1. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE & LOW CARBON GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES IN TANZANIA Paper prepared for Learning Event on Comprehensive Climate Change Planning Global Best Practices Namibia, 10 th October, 2011 By: Eng. Ngosi C.X. Mwihava Deputy Permanent Secretary, Vice President’s Office United Republic of Tanzania

2. Outline Introduction Overview of climate change impacts in Tanzania Potential for low carbon growth in Tanzania Initiatives to address climate change in Tanzania Opportunities for low carbon growth in Tanzania Conclusion and recommendations

3. Introduction FACTS Climate change is the most serious global threat to sustainable development that needs global efforts Tanzania’s economy is very dependent on the climate, because a large proportion of GDP is associated with climate sensitive economic activities, e.g. Agriculture, livestock, fishing, energy, etc. Climate variability, i.e. extreme weather events such as droughts and floods lead to major economic costs in the country (e.g power rationing, crop failure & declining yields). Some studies (DFID – SEI,GCAP & DewPoint), reveal that individual annual events have economic costs in excess of 1% of GDP, and occur regularly, reducing long- term growth and affecting millions of people and livelihoods.

4. Introduction (2) Future CC could lead to huge economic costs which could be equivalent to a further 1 to 2 % of GDP/year by 2030 (DFID 2010). There are potential threats from climate change to: coastal zones (sea-level rise), health, energy supply and demand, infrastructure, water resources, agriculture and ecosystem services, with potentially high impacts and economic costs across these sectors (URT, 2010, DFID 2010). The combined effects of current climate vulnerability and future CC are more likely to constrain Tanzania from achieving key economic growth, development and poverty reduction targets, including the planned timetable for achieving middle income status. Tanzania contributes least to the global GHG emissions, but associated impacts of CC are significantly affecting all sectors of the economy.

5. Introduction (3) Thus, significant funding is required to address the existing adaptation deficit, as well to prepare for future climate change. An initial estimate of immediate URT’s needs for building adaptive capacity and enhancing resilience against future CC is US$100 – 150 million per year (DFID 2010). However, conservatively, additional funding of more than US$500 million per year is needed to address current climate risks. Addressing CC current risks and adaptation deficit; is essential in reducing future impacts and building resilience to future climate change. The cost of adaptation is expected to increases rapidly in future years. By 2030, financing needs of up to US$1 billion per year are estimated, and the figure could be higher for accelerated development.

6. Overview of climate change impacts – Tanzania As described in the Emissions Gap report, 2010 of UNEP regarding trend in global GHGs emissions, CC impacts will continue to affect global and local economic growth –Tanzania included

7. Overview of impacts of climate change in Tanzania….Droughts

8. CC impacts (2) Death of animals due to droughts

9. CC impacts. (3) Water shortage – Women walking long distances in search for water

10. CC impacts (4)) Floods (i.e. 2006 in Singida)

11. CC Impacts (5) The intrusion of sea water into fresh water wells along the coasts of Bagamoyo, Muheza, Zanzibar. Sea level rise-The inundation of Maziwe Island in Pangani. Malaria is evident in areas where it was not commonly found in previous decades such as some parts of Arusha, Mbeya Kagera, Iringa and Kilimanjaro regions and Lushoto and Amani in Tanga region. Mpezi Bagamoyo F/water well

12. Opportunities for low carbon growth in Tanzania : Minimize Sources and increase sinks of Ghg Achieving low carbon development will depend on opportunities from the international community in terms of finance, technology and capacity building to use alternative, affordable, reliable and sustainable sources of energy to power economic development in all sectors. The global measure of development is energy use per capita. Developed countries have higher per capita energy use, and hence higher development levels but also higher greenhouse gases emissions which is positively correlated to higher energy use.

13. Opportunities (2) Therefore, for sustained development to take place in Tanzania, increased clean, efficient & cost effective energy use is inevitable. Without support ; temptation to develop using the dirty path. Today, because of the poverty levels, Tanzania’s per capita GHG emissions is only 0.1tCO 2 e/capita/year compared to many countries as shown in the next table.

14. A comparative chart of Carbon dioxide emissions amongst some countries and their levels of development between 1990 and 2004 CountryTotal emissions 1990 (MtCO2) Total emissions 2004 (MtCO2) Per capita emission 1990 (tCO2) Per capita emission 2004 (tCO2) USA 4,818.36,045.819.320.6 China 2,398.95,007.12.13.8 South Africa 331.8436.89.19.8 Nigeria 45.3114.00.50.9 Tanzania 2.34.30.1 Mali 0.40.60.0 Burundi 0.2 0.0 OECD 10,055.412,137.512.013.2 LDCs 74.1146.30.2 Global average 22,702.528,982.74.34.5 Friday, September 11, 2015

15. Opportunities for low carbon growth in TZ (3) From the table it is clear that Tanzania can only develop by allowing higher level of emissions. Unless there is massive support to renewable energy exploitation and clean energy use; for survival reasons Tanzania may be forces to go the high carbon growth path. Based on inventory accounting, emissions from the energy system are low mainly due to the very high prevalence of biomass, accounting for up ~90% of energy consumption in rural and urban areas. The overall assessment of the forestry and agriculture sectors in Tanzania makes these sectors major carbon sinks thus making Tanzania a net sink of Greenhouse gases. (Forest cover: 35million ha)

16. Opportunities for low carbon growth in Tanzania (4) Other Specific opportunities: Resource (including energy) utilization efficiency and conservation particularly in the transport, construction and industry sectors. Addressing the challenges low electrification (only 14 of the population connected to the national grid) by modern technologies/approaches The need for optimum energy mix for the electricity generation, move from 60% hydro and 40% thermal to at least 39% hydro and 61% thermal, respectively, by 2031. Promotion of unexploited renewable energy and clean fossil fuel resources which can contribute to the sustainable low carbon economic growth.

