1. Information Systems Planning Lecture 19

2. Summary of Previous Lecture Strategic uses of IT, Historical overview  Whither the internet revolution? Cheap Revolution  Profitability of IT revolution  GRAINGER Case Study Definitions review E-Business Drivers Does IT Still Matter? Nicholas Carr

3. Summary of Previous Lecture How IT still matters  Working inward  Working outward  Working Across Working Inward  B2E, Intranet  Intranet Applications  General Electric Case Study

4. Summary of Previous Lecture  Fostering a sense of belonging Working Outward  B2C  Electronic Tenders  Getting closer to customers  Amazon.com web example  Problems and Advantages of Working outward  The E-Business Model

5. Summary of Previous Lecture Working Across  B2B model  Coordinating with co-suppliers  Levels of system integration  What is a Value chain?  DELL Computer case Example

6. Today’s Lecture Introduction  Types of planning  Why is planning so difficult? The Changing World of Planning  Traditional Strategy-Making  Today’s Sense-and-Respond Approach

7. Today’s Lecture cont. Seven Planning Techniques  Stages of Growth  Critical Success Factors  Competitive Forces Model Five Forces Analysis of the Internet  Value Chain Analysis  E-Business Value Matrix  Linkage Analysis Planning  Scenario Planning

8. Introduction IS management is becoming more difficult and more important at the same time:  Technology changing so fast: “Why bother?” Vs. Most organizations’ survival is dependant on technology  How to resolve this apparent paradox?

9. Good News = variety of approaches, tools and mechanisms available Bad News = no ‘best’ way to go about it Introduction

10. Introduction cont. It is important to establish the appropriate mindset for planning:  Some managers believe = “determining what decisions to make in the future”  Better view = developing a view of the future that guides decision making today  Subtle difference = ‘strategy making’ Strategy = stating the direction in which you want to go and how you intend to get there  The result of strategy-making is a plan

11. Why Planning Is So Difficult Types of Planning: Planning is usually defined in three forms, which correspond to the three planning ‘horizons’. (Figure 4-1)  Strategic = 3-5 years  Tactical = 1-2 years  Operational 6 months – 1 year

12. Types of Planning

13. Introduction cont. Why Planning Is So Difficult?:  Business Goals and Systems Plans Need to Align  Strategic systems plans need to align with business goals and support those objectives  Fortunately = trend for CIOs to be part of senior management  Technologies Are Rapidly Changing  How can you plan when information technologies are changing so rapidly  Continuous planning?  Old days of planning at ‘start of year’ = gone  Advanced technology groups are needed for planning.

14. Introduction cont. Why Planning Is So Difficult cont. :  Companies Need Portfolios Rather Than Projects  Evaluation on more than their individual merit  How they fit into other projects and how they balance the portfolio of projects  Infrastructure Development is Difficult to Fund  Despite everyone “knowing infrastructure development is crucial”, it is extremely difficult to get funding just to develop or improve infrastructure  Often done under the sponsorship of a large application project  Challenge = develop improved applications and improve infrastructure over time

15. Introduction cont.  Responsibility Needs to be Joint  Business planning, not just a technology issue  Other planning issues  Top-down Vs. bottom-up; radical change Vs. continuous  Planning culture COME QUICK! I have nowhere to put my yearly planner! IT Planning is not like This one!

16. The Changing World of Planning Internet etc. = ‘introduced’ speed into the business environment and transformed how people think about time, how much time they have to plan, react to competitors etc. Traditional Strategy-Making: 1. Business executives created a strategic business plan = where the business wanted to go 2. IS executives created an IS strategic plan = how IT would support the business plan 3. IT implementation plan created = describe exactly how the IS strategic plan would be implemented

17. The Changing World of Planning Assumptions:  The future can be predicted  Time is available to do these 3 parts  IS supports and follows the business  Top management knows best (broadest view of firm)  Company = like an ‘Army’

18. The Changing World of Planning

19. The Changing World of Planning cont. Today, due to the Internet and other technological advances, these assumptions no longer hold true:  The future cannot be predicted Who predicted Internet, Amazon, eBay etc.?  Time is not available for the sequence  IS does not JUST support the business anymore Figure 2-8  Top management may not know best Inside out Vs. outside in approach (Figure 4-3)  An organization is not like an army Industrial era metaphor no longer always applies

22. Today’s Sense-and-Response Approach If yesterday’s assumptions no longer hold true, what is taking the ‘old’ approach’s place?:  Let Strategies Unfold Rather Than Plan Them: In times of fast paced change (like today!) this is risky When predictions are ‘risky’, the way to move into the future is step by step using a sense-and-respond approach  Sense a new opportunity and immediately respond via testing it via an experiment  Myriad of small experiments (Figure 4-6)

