1. Institute for Criminal Justice Studies Crime and Prevention TRENDS ©This TCLEOSE approved Crime Prevention Curriculum is the property of CSCS-ICJS CRIME PREVENTION II

2. Objectives Consider current trends in crime and prevention Explore five major, emerging trends and challenges over the next 20 years Examine ways to meet these challenges How to use crime prevention as a strong foundation Ways to move forward

3. Why Pay Attention to Trends? TrendsTrends change our lives. A line of general direction or movement, current style or prevailing tendency or inclination.

4. How would you have called for emergency road service? Today? How could you get cash out of your bank in a strange city at 1:00 am? Today? In 1986 How would you:

5. In 1986 How would you: In 1986 How would you: Continued How big was a high-quality personal music player? Today? How bulky were televisions? Today?

6. Crime Prevention Implications Some crime prevention implications: CCell phones: AATM: LLightweight TVS: II-pods:

7. Other Recent Trends On-line banking Cyberbullying Identity theft Local terrorism

8. Understanding Crime Trends Helps Us… Anticipate prevention needs Learn from the past Reap the benefits Serve as effective advocates

9. Where Are We Now? Geography no longer governs community. The physical neighborhood around one’s residence is only part of community. People now operate in many different communities that overlap only slightly if at all.

10. Work Home Extended family Shopping Recreation Here are some of these Communities

11. Faith Professional associations Special interests (hobbies, civic, fraternal, etc.) Here are some of these Communities continued: Here are some of these Communities – continued:

12. Crime Trends and How We Count Crime Counting crime helps us track our progress. At the national level, there are currently two systems. National Crime Victimization Survey FBI Uniform Crime Reports www.fbi.gov

13. Crime Trends and How We Count Crime (cont.) Two emerging s ss systems will lead to more detailed and localized data:  FBI National I II Incident-Based Reporting System  Local Crime V VV Victimization Surveys

14. Current Crime Trends In 2007, U.S. residents (12 years and older) experienced 23 million violent and property crimes -- an estimated 1 11 18 million property crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft) and 5.2 million violent crimes (rape, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and homicide).

15. Current Crime Trends (cont.) ■ Personal and household victimizations are at 3 33 32-year lows, according to 2007 National Crime Victimization Survey data. Source - BJS - National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization, 2007) ■ FBI Uniform Crime Report data for 2007 show a 2.4 percent increase in reported v vv violent crime compared with 2006. P PP Property crimes decreased by 1.8 percent in the same period. Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation 2007

16. In 2007, 49 percent of violent crimes and 4 44 43 percent of property crimes were reported to police, a substantial increase from the 35 percent to 40 percent reporting levels in the late 1970s. Source – BJS, National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization 2007)

17. Current Crime and Prevention Issues Methamphetamine, i ii identity theft, fraud against seniors, gangs, and homeland security are among the hot issues nationwide. Many residents feel that serious crime occurs only in isolated areas within their communities.

18. Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.) Computers as tools of personal and e ee economic crime are a well- established fact. Information brokering is a n nn new criminal activity.

19. Emphasis on f ff fact-based, research- based programming is becoming a standard. Pressure to demonstrate program outcomes – not how much was done but what has changed because of it – is increasingly prevalent at national, state, and local levels.

20. Federal and state shifting of financial burdens to localities have reduce crime prevention resources. New t tt tools to help crime prevention

21. What Is the Outlook for the Future? Five major predictions TThe United States is significantly m mm more diverse. CCommunications technology is evolving dramatically.

22. technology  Data technology is expanding dramatically. People live longer  People live longer, are more active longer. educate  The need to educate each new wave of children, adolescents, and adults continues. Five major predictions - continued

23. U.S. Demographics and Diversity Predictions The United States is becoming m mm more diverse. Estimates are that by 2050, people of color (predominantly African Americans and Hispanics/Latinos) will comprise nearly a majority of the U.S. population.

