1. Intersects of climate, land use, energy and water in the U.S. as addressed in the National Climate Assessment CLA’s: Kathy A. Hibbard and Tom Wilson LA’s: Kristen Averyt, Robert Harriss, Robin Newmark, Steven Rose, Elena Shevliakova and Vincent Tidwell 5 February, 2013 1

2. A Word (or two) on Carbon 1.Carbon is a currency for energy – from production (e.g., emissions) to consumption (e.g., buildings, land use) 1.Carbon and water are intimately linked 1.Understanding and quantifying carbon cycle dynamics and budgets is needed for appropriate analyses from driving forces to impacts, vulnerability and risk assessment. For interactions of biogeochemical cycles and climate from the NCA see chapter 15 at: http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/

3. Key Messages 1.Energy, land, and water systems interact in many ways. Climate change affects the individual sectors and their interactions; the combination of these factors affects climate vulnerability as well as adaptation and mitigation options for different regions of the country. 1.The dependence of energy systems on land availability and water supplies will influence their development and constrain some options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 1. Jointly considering risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities associated with energy, water, and land use is difficult, but can improve the analysis of options for reducing climate change impacts.

4. Energy, land, and water systems interact in many ways Water Quality Impacts Nutrient Loading Ponds Lakes Rivers Streams Fresh Brackish/ Saline New Water Desalination Snow Pack Ground Waters Surface Waters Land Forest & Grasslands Agriculture Cropland Pasture CAFO Urban, Commercial & Industrial Municipal Solid Waste Desert & Scrub Other Energy Power Grid Wind, Solar & Geothermal Power Gen HydroPower Generation Biofuels & BioPower Fossil & Nuclear Thermal Power Generation From Skaggs and Hibbard, 2012 Climate Variability And Change LAND FOR WATER ►Water-Capture & Watershed ►Ground Cover Vegetation ►Hydro-Geology ►Ecosystems LAND FOR ENERGY ►Infrastructure ▪dams/reservoirs ▪mines/wells ▪power plants ▪solar & wind farms ▪power lines ▪pipelines ▪railways ▪refineries ▪biomass feedstock & biofuels production ►CCS ►Energy Mineral Deposits WATER FOR LAND ►Forests & Ecosystems ►Crop & Animal Agriculture ►Mining/Energy Extraction ►Industrial, Municipal, Commercial & Residential WATER FOR ENERGY ►Extraction ►Cooling ►Processing ►Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) ENERGY FOR LAND ►Development ►Transportation ►Economic Productivity ►Resource Extraction & Conversion ENERGY FOR WATER ►Pumping ►Transport ►Treatment ►Conditioning

5. Climate, Drought and Energy: Impacts on Individual Sectors and Interactions In Texas, local gas shale production shut down in 2011 and crop failures continued through 2012

6. Water Use for Electricity Generation Macknick et al. 2010

7. Averyt et al. 2011 Water for Energy: Already Stressed?

8. Regional Characteristics: Drought, Heat, Energy and Land In the Northeast, thermo-electric power plants experienced de-ratings in summer of 2012 due to elevated water temperatures exceeding EPA regulations. Rising river temperatures and power plant de-ratings in 2012.

9. Regional Characteristics: Land, Energy and Water Competition between energy and food? Utility scale requirements for renewables? Food before fuel is a state issue USDA, BIOtechNOW (2012) Corn in Belleville, IL Bloomberg (2012) The climate wrench Renewables and land constraints SoCal connected (2012) Brightsource & desert tortoise

10. Regional Characteristics: The PNW - Land, Energy and Water

11. Climate Impacts: Northwest ▪ Reduced summer stream flows ▪ Reduced forest production ▪ Reduced Salmon production ▪ Coastal erosion Regional Characteristics: National View - Land, Energy and Water Climate Impacts: Northeast ▪ Inc. heat waves/reduced air quality ▪ Inc. variability in water resources ▪ Inc. growing season ▪ Inc. threat to native species Climate Impacts: Southwest ▪ Inc. flooding risk to infrastructure ▪ Inc. water stress ▪ Inc. vegetation change ▪ Reduced forming, tourism and urban growth Climate Impacts: Great Plains ▪ Rural to urban migration ▪ Reduced water resources ▪ Reduced farming and ranching Climate Impacts: Midwest ▪ Inc. heat waves/ reduced air quality ▪ Storm and sea level induced flooding ▪ Reduced agricultural prod. ▪ Reduced fisheries and tourism Climate Impacts: Southeast ▪ Strom/sea level damage of infrastructure ▪ Reduced water availability ▪ Ecosystem impacts ▪ Reduced quality of life Climate Impacts: Alaska ▪ Thawing permafrost damage oninfrastructure ▪ Decreased soil moisture ▪ Vegetation Change ► Inc. growing season Climate Impacts: Hawaii ▪ Strom/sea level damage of infrastructure ▪ Reduced freshwater availability ▪ Coastal and fisheries ecosystem damage

12. SUMMARY There are no silver bullets or simple answers The intersects of land, energy and water have unique regional characteristics: both with regard to constraints and endowments Informed decisions regarding tradeoffs and consequences for mitigation and adaption must include integrated frameworks and campaigns (e.g., NGEE, CARVE, ABOVE) that account for: Decision making criteria Physical, biological, social, economic and energy system processes New observations that account for human processes COMPROMISE DRAFT

13. THANK YOU! NCA chapters are available for public comment until April 12, 2013 from: http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/ 5 February, 2013 13