1. BANKING INTERMEDIATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY Joseph E. Stiglitz Bali, December 2004

2. OUTLINE  The importance of banks  The incentives for disintermediation  Consequences of disintermediation  Leveling the playing field

3. THE IMPORTANCE OF FINANCE  Finance—banks and capital markets are like the brain of the economy - They gather, process, and disseminate information - On the basis of which scarce capital is allocated  How well they perform their task has much to do with how well the economy performs overall

4. THE IMPORTANCE OF BANKS  Even in developed countries, most finance (other than self-finance) is in the form of debt - Explained by information asymmetries which limit the role of equity markets - Limitations even greater in developing countries  Banks are the major source of funding for investments in small and medium enterprises - Especially important in developing countries

5. SOURCE OF FUNDING Gross Capital Formation By Source in Select Countries (Average: 1991-2003) Clearly most of the capital formation is financed through retained earnings! Equity is relatively small in all countries except Thailand Only in Poland and Thailand is bond financing substantial Source: Compiled from WDI data

6. SOURCE OF FUNDING Change in Source of Funding in Select Countries (Un-weighted Average of 11 countries – Brazil, Chile, Czech Republic, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Poland and Thailand): Source: Compiled from WDI data

7. WHY BANKS?  Allocating resources—determining credit worthiness—is information intensive  Real market failures in information in securities markets - Problems of appropriability In efficient markets, all information is efficiently transmitted through prices Grossman-Stiglitz showed that markets could not be fully efficient Confirmed by empirical evidence Still, there is important ‘free rider’ problem—others benefiting from investments in information Securities markets often ‘free ride’ off of banks - Bonds will only be issued if firm has good credit line

8.  Problems of conflict of interest Analysts paid by investment banks Who compete for business of issuers of securities So evident in U.S. during the roaring 90s Contributed to bubble: –Which resulted in massive misallocation of resources during boom –And massive wastage of resources in inevitable bust that followed »Estimated cumulative gap between actual and potential output 2001-2004 $1.7 trillion CONFLICT OF INTEREST

9. FURTHER ADVANTAGES OF BANKS  Greater information allows better adjustment to cyclical conditions - Distinguishing between firms that are temporarily in trouble and those that have more long run problem -More counter-cyclical lending than provided by capital markets -Equity dependent firms may be more sensitive to equity prices, which are highly volatile

10.  Monitoring –Key to ensuring economic efficiency –Banks are central part of corporate governance Check on management More effective than shareholders when shares are widely dispersed (free rider problem—all shareholders benefit when company is well managed) –But can be undermined when there are too close links between corporations and banks or between commercial and investment banks (one of justifications of Glass-Steagall Act in U.S.) Again, problems manifested in U.S. during roaring 90s FURTHER ADVANTAGES OF BANKS

11.  Countries with good banking systems have had faster economic growth  Portugal and Ireland  But bad lending practices may hinder growth  Importance of local information –Reason for restrictions on national banks in U.S. –Criticism of financial market liberalization in developing countries International banks often less interested in lending to small and medium size firm –Regions in U.S. with weak banking system have not done as well as those with strong banking

12. FURTHER ADVANTAGES OF BANKS  Banks play central role in economic stabilization –Major channel of monetary policy is availability of credit to small and medium size enterprises –Probably much more important than effect of real interest rates –If banking base is narrow, then impact of monetary authorities is more narrow Monetary policy more distortionary Direct impact more concentrated

13. BUT LIMITS TO BANKING  Limited diversification/spreading of risks  Limited secondary market for bank loans - Related to information asymmetries  Information cost is high –Securities markets seem to avoid costs –But either information is poor quality With poorer resource allocations –Or information costs have to be borne somewhere in economic system –Securities markets may free ride off of banks –But then banks have to charge higher margins—just shifting of burden of information costs

14. SHARE OF BANKING HAS DECLINED IN MANY COUNTRIES  Partly due to real disadvantages of banks in risk  Partly due to false disadvantages arising from free rider problems  Partly due to implicit taxes imposed on banks  In some countries, increase in bank lending as percentage of GDP as a result of expansion into consumer sector  Will this undermine long term growth, as banks shift focus away from investment?  Bank Credit as % of GDP: 1997199819992000200120022003 Indonesia59.9%60.1%62.5%67.4%62.7%59.4%55.7% Philippines84.5%75.6%69.2%66.9%62.6%60.5%59.4% Malaysia168.7%167.2%156.7%148.2%155.5%154.2%152.9% Thailand162.7%164.1%143.9%121.2%111.3%116.0%112.8% SingaporeNA101.4%98.8%90.4%102.9%83.5%88.4% Korea73.8%84.0%88.3%93.0%96.7%101.9%105.6%

15. IMPLICIT TAXES Reserve requirements (when reserves do not pay market interest) Other requirements –In U.S. CRA requirements –Capital adequacy requirements Greater regulation –Because of concern about systemic consequences of bank failure –Especially when banks are too large to fail, and government bears the cost of bail-out Those that rely on bank lending most affected by use of monetary policy to control economy –May face greater volatility in credit availability

16. CONSEQUENCES OF DISINTERMEDIATION  Central bank still able to use monetary policy to control economy (especially to dampen inflationary pressures) –Small and medium size enterprises do not have alternative sources of finance –But there may have to be more ‘tightening’ to have desired effect Those who have direct access to capital markets shift borrowing, freeing up funds for those who do not have access  But monetary policy is more distortionary –Effects felt more narrowly –On those who have to rely on banking system for finance

17. CONSEQUENCES OF DISINTERMEDIATION  Quality of information in capital markets may deteriorate –Deterioration in quality of corporate governance –So resources will be less well allocated –And growth may be impaired –And there may be more pro-cyclical lending  Social objectives pursued by banks (community reinvestment requirements) not as effectively pursued in securities markets

18. LEVELING THE PLAYING FIELD  Some of disintermediation is a result of special burdens (implicit tax) imposed on banks  Banks do have some advantages in some countries—deposit insurance  But not large enough to offset disadvantages  Important to level the playing field

19. LEVELING THE PLAYING FIELD  Paying interest on reserves  Strengthening deposit insurance  Strengthening regulation on securities markets  Imposing transactions taxes in securities markets  Separating out policy lending from commercial banks  Helping banks restart with a ‘clean slate’

20. IMPORTANT LESSON  Old ‘wisdom’ that securities markets are better than banks because they allow better diversification of risk ignored the importance of information  But the collection, processing, and use of information is the central function of financial system  New view sees banking institutions as central to the success of any economy, but especially in developing economies - Even though there will inevitably be some disintermediation as economies grow and markets develop

21. CENTRAL BANKS  Have an important role not only in macro- economic management  But also in ensuring that the financial system overall is functioning well  Including providing credit to all segments of society –Especially to small and medium sized enterprises  This will require maintaining a vibrant banking system  Which will require sound regulation  But also a more level playing field