1. 1 City-region Stockholm as Knowledge region 2015 Arne Eriksson Mobile 0708872264 email arne@aek.nu © Arne Eriksson

2. 2 Recent studies 2005-2006 OECD says the region is weak on strategy and governance in a study commisioned by the region The Dahmén Institute recommends a regional foresight as a nonthreatening approach to get a process going in a study presented in April 2006 The Dahmén Institute commissioned to design and implement a preforesight

3. 3 Stakeholder Map STAKESTAKE High Low Influence Limited Great The usual suspects Potential participants Non relevant Potential leaders (collaborative leaders) Source: Adapted from Chrislip D.D Collaborative Leadership: The Fieldbook City-region: a new geography Extremely important to mobilise

4. 4 Strategies to cope with complexity Level of conflict Low ProblemSolution LowHigh LowHigh Type 2 Type 3 Power Concentrated Dispersped Contested Authoritative Yes No Competitive Collaboration Type 1 Källa: N. Roberts, Coping with wicked problems in policy, egen bearbetning standard procedure negneg negotiate Foresight territory

5. 5 Foresight design Cluster Drivers Sustain able system design Financial services User-driven innovation Unbundling Value chains Orchestration systems- integration Telecom/ Mob. services multimedia Bio/Life/ Health/ Welleing StSt CAPABILITIESCAPABILITIES S T R U K T U R E R, R E S U R S E R Long tail © Arne Eriksson KIBS seen more as a set of capabilities than as a cluster

6. 6 Strategy fundamentals Internal world External world Comprehensible Controllable Unpredictable Complex Transactional Rational Relational Cultural What How Probable/ Analytic Plausible/ Syntetic Foresight knowledge © Arne Eriksson 2006.Adapted from S. Flinn What is strategy Collective sensemaking Investing in capabilities: why, which, by whom, when Branding Present strategies Projects

7. 7 A regional innovation system with clusters reflecting regional specialisation Interface for renewal Capabilities rather than products and services © Arne Eriksson

8. 8 KIBS contributes in many ways Renewal RoutineNetwork Compliance of rules Innovation and exploration Transactional efficiency Customer managed relations and integration

9. 9 Value innovation (Blue Ocean Strategy) Global process networks Orchestration and Network mgmt Which capabilities will be requried to be successful ? © Arne Eriksson Value innovation Value for customer Cost

10. 10 Dynamic regional capabilities innovation capability collective learning networking leadership and governance foresightedness Källa: Harmaakorpi

11. 11 Plan and reality The plan 1.Use systemic methods 2.Stakeholder analysis - identify leaders and host organizations in the region 3.Identify critical issues through interviews and analysis 4.Prepare issues papers for panels 5. Foresight as a strategic mgmt activity 6.Run cluster based focusgroups/panels 7.Run a convent to reach synthesis and decisions The reality 1.Scanned SSM, SODA and others. Decided it would take to much effort to be professional in its application 2. Ongoing. Still some work to do to cover the whole region. Face some problems with mobilization 3. Done. The strategic decision that changed the process was to focus on KIBS as a key sector/set of capabilities 4. Under way. Some problems with the compressed time schedule 5. Using the strategy canvas from Blue Ocean Strategy for focus groups 6. Will be run in May 7. June 12-13

12. 12 Lessons and impressions so far Underestimated the financial resources needed to do a preforesight in really professional way ( 60 000) The need for a training program for decisions makers (from the public sector) to communicate the difference between a foresight process and standard procedure. (We had it in our plan but it became not more than a short seminar) We tend as usual to grossly underestimate the time required for collective social processes. My guess is that a foresight cycle probably should be designed to run over 3-4 years.