1. Global forces shaping irregular migration flows and state responses: An Australian case study Governing Irregular Migration Conference Athens, 8–9 July 2015 Marie McAuliffe Sir Roland Wilson PhD scholar Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute

2. 2 Presentation outline Australian irregular migration context Analytical framework Operational and policy responses Conclusions

3. 3 Irregular Migration Research Programme Drivers & determinants of irregular maritime migration, especially migrant decision making AUD 6 mil over 3 years; 20 research projects involving 30 academic, private sector, policy think tank and NGO researchers International advisory groups Occasional paper series Article in Migration Policy Practice v5, n1

4. 4 Defining ‘irregular migration’ Source: Gordon et al. 2009 1 Migrants who have illegally/irregularly entered the country, including by physically evading formal immigration control or presenting false papers. 2 Migrants who legally entered the country for a fixed period which has expired; they did not renew their permission to stay and are therefore unlawful overstayers. 3 Migrants who are lawfully entitled to reside in the country, but are in breach of some visa condition, notably by working more than their immigration status permits. 4 Asylum seekers who legally entered the country to pursue a case for refugee status, but who remain despite a final decision refusing them a continuing right to remain. 5 Children born in the country to such ‘irregular migrants’, who also lack a right to remain although they are not themselves migrants.

5. 5 ‘Irregular migration’ in Australia Small ‘irregular’ or ‘unlawful’ migrant population Focus on external border - no restrictions on internal movement Air travel dominates Irregular maritime arrivals greater in number and proportion compared with irregular air arrivals –Differences in demographic characteristics & behaviour Definition limited to irregular migration flows rather than stocks

6. 6 Proportion of detected irregular arrivals by region and mode of travel (~2012) Source: McAuliffe & Mence (2014)

7. 7 Detected irregular arrivals to Australia Source: Derived from DIBP (2012)

8. 8 Source: UNODC

9. 9 Changing nature of irregular maritime flows to Australia Increase in volume Increase in diversity of origin Changes in demography – citizenship, unaccompanied minors & families Largely asylum seekers –Indonesian crew –Sri Lankan surge

10. 10 Irregular maritime flows to Australia: 1976 to 2014

11. 11 Changing nature of flows Transit migration through Thailand, Malaysia & Indonesia –Shift to direct movement by Sri Lankans alongside large increases in volume Almost all migrants are smuggled using agents, people smugglers and corrupt officials Smugglers need boats to be intercepted –Extremely remote & harsh northern coastline

12. 12 State responses to irregular migration - Analytical frameworks Hatton’s (2011) typology of three broad policy levers: ‘border control’, ‘refugee claims processing/acceptance’ and ‘treatment of asylum seekers’. Hatziprokopiou &Triandafyllidou (2013) distinguish between external and internal immigration policies, as well as between ‘fencing’ or ‘gate-keeping’ irregular migration control policies. McAuliffe & Mence (2014) geographic/spatial lines accounting for origin, transit, physical border and destination country responses.

13. 13 State responses to irregular migration in international and transnational settings State responses to irregular migration in international and transnational settings - Informed by empirical research into migrant decision making

14. 14 Australia’s evolving operational and policy response framework Increasing focus over time on ‘enabling’ factors Further restricting access to territory (destination & transit) –Visa-on-arrival policy changes in Indonesia & Malaysia –‘Turnbacks’ –Enhanced screening and deportations –Third country processing and resettlement –Undermining smuggling operations (e.g. information release) –Plus existing measures (e.g. immigration detention in Indonesia, capacity building, counter people smuggling operations, etc)

15. 15 Continued focus on destination country factors & deterrence –Temporary protection –Tightening review processes –Differential treatment by arrival status (e.g. detention, RSD processes) Migrants continue to view Australia as a destination of choice Reduced emphasis on origin country factors Australian responses have relied on geography, bilateral relationships, understanding of smuggling operations/marketing, testing relationships & obligations. –‘flows within flows’ Financial & other costs

16. 16 Conclusions Extraordinary responses becoming ordinary? Further significant efforts to restrict access to territory Sustainability? –Global transformational forces –Human displacement, relative deprivation, demographic change –Potential migrants’ views of Australia as a destination of choice Replicability? –High cost –Reliance on geography, bilateral relationships, understanding of smuggling operations, readiness to challenge norms

17. 17 Thank you Questions?