23. Today’s Sense-and-Response Approach  Formulate strategy closest to the action: Close contact with the market Employees who interact daily with customers, suppliers and partners Employees who are closest to the future should become prime strategists. In the ‘Internet Age’ they are often younger employees

24. The Changing World of Planning

25. Abandoned proprietary network despite big $ when it did not capture enough customers Moved on to buying Internet Companies as well as aligning with Sun to promote Java Over time = moved into a variety of technologies: – – Web, Cable news, Digital movies, Cable modems, Handheld OS, Video server, Music, Multiplayer gaming Not all came from ‘top management’ Getting its fingers into every pie that might become important MICROSOFT Case example: Sense and Respond Strategy-Making

26. Different Microsoft Products http://www.microsoft.com/enable/products/default.aspx

27. Today’s Sense-and-Response Approach cont. If yesterday’s assumptions no longer hold true, what is taking the ‘old’ approach’s place? Guide Strategy-Making with a ‘Strategic Envelope’:  Having a myriad of potential corporate strategies being tested in parallel could lead to anarchy without a central guiding mechanism  Top management set the parameters for the experiments (= a ‘strategic envelope’), and then continually manage that context  Need to meet often to discuss: Shifts in the marketplace How well each of the experiments is proceeding

28. New GM believed change would only occur if he went directly to his ‘front lines’ (gas station employees). Set aside 50% of his time Goal = not to drive strategy from ‘Corporate’ (tried and failed dismally) but to interact directly with the grass roots and support their initiatives Technique = use of action labs (6 to 8 people): – – Week long retailing ‘boot camp’, peer challenges, ‘hot seats’, 60 day plan implementations, report back etc. – – Projects yielded many more projects Guidance and encouragement came from the top, so that there was not complete chaos SHELL OIL Case example: Guide Strategy-Making with a ‘Strategic Envelope’

29. SHELL OIL Web Portal Now utilizing Social Media

30. Today’s Sense-and-Response Approach cont. If yesterday’s assumptions no longer hold true, what is taking the ‘old’ approach’s place? cont. : Be at the Table :  IS executives have not always been involved in business strategising  This situation is untenable in today’s ‘Internet-driven’ world.  Note: first = need to make IS department credible Test the Future  Need to test potential futures before the business is ready for them (thinking ahead of the business)  Provide funding for experiments  Have an emerging technologies group

31. Today’s Sense-and-Response Approach cont. If yesterday’s assumptions no longer hold true, what is taking the ‘old’ approach’s place? cont. : Put the Infrastructure in Place:  Moving quickly in Internet commerce means having the right IT infrastructure in place. .  Recommended that IT ‘experiments’ include those that test ‘painful’ infrastructure issues such as how to:  Create and maintain common, consistent data definitions  Create and encourage mobile commercial standards among handheld devices  Implement e-commerce security and privacy measures  Determine operational platforms (ERP, Supply Chain Management …)

32. Seven Planning Techniques 1. Stages of Growth 2. Critical Success Factors 3. Competitive Forces Model 4. Value Chain Analysis 5. E-business Value Matrix 6. Linkage Analysis Planning 7. Scenario Planning

33. Stages of Growth

34. 1. Stages of Growth Stage One: Early Successes: Increased interest and experimentation Stage Two: Contagion: Interest grows rapidly; learning period for the field Stage Three: Control: Efforts begun toward standardization Stage Four: Integration: Pattern is repeated Example (Figure 4-5):  DP Era1960 – early ’80s  Micro eraearly ’80s – late ’90s  Network era late’90s – 2010..

36. 1. Stages of Growth cont. The eras overlap each other slightly at points of “technology discontinuity”  Proponents of the proven old dominant design struggle with proponents of the new and unproven designs ‘Inevitably’ the new (proven) win out Importance of the theory is understanding where a technology or company resides on the organizational learning curve  e.g. too much control at the learning and experimentation stage can kill of new uses of technology Management principles differ from stage to stage Different technologies are in different stages at any point in time

37. Critical Success Factors

38. 2. Critical Success Factors Popular planning approach that can be used to help companies identify information systems they need to develop / improve For each executive, CSFs are the few key areas of the job where things must go right for the organization to flourish Time dependent (must be re-examined) Four sources:  industry the business is in,  company itself and situation within industry,  environment (consumer trends), and  temporal organizational factors (inventory)

39. 2. Critical Success Factors cont. Used to determine factors critical to accomplish corporate objectives and corresponding measures Can be used to identify IS plans that need to be developed

40. Competitive Forces Model

41. 3. Competitive Forces Model Companies must contend with five competitive forces which you need to analyse (Figure 4-6) : 1 Threat of new entrants 2 Bargaining power of customers and buyers 3 Bargaining power of suppliers 4 Substitute products or services 5 The intensity of rivalry among competitors

