1. Airline Workshop Meeting April 4, 2005 Bill Murtagh NOAA SEC Space Weather and Aviation - A Review of the Issues -

2. Space Weather and Aviation - A Review of the Issues - Overview  The Polar Routes – Significant Growth  Communication Problems  Radiation Storms  Halloween Storms 2003 – What to do?  Other Issues

3. GROWTH ON POLAR ROUTES  The advent of new long range aircraft such as the A340-500/600, B777-300ER and B777-200LR  Cross-polar flights are expected to grow by 5 to 7 percent a year - Aviation International News  China’s aviation industry is developing at an explosive pace: On June 18, 2004, the US and China concluded a bilateral air services agreement, permitting a nearly 5 fold increase in weekly frequencies over the next 6 years.  Airlines operating China-US routes go from 4 to 9  Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249 over the next 6 years. The Transportation Dept estimates the economic impact of the agreement at $12 billion in additional revenues for US carriers over seven years.

4. GROWTH ON POLAR ROUTES  Mar 2005 – Nippon Cargo Airlines (NCA) plans to operate 3 new cargo freighters (B747-400F) on polar routes … ARINC  2004 – US Dept. of Transportation proposed to name Polar Air Cargo as a new entrant in the US- China market and to distribute a total of 39 new weekly all-cargo flights among Polar and the three US airlines--FedEx, Northwest Airlines and UPS--currently operating US-China all-cargo service.  Feb 2005 – Continental Airlines daily service from Newark to Beijing. American Airlines also commence operations of a new non-stop flight from Chicago to Shanghai.

5. …why the Polar Routes? Time savings in minutes and dollars per flight (2003) Atlanta - Seoul 124 minutes $44,000 Boston - Hong Kong 138 minutes $33,000 Los Angeles - Bangkok 142 minutes $33,000 New York - Singapore 209 minutes $44,000 Vancouver - Beijing 108 minutes $33,000 Vancouver - Hong Kong 125 minutes $33,000

6. Typical flight time from U.S. to Asia is ~15 hours. If the flight must divert, a stop-off is required resulting in additional cost of up to $100,000. THE POLAR ROUTES

7. POLAR ROUTES COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS Polar flights from North America or Asia initially use VHF (30- 300 MHz) or SATCOM. At higher latitudes, HF (3 – 30 MHz) becomes the primary method. Satellite communication (SATCOM) is available up to 82 degrees north, but HF is the only option inside the 82 degree circle.

8. Geomag Storms = degraded comm…sometimes! Ionospheric disturbances often occur whenever geomagnetic disturbances do, but not always. The relationship between the two is complex with no one- to-one relationship between a magnetic disturbance, and the level of ionospheric disturbance as measured by communications disruption. The reflection of VHF signals will occur on occasion during strong geomagnetic storms. CZEG EDMONTON CENTRE (ACC) A8577/03 - ROUTE AND LEVEL RESTRICTIONS DUE TO GEO-MAGNETIC STORM IMPACT ON COMM IN EDMONTON ACC ALL FLT TRANSITING CZEG FIR N OF 5700N AT FL290 OR ABOVE: 1. NORTHBOUND POLAR FLT PROCEEDING OVER DEVID, ORVIT… 6. OPR ARE ADVISED THAT VHF AND HF COMM RELAYED FROM THE TRANS SITE TO ATC VIA SATELLITE MAY FAIL DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT INTENSE MAGNETIC STORM. CZEG WILL UPDATE THESE MEASURES AS THE STORM IMPACTS BECOMES BETTER KNOWN. CZEG SHIFT MANAGER

9. Radiation Storms = degraded comm Radiation storms (proton events) can cause extended periods of HF blackout at higher latitudes. MacRelay reported over 100 hours of HF blackout in the Antarctic during the “Halloween Storms” of 2003. The onset of these storms is difficult to predict, but once they begin, forecasters can predict the duration with some accuracy.

10. D-region absorption following a large flare Communication problems due to solar activity are not confined to high latitudes. Solar Flare Induced Comm Problems Flare induced HF outages typically last from minutes to a few hours.

