2. Metropolis Conference 2013 Framing and Reframing Irregular Migration and Human Smuggling Tampere, Finland Franck Düvell, Centre on Migration, Policy and Society, University of Oxford FRANCK.DUVELL@COMPAS.OX.AC.UK

3. 1 The social construction of irregular migration 2 Understanding irregular migration as social conflict 3 The quantitative dimension of irregular migration 4 The pathways into irregular migration 5 The root causes of human smuggling

4. 1 The social construction of irregular migration Irregular migration was fist noted in the mid 19 th century but only labeled illegal migration in the 1930s Constituencies, media, political parties and governments define who is tolerated, accepted or wanted and who is not. Irregular migration is a social, political and subsequently legal construct hence It can also be deconstructed again!

5. 2 Understanding irregular migration as social conflict States that set the conditions under which people are allowed to move BUT some individuals defy these conditions. Irregular migration is a conflict between societies that do not want (more) migration and individuals who insist that they must or want to migrate and a conflict over rights; some societies claim the right to restrict migration whilst some individuals believe it is their right to nevertheless migrate. Thus, we could apply sustainable conflict resolution techniques, i.e. reaching a consensus of all stakeholders on a round table.

6. 3 The quantitative dimension of irregular migration Globally, there are an estimated 40 million irregular immigrants, around a fifth of all international migrants but still only 0.5 percent of the global population. Stocks (estimates) Inflows (apprehensions) Estimates per countryPreviousMost recentTrend EU3,1 – 5,300,000 (EU 15) (2002)1,9 to 3,800,000 (EU 27) (2008)decreasing UK310-570,000 (2001)417-863,000 (2009) Italy541,000 (2005)651,000 (2008) France2-400,000 (2009) Germany1,000,000 (2003)1-400,000 (2010) Spain1,200,000 (2005)300-390,000 (2009) Greece230-330,000 (2004)350,000 (2011) USA9,000,000 (2000)11,500,000 (2012)increasing Russia8,000,000 (2006)4,000,000 (2012)decreasing South Africa2-5,000,000 (2011) Australia50,000 (2005)60,900 (2012)Increasing Table 1: EU, main receiving countries (Source: Clandestino project, irregular-migration.net) Table 2: Non-EU receiving countries EU151,000 (2008)73,000 (2012)Decreasing US556,000 (2009)stable Table 2: Non-EU receiving countries

7. Putting irregular migration into perspective EU IM population: 0.39-0.77 percent of the total population Inflow: (detected) irregular immigrants represent 0.021-0.031 percent of all international arrivals (700 million) US IM population: 3.6 percent of the total population Inflow: detected irregular immigrants represent 0.14 percent of all international arrivals. Graphic 1: Irregular immigrants in the EU and US, maximum estimates (2008) Graphic 2: Clandestine entrants compared to regular entrants in the EU and the US (2008)

8. Pathways into Irregularity in the EU 1)Legal entry and (visa) overstaying or legal entry and stay whilst working in breach of immigration regulations are the main paths into irregularity. 2)Refused asylum seekers who either (a) do not return, (b) are not removed and/or (c) are de facto non-removable. 3)Bureaucratic failure, like overly bureaucratic and therefore deterring residence and work permit applications, inefficient renewal and appeal procedures or withdrawal or loss of status for various reasons which result in irregular stay. 4)Clandestine entry – often of individuals who subsequently apply for asylum and thus regularise their status – is the least frequent path and rather the exception. In the EU (same in Australia), it is assumed that only 10 percent of all irregular migrants arrive clandestinely (different in US and SA) (Russia?).

9. Most effective measure to reduce stock of IM population (a) Preventing irregular migration from occurring, e.g. through legal migration channels and improved legal and administrative practices. (b) (Re-) Regularise those who fell into irregularity by accident or are otherwise deemed to deserve a status. (c) Law enforcement and border controls. BUT Avoid inactivity, de facto toleration and ideological battles.

10. Root causes of human smuggling EU: there is no stable mastermind-run smuggling organization but a polycentric and dynamic network of readily available smugglers. Repression of one networks is followed by the emergence of another in another region but does not seem to eradicate the phenomenon (Triandafyllidou and Maroukis 2012). Demand (from migrants) generates supply (by smugglers). Because interaction is not regulated by law crude customer-service provider relationships emerge. Two type of smugglers, genuine service providers and cheats. Specific constellation of demand - supply of banned services in an unregulated environment that drives up risks and prices. Solutions Address supply side (repression) Address demand side (legal migration channels including refugee resettlement)

11. Final note Irregular migration is less an issue of human smuggling and clandestine entry BUT More an issue of fraudulent visa applications and/or visa overstaying.

12. Centre on Migration, Policy and Society University of Oxford 58 Banbury Road Oxford OX2 6QS