43. 3. Competitive Forces Model cont. Three strategies for dealing with these competitive forces: 1. Differentiate product and services - make them “better” in the eyes of the consumer 2. Be the lowest-cost producer - not just a low-cost producer 3. Find a niche - e.g.: geographical market

44.   The Internet tends to reduce the profitability of industries and reduce firms’ ability to create sustainable operational advantages because:   It increases the bargaining power of buyers   Decreases barriers to the entry of new competitor   Increases the bargaining power of suppliers   Increases the threat of substitute products and services, and   Intensifies rivalry among competitors   Recommend = focus on your strategic position in an industry and how you will maintain profitability   Not growth, market share or revenue Framework Example Five Forces Analysis of the Internet

45. Value Chain Analysis

46. 4. Value Chain Analysis Five primary activities that form the sequence of the value chain: 1 Inbound logistics: receiving and handling inputs 2 Operations: converting inputs to the product/service 3 Outbound logistics: collect, store, and distribute the product/service to buyers 4 Marketing and sales: the means/incentives for buyers to buy the product/service 5 Service: enhancements/maintenance of the value of the product/service

47. 4. Value Chain Analysis cont. Four supporting activities that underlie the entire value chain: 1 Organizational infrastructure 2 Human resources management 3 Technology development 4 Procurement Virtual Value Chains  Marketspaces where information substitutes for physical

49. AN AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURER Case Example – Virtual Value Chain The rental car subsidiary turned to auctioning off clean used cars to dealers to sell, via marketspace Dealers can view the cars (and their stats) to be auctioned from a screen in their dealership, and then place bids during the online auction, held once or twice a month The auction saves them time and effort, and the cars are guaranteed

50. E-Business Value Matrix

51. It can be difficult for executives to prioritise projects, therefore a ‘portfolio’ management approach is valuable. Tool used by “Cisco Systems” to ensure they are developing a well-rounded portfolio of IT projects. 5. E-Business Value Matrix

52. Every IT project is meant to be placed into one of four categories to assess its value to the company (Figure 4- 8):  New fundamentals: Low, Low is to provide a fundamentally new way of working in overhead areas, not business-critical areas  Operational excellence: High in criticality to business- Low in newness of idea=medium risk because they may involve reengineering work processes  Rational experimentation: Low in criticality to business- High in newness of idea=test new technologies and ideas  Breakthrough strategy: High-High=potentially have a huge impact on the company

54. CISCO SYSTEMS Case Example – E-Business Value Matrix Cisco’s expense reporting system fits in its new fundamentals category Its executive dashboards are an example of operational excellence projects Multicast streaming video used for company meetings is a rational experiment, and Its development of a virtual supply chain is seen as a breakthrough strategy

55. CISCO Expense Reporting System Example

56. CISCO Executive Dashboard System

57. CISCO SYSTEMS Website

58. Linkage Analysis Planning

59. 6. Linkage Analysis Planning Examines the links organizations have with one another with the goal of creating a strategy for utilizing electronic channels Methodology includes the following steps:  Define power relationships among the various players and stakeholders: – Identify who has the power – Determine future threats and opportunities for the company

60. 6. Linkage Analysis Planning cont. Map out your extended enterprise (Figure 4-9) to include suppliers, buyers, and strategic partners – The enterprise’s success depends on the relationships among everyone involved – Some 70% of the final cost of goods and services is in their information content

61. 6. Linkage Analysis Planning cont. Plan your electronic channels to deliver the information component of products and services – Create, distribute, and present information and knowledge as part of a product or service or as an supplementary good

63. Scenario Planning

64. 7. Scenario Planning Scenarios are stories about the way the world might be in the future The goal of scenario planning is not to predict the future (= hard to do!), but to explore the forces that could cause different futures to take place Then decide on actions to take if those forces begin to materialize

65. 7. Scenario Planning cont. Long-term planning has traditionally extrapolated from the past and has not factored in low-probability events that could significantly alter trends  Straight-line projections have provided little help! Four steps in Scenario Planning: 1. Define a decision problem and time frame to bound the analysis 2. Identify the major known trends that will affect the decision problem 3. Identify just a few driving uncertainties 4. Construct the scenarios

66. Summary Based on the successes and failures of past information systems planning efforts, we see two necessary ingredients to a good strategic planning effort: 1. IS plans must look towards the future  Future is not likely to be an extrapolation of the past  Successful planning needs to support “peering into the future” – most likely in a sense-and-respond fashion 2. IS planning must be essential to business planning

67. Summary IS plans typically use a combination of planning techniques presented  No single technique is best and no single one is the most widely used in business Sense-and-respond is the new strategy-making mode  Creating an overall strategic envelope and conducting short experiments within that envelope, moving quickly to broaden an experiment that proves successful

68. Planning is “Peering into an unknown future”