24. 2010 % of TOTAL TOTAL100.0 White alone79.3 Black alone13.1 Asian alone4.6 All other races 3.0 Hispanic 15.5 (of any race) White alone 65.1 (not Hispanic) * Includes American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, and Two or More Races Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, "U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin,“ www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/> THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE UNDOCUMENTED ALIENS

25. 2030 % of TOTAL TOTAL100.0 White alone75.8 Black alone13.9 Asian alone6.2 All other races 4.1 20.1 Hispanic 20.1 (of any race) 57.5 White alone 57.5 (not Hispanic) THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE UNDOCUMENTED ALIENS

26. U.S. Demographics and Diversity Challenges We will have more diverse languages, cultures, norms, issues of personal and group behaviors, and ideas of lawful behavior and activity.

27. Laws and enforcement of the laws we have in place may conflict with the customs and experiences of diverse populations. One size will not fit all in crime prevention. U.S. Demographics and Diversity Challenges – cont’d

28. U.S. Demographics and Diversity Recommendations Develop ways to explain legal and enforcement systems so they can be understood by diverse populations. How could this impact adversely on Crime Prevention?

29. Develop c cc crime prevention strategies to reach widely different populations in languages and frameworks that meet their needs. Find and build b bb bridges between law enforcement and various cultural groups. Diversity Recommendations – Cont’d

30. Communications Technology Predictions CommunicationsCommunications Youth of todayYouth of today TechnologyTechnology

31. Communications Challenges Communication Intentions NetworksLinks and Networks between criminals Technology legalLE Technical, legal administrative barriers

32. Communications Technology Recommendations strategiesDevelop strategies that help youth youthIdentify and teach youth, adults, and seniors

33. Data Technology Predictions More information will be concentrated in more places. More links will be established across i ii information sources. More e ee economic resources will be electronically accessible.

34. Data Technology Predictions (cont.) Less direct personal contact in business, and finance Technological race between criminals and law enforcement Every c cc computer user – home or workplace

35. Data Technology Challenges Innovations will expand Innovation Generations

36. Data Technology Recommendations Tailor approaches Educate people Encourage industry

37. Older Populations Predictions People will live l ll longer Larger population of o oo older people People will be p pp productive into older ages Individual retirees

38. Older Populations Challenges Older p pp people are less likely to Older people are more vulnerable Many in this age group will need

39. Older Populations Recommendations Develop c cc crime prevention strategies Develop b bb behavioral, technological, and hardware crime prevention techniques Because travel and activity are likely to be part of older people’s lifestyles, teach c cc crime prevention accordingly.

40. Generation Gaps in Knowledge Predictions Crime prevention d dd differs People frequently don’t t tt teach Each generation

41. Generation Gaps in Knowledge Challenges It is hard to p pp predict precisely how future trends will affect crime prevention It is not clear

42. Generation Gaps in Knowledge Recommendations We must persist We need to We should

43. Crime Prevention Tools and Benefits The ten Principles of Crime Prevention set forth by the Crime Prevention Coalition of America – Engaging the Power of Prevention (2007) – provide guidance to everyone about how to build and sustain crime prevention programs and strategies.

44. The 10 Principles of Crime Prevention 1.Preventing crime is e ee everyone's business 2.Preventing crime is more than s ss security 3.Preventing crime is a responsibility of a aa all levels of government and agencies of government 4.Preventing crime is linked with solving social problems 5.Preventing crime is c cc cost-effective

45. 10 Principles Continued… Preventing crime 6.Requires a c cc central role in law enforcement 7.Requires an active c cc cooperation and collaboration by all elements of the community 8.Requires e ee education 9.Requires tailoring to local needs and conditions 10.Requires continual t tt testing and improvement

46. Crime Prevention Improves The Quality of Life for Every Community

47. Building on Experience A look at achievements of crime prevention will help us update crime prevention strategies for the future. “We can chart our future clearly and wisely only when we know the path which has led to the present.” - Adlai Stevenson

48. The 1970s Crime prevention is seen by the public as the responsibility of police. The concept of c cc citizen action to reduce crime emerges from Law Enforcement Assistance Administration-sponsored programs. Neighborhood Watch is born.

49. The 1980s Major Developments The r rr role of y yy youth in crime prