1. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Bonnie Lawlor ICSTI January 15, 2004

2. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure The Information Environment The Information Environment Where we are now Where we are now How we got here How we got here Challenges/Opportunities for the Future Challenges/Opportunities for the Future

3. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure

4. Google Statistics: Index 3.3 billion Web pages 10,000 computers 10,000 computers 200 million searches daily (75% of web searches) 200 million searches daily (75% of web searches) 88 languages, 6 years old 88 languages, 6 years old 1 billion estimated revenues in 2003* 4 billion dollars to be raised via IPO in 2004* Objective: Organize the World’s Information U.S.A Today, August 26, 2003, page 1D *Bloomberg.com, January 5, 2004.

5. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure “ For the Next Generation of online users, established firms may have lost mindshare”… “ For the Next Generation of online users, established firms may have lost mindshare”… Stephen Arnold, President, Arnold Information Technology (12/2000) “The enemy is Google, the lazy student and time the constrained worker”…. “The enemy is Google, the lazy student and time the constrained worker”…. Derk Haank, CEO Elsevier (2/2003) Derk Haank, CEO Elsevier (2/2003)

6. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure

8. TECHNOLOGY: Online: <1M searches ~60M 19721992 PC’s:2.1Munits589M 19812001 Web:130 hosts171.6M 19932003

9. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Societal Acceptance of Information Technology: U.S Households8 - 10%70% With PC’s 19842003 Today:22% have more than 1 PC 7-10% are networked >50% have Internet Access 68% children use it for school 64% adults use it for Information 32% children (6-8yrs) have or plan to build a personal web site

10. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Economic Factors : Increase in Journal Prices Increase in Journal Prices 11.3% annually 1963 – 1990; 9% currently 11.3% annually 1963 – 1990; 9% currently Increase in Number of Journals 140% increase since 1972 140% increase since 1972 Decline in Library Purchasing Power 40% of ARL libraries will cancel “Big Deal” Contracts in 03/04 UK investigating price/accessibility of scientific journals

11. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Political/Policy Issues: Public Awareness/Acceptance of Copyright Public Awareness/Acceptance of Copyright Lack of Global Information Policies Lack of Global Information Policies

12. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Convergence of Factors: Technology Society Economics Policy 2003

13. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure U. S. Student Behavior (2002): 79%:Use the web for all/most assignments 50%:Use the library portal 66%: Believe they are best able to judge the quality of web information 4%: Believe the quality of web information is poor 88%: Believe that they will not use a fee- based web service

14. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure U.K. Student Behavior (2001): 72%: Web is the information source of first choice 45%: Google is the search engine of choice

15. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Medical Student Behavior (2000): 6%: Never used Medline 29%: Never used MD Consult 73%: Never used CINAHL or Current Contents 74%: Never used PsycInfo

16. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Web Information vs. Traditional Sources:. Discipline Dependent MEDLINE vs. Inspec Value determined by the User, not the Information Provider Value determined by the User, not the Information Provider

17. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Open Access Publishing: BioMed Central BioMed Central PubMed Central PubMed Central Public Library of Science Public Library of Science arXive.org e-Print Archive arXive.org e-Print Archive Institutional, Discipline-specific & Individual Repositories Institutional, Discipline-specific & Individual Repositories

18. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Electronic Journals 1991: 7 peer-reviewed journals 2003:5,000 electronic journals with no print counterpart 34,27 journals in print & electronic form (44% are “scholarly”) Ulrich’s, Private Communication, May 2003

19. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Market Perspective: Decline in use of Library and Traditional A&I services Decline in use of Library and Traditional A&I services Demand for more content – not more technology Demand for more content – not more technology Request more collaboration among information providers Request more collaboration among information providers Information Linking – media independent Information Linking – media independent New business models based upon user needs New business models based upon user needs

20. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Ideal Information System Easy to Access and Use Easy to Access and Use Available 24 Hours Available 24 Hours Offer Broad Spectrum of Resources Offer Broad Spectrum of Resources Reliable Reliable Pleasurable Pleasurable Reasonably Priced Reasonably Priced User Perception: The web fulfills the above criteria; A&I services do not User Perception: The web fulfills the above criteria; A&I services do not

21. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Challenges: Visibility Visibility Content Content Access & Retrieval Methods Access & Retrieval Methods Business Models Business Models

22. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Visibility: Collaboration with Librarians and Library web sites Collaboration with Librarians and Library web sites Emphasis on Services (free and fee- based) Emphasis on Services (free and fee- based) Presence on the Web Presence on the Web

23. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Content: Multimedia Multimedia Relevant Web-based information Relevant Web-based information Open Access Scholarly Journals Open Access Scholarly Journals Linking Linking Legacy data – new uses (micro-content/mining) Legacy data – new uses (micro-content/mining)

24. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Information Access & Delivery: Voice Recognition Voice Recognition Data Visualization Data Visualization Tools for Data Mining/Evaluation Tools for Data Mining/Evaluation Adaption to New Information “Appliances” Adaption to New Information “Appliances”

25. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure Business Models: iTunes iTunes British Library British Library Open Access Publishing Open Access Publishing ????? ?????

26. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure 2004 NFAIS Annual Conference The Battle for Mindshare: Information Access & Retrieval in the Year 2010 Date: February 22 – 24, 2004 Location: Ritz Carlton, Philadelphia Information:http://www.nfais.org

27. Shifting Power: A New Information Infrastructure New Publication The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan* 100 Interviews 29 countries Environmental issues Technology drivers http://www.oclc.org/membership/escan/default.ht m http://www.oclc.org/membership/escan/default.ht m