17. Opportunities for low carbon growth – Energy sector ResourcesPotentialsDeveloped Hydro Power4,700MW, (firm Capacity (3,200)12% (562 MW) Natural gasSongosongo-30mill.m3, Mnazi Bay- 15mill.m3 several new discoveries 361 MW Coal13200 Million Tons (300 Million Tons at Kiwira Field). 0.04% /annum Biomass wood1.8 Billion, m32.2% /annum Biomass residues Crop residues= 15Million Tons/annum Animal droppings=25Million Tons/annum Volatile solids of sisal waste= 0.2Million Tons/annum. Forest residues=1.1 Million Tons/annum About 1,000 biogas digester units of 50m 3 22.75 MW electricity from steam and sisal plants. 3.5MW from forest residues.

18. Opportunities ….. Energy sector ResourcesPotentialsDeveloped WindSpeed 0.9 – 9.9 m/s129 windmills (8.5kWp) Feasibility studies on going SolarApproximately 215 W/m2/day More than 2MWelect. GeothermalAbout 650MWStudies are being undertaken. NuclearUranium potentialNot exploited (No studies) Tidal waveIndications of potentialStudies are being undertaken

19. Opportunities (5) Energy and Forestry sectors In a nutshell emerging opportunities include: Switching to cleaner fuels in the household sector. Co- benefits include cleaner and modern energy for cooking particularly for the growing urban population. Integrated forestry management and conservation including, agroforestry, bioenergy farms, multi- purpose forests etc. This will contribute in reduced emissions. CC is an opportunity for technology transfer to developing countries like Tanzania.

20. Opportunities...low carbon growth (6 ) The use of REDD will depend on the global architecture; especially, establishment of a funding window within the Green Climate Fund for REDD and the adoption of the fund based mechanism whereby the government and local communities can benefit from conserving the forests; Tanzania is currently preparing the National CC Strategy and Action Plan; which will include opportunities in areas of intervention. The Cancun Agreement on formulation Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) is an opportunity for Tanzania and development partners to effectively tape. CDM and other emerging carbon trade mechanisms can be used to advance low carbon growth strategy.

21. Initiatives to address climate change in Tanzania National Environment Policy (NEP, 1997) & EMA, 2004. Preparation of Initial National communications (i.e. 2003), second national communication is still in progress. Undertaken climate change related Technological Needs Assessment, 2010. Preparation of CDM Investor’s Guide, 2004. Currently being updated. Establishment of DNA (2004)-VPO-DOE is the DNA. Mainstreaming Environment (including CC)in MKUKUTA.

22. Initiatives to address climate change in Tanzania (2) Preparation of the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA, 2007). In-depth Analysis of CC impacts on Agriculture, Health and Water sectors (compliment to the NAPA) 2009. Formulation of a Strategy For Urgent Actions on Land Degradation and Water Catchments, 2006. Established the National Climate Change Steering Committee (NCCSC) –PS of All sectors & relevant sectors of Zanzibar. (2008) Established the National Climate Change Technical Committee (NCCTC) – Directors. (2008) Continuously undertakes awareness raising on climate change to public, policy and decision makers.

23. Conclusion and recommendations Climate change presents both challenges and opportunities for achieving sustainable development in Tanzania. Tanzania can not address these challenges without international support. Tanzania will need enhanced and accelerated deliverly of modern energy services so as to be able to sustain its economic growth and address poverty imperatives. Achieving this without significantly increasing emissions is a challenge to be addressed by Tanzanians and the international community.

24. Conclusion and recommendations (2) Opportunities for reduced emissions as Tanzania aspires for its sustainable development objectives do exist. However, a more strategic approach is required to ensure that the concept of low carbon growth works for Tanzania, particularly increased support from international community both bilaterally and from the use of the multilateral approaches under the Convention (UNFCCC) and adaptation needs of the local communities.

25. Conclusion and recommendations (3) Even though many sectors present potential opportunity for mitigation of ghg (e.g.: Energy, Transport, Urban waste management, Forest and Industry), funding, capacity building and technology transfer are the pre-requisite for the maximum exploitation of these potentials for sustainable development through, among others, low carbon development strategy. Adaptation remains our priority. Low carbon development opportunities need to be progressive, bringing visible and tangible benefits to the country as a whole including lower income groups, and not further entrenching poverty in developing countries like Tanzania.

26. THANK YOU!