (Adaptation) Evolutionary Variation Capacity Developmental Programmability A computing system cannot have all of the following properties: 1. High evolutionary variation capacity (adaptability) (Evo) 2. High formal/structural programmability (Devo). 3. High computational efficiency (adaptation) (EvoDevo) The “DNA-Computer Disanalogy”: DNA is strong in 1, very weak in 2 (programmability) and 3 (efficiency). Digital computers are strong in 2, weak in 1 (variation capacity) and 3. Conrad M. 1988. The Price of Programmability. In: Herken, R. (Ed.), The Universal Turing Machine: A Half-Century Survey, Verlag, pp. 285-307.

119. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Devo Foresight: Implications of the Framework Our History, Present, and Future can be seen as: – Evolutionary choices (Evo, 95%?), Developmental forces (Devo, 5%?) and the Adaptation/Learning/Simulation increase (Compu, 100%) from their interaction Evo, Compu, and Devo Teleology. Innovation, adaptation, and sustainability goals, drives, and values constrain humans and our tech, and will constrain AIs to come. Sustainable Innovation. Devo and evo polarized countries, parties, and people exist. We need both. Seed, Org, Envir (SOE) Intelligence Partitioning. – Biological immortality is a major, mistaken fantasy – We need a new theory of identity/intelligence

120. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Evo Devo Foresight: Implications of the Framework - II Hierarchy and Acceleration. – We are in a purposeful, accelerative, emergent process. – Humans aren’t the end of the line. We will ‘pass the baton.’ STEM Compression will continue on Earth – Human cities will only get more STEM efficient/dense – STEM dense tech (nanotech) will continue to deliver unreasonable returns Inner Space increasingly encompasses Outer Space – Increasing importance of the human mind and heart (education, beliefs, philosophy) in culture, politics, economics – Increasing growth in the value and capacity of the virtual, increasing virtual-physical and human-machine interface – Importance of ‘gardening’ our technological extensions (they are the next inner space), and guiding their interaction with the current inner space (human consciousness).

121. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org Three Primary Foresight Skills Future Creation, Discovery, Mgmt Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s and a W”, or Possible, Probable, and Preferable futures, plus Wildcards (low-probability but high-impact events). In other words, futurists try to create, discover, and manage (“CDM”) the future. Creation (“Possible”) – personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation, exploratory research and development, creative thinking, social networking Discovery (“Probable” and “Wildcards”) – forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, risk analysis, marketing research Management (“Preferable”) – environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking, scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems, positive-sum outcomes

122. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Innovation, Adaptation and Sustainability: They Are Not Phases, But Lifestyles. Systemic Imbalances in Western Society We think Creativity is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. We emphasize it only in the first five years of life, and don’t try to develop it systematically during this phase or much after. Exceptions: Montessori, Waldorf. We think Adaptation/Learning is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. It starts in “school” and ends when we “graduate” or “fit in.” We get little training for innovation and sustainability behaviors to come. Exceptions: Continuing ed, personality assessments, lifelong learning communities, policies, metrics, and tests. We think Sustainability is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. It starts when we graduate and get a job. It also takes a very narrow view of the term (org., economic and status quo ‘sustainability’). It neglects, not only personal, national and global sustainability, but also innovation and learning behaviors during and after our careers. © 2009 Accelerating.org

123. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit Who Are You, In Relation to the Universe? An Evo Compu Devo Speculation A very complex and special piece of the universe, evolved and developed by the universe, here to create (evo), sustain (devo), and adapt to and understand (compu) it, from your own perspective, and to form unproven beliefs (evo), tentative philosophy/codes (compu) and proven science (devo) about those things you don’t understand.

124. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501 (c)(3) Nonprofit © 2007 Accelerating.org A Closing Visual: Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.

125. Discussion What Do You Think?