1. Data-based Decision Making: Analyzing Enrollment Data

2. PPS Enrollment Trends: 1995-2004 Enrollment estimated to level off to about 44,000 students by 2010* *Population Research Center, Portland State University, August 2004

3. PPS Enrollment Trends for Elementary Schools: 1995-2004

4. PPS Enrollment Trends for Middle Schools: 1995-2004

5. PPS Enrollment Trends for High Schools: 1995-2004

6. Elementary Schools with Major Enrollment Shifts Capitol Hill – 9.6% Boise Eliot – 10.3% Chief Joseph – 12.0% Vernon – 13.3 % Lee – 14.0% Scott – 14.3% Creston – 18.3% Kenton – 25.3% Applegate – 30.8% Forest Park – 13.3% Hayhurst – 66.5% Sunnyside Environ. – 126.1%

7. Fernwood – 9.6% Ockley Green – 9.8% Gregory Heights – 12.4% Whitaker – 14.3% Tubman – 20.6% Middle Schools with Major Enrollment Shifts

8. Decrease in births rate since 1981, (constant 5,600-5,800 annual birth rate since 1993). Fewer school-age children. Fewer young families moving into Portland than moving out. More affordable family housing available outside Portland. Residents are aging in-place. Barry Edmonston, Population Research Center, Portland State University, October 2004 What is causing declines in enrollment?

9. Most families with school-age children are still choosing Portland Public Schools – (84% capture rate) What remains constant? Barry Edmonston, Population Research Center, Portland State University, October 2004

10. What is happening in other districts? Between 1990 and 2000, 7 Multnomah County school districts gained residents, paced by mid and east county districts. -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Population: percentage change 1990-2000 REYNOLDS DAVID DOUGLAS GRESHAM- BARLOW CENTENNIALPARKROSE RIVERDALE PPS CORBETT From Report to the Leader’s Roundtable Update on Multnomah County 3 rd Grade Reading Initiative, Sept. 28, 2004

11. What is happening in other districts? PPS lost households with children while districts to the east, led strongly by Reynolds, gained them. -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% REYNOLDS DAVID DOUGLAS GRESHAM- BARLOW CENTENNIALPARKROSERIVERDALE PPS CORBETT Households with children: percentage change 1990-2000 From Report to the Leader’s Roundtable Update on Multnomah County 3 rd Grade Reading Initiative, Sept. 28, 2004

12. Criteria for Addressing Growth in School Enrollments Elementary and middle schools with 30 or more students above their ADM (average daily membership). High schools with enrollments greater than the ADM used for staffing of 75 or more students. Developed by Dr. Patricia Pickles and Area Directors

13. Other Considerations Not all positions were allocated given the current financial uncertainties. Staff work with schools to develop options (such as blends) when enrollment is high at one or two grade levels. Area Directors have discretion to make small adjustments within clusters.

14. Additional Staff Allocations (To date) SchoolFTE Forest Park Elementary School 1.3 Franklin High School3.0 Grant High School0.5 TOTAL4.8

15. Addressing Decreases in School Enrollment: Critical Questions What makes for effective schools (based on research and good practice)? Academic programming Efficient use of resources Size and learning environment What’s the Tipping Point? School Initiation and Closure Policy Implementation Steps