1. Bukola Johnson LUMA-GIS, Sweden

2.  Objectives  Background  Datasets  Methodology  Results  Conclusion

3. E Effective planning and management of finite natural resources for sustainable development in Lake Victoria Region

4.  Lake Victoria: World’s 2 nd largest fresh water body  Surface boundary: Tanzania (49%), Uganda (45%) and Kenya(6%)  Economic contribution worth USD 3-4 billion annually  Sustenance for 25 million people (1/3 of the region population)  Economic activities:  Agriculture (Tea and Coffee plantation) & Fishing,  Source of water for industry & Transportation,  Recreation &Tourists attraction

5. Adm. Boundaries: Shape files for Kenya, Tanzania & Uganda from FAO Africover Shape file for Lake Victoria region (3 countries) from UNEP Climate Precipitation data for Africa in text (ASCII) format Peer- reviewed journal (New et al, 2002) DEM Two tiles from GTOPO30 E020N40.DEM covering Kenya and Uganda E020S10.DEM covering SE of Tanzania Land cover/ Land use IGBP raster in.bsq format for Africa. Population Raster files (.TIF format) for Africa population(1990 and 2000) from UNEP Protected Areas Personal Geodatabase (.mdb) for Africa from UNEP & World Conservation Union

6.  Conceptual planning and modeling.  Data previewed in Arc Catalog  Convert data to ESRI GRID format  Define data projection  Re-project data to WGS84 and Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection  The Study Area clipped from the Africa dataset.  Loading project data in Personal Geodatabase  Data Analysis

7. Country Area (Sq. Km) Population Yr. 2000 Population Yr. 1990 Annual GR (%) Kenya58216430,536,27823,465,9963.0 Tanzania94175734,522,94425,782,7203.4 Uganda24127822,961,63417,582,1363.1 Table 1: Population Growth in Lake Victoria Region

8. Land coverKenya%Tanzania%Uganda% Forest890441035192389675 Shrubland677863234934882545 Savanna644703052960125684534 Grassland160908604441320111 Permanent Wetland 1105255556812560 Croplands228471197002226172937 Urban and built-up64553191184730 Barren and Sparsely vegetated 1048151606019931 Water Bodies452922348952841117 Total212614100448640100168339100 Table 2: Land Cover Statistics for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda

9. CountryPop 2000 Area of Cropland Pop 2030 Area of Cropland Required Additional Cropland Kenya30,536,27822,847916,101,840 685,244662,397 Tanzania34,522,94497,002950,153,040 2,669,9302,572,928 Uganda22,961,63461,729774,384,990 2,081,5472,019,818 Table 3: Additional Cropland for Population in Year 2030

10.  Crop needs sufficient and effective rain to grow and produce yields.  Croplands were located in the region with middle range precipitation.  Croplands were found around Lake Victoria.

11.  The croplands situated where the elevation relatively low.  In high elevation, rain water essential for productivity runs off.

12.  Croplands are largely located in elevation range of 0-1999

13.  Finite natural resources with competing demands.  Sufficient rainfall in the region with Lake Victoria as a reservoir.  Biophysical constraint such as topography that affect land use.  Elevation influences geographical distribution of croplands.  The mean annual population growth rate is about 3% for the region.  Attendant decline in cropland per capita with population growth.

14. To ensure food security and social development:  Implement landuse regulation  Convert parts of forest land to croplands  Exploit species and hybrid plants with high yield and short maturity time  Promote Family Planning to control population explosion.