11. Radiation and the biological threat Two types – Solar Radiation storms and Cosmic Radiation Radiation storms can quickly follow the onset of a large solar flare. Highest energy protons (>100 MeV) travel fastest (up to a third the speed of light!). There were 85 >10 MeV radiation storms this cycle. Jan 2005: X7 flare began at 20/0636 UT and peaked at 20/0701 UT. The Intense >100 MeV radiation storm peaked at 20/0710 UT. This storm was short-lived, but did exceed the FAA Solar Radiation Alert at Flight Altitudes for about 1.5 hours.

12. ALERT: Solar Radiation Alert at Flight Altitudes Conditions Began: 2003 Oct 28 2113 UTC Comment: Satellite measurements indicate unusually high levels of ionizing radiation, coming from the sun. This may lead to excessive radiation doses to air travelers at Corrected Geomagnetic (CGM) Latitudes above 35 degrees north, or south. Avoiding excessive radiation exposure during pregnancy is particularly important. Reducing flight altitude may significantly reduce flight doses. Available data indicates that lowering flight altitude from 40,000 feet to 36,000 feet should result in about a 30 percent reduction in dose rate. A lowering of latitude may also reduce flight doses but the degree is uncertain. Any change in flight plan should be preceded by appropriate clearance. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Radiation Alert

13. Cosmic Radiation Cosmic radiation is a term typically used for high energy radiation which comes from the Sun (the solar component) and from the galaxies of the Universe (the galactic component). The cosmic radiation cycle peaks during solar minimum USA TODAY – 28 Mar 2005 Cancer fears limit Hong Kong air crews' New York trips HONG KONG (AFP) — Airline Cathay Pacific has limited air crews' flights on the non-stop Hong Kong-New York route after it was found the journey could increase the likelihood of cancer, a report said Sunday. Staff of the British-owned, Hong Kong-based airline say they have been limited to just two of the ultra long-haul flights per month since it was found the route exposed passengers and crew to high levels of cosmic radiation when they flew over the North Pole.

14. The WAAS system was seriously impacted during the Halloween Storms. For a 15-hour period on October 29 and an11-hour interval on October 30, the ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical error limit, as defined by the FAA’s Lateral Navigation Vertical Navigation (LNAV/VNAV) to be no more that 50 meters, was exceeded. That translated into commercial aircraft being unable to use the WAAS for precision approaches. FAA’s Wide-Area Augmentation Systems (WAAS)

15.  M ajor airlines rerouted several polar flights to non-polar routes requiring fuel stops in Japan or Anchorage.  Numerous other US flights rerouted or restricted. Confusion surfaced over how to react to the FAA Radiation Alert.  British controllers kept trans-Atlantic jets on more southerly routes than usual to avoid the communication problems.  British Airways pilots deviated from the airline's flight plans and flew at lower altitudes amid concerns over health risks to passengers and crew from radiation- Sunday Times, Nov2003  C-130 operations in Antarctica changed landing and take- off restrictions during the HF blackout periods. Halloween Storms 2003

16. Other Issues Other Issues … Cosmic radiation effects on avionics  Ionizing radiation can interact with electronics and cause a number of different effects, including:  Bit-flips  Destructive burn-out (burn-out in high-voltage electronics)  Gate rupture (burnout of a transistor gate insulator)  Dielectric failure  Single-event effects can now be seen at ground level because of the design of modern computer chips. The reduction in component size means larger upsets in the electronics. Courtesy of Clive Dyer, DERA Space Department, Cosmic Radiation and Aircrew Exposure: Implementation of European Requirements in Civil Aviation, Dublin, July 1998. These effects are currently being investigated by the FAA, Boeing, Rockwell-Collins, and others.

17. Other Issues Other Issues … Commercial Space Transportation No longer in the fringe bin!  Virgin Galactic plans to start Operating base tourism flights in 2008 (a 2-3 hour trip with up to 20 minutes in space and a maximum altitude of around 100 miles). SpaceShipOne  Dec 2004 – President signs “The Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004”  FAA is authorized to regulate the industry over the next eight years

18. Conclusion The aviation industry is undergoing many changes:  Growth in air passenger and cargo transportation  Planes flying higher  Planes flying longer  Rapid growth in polar route use  New technology - high-tech instrumentation  Sub-orbital commercial transportation  GPS dependant systems This expansion in service and reliance on new technology, while efficient and economically sound, has also resulted in an increased vulnerability to space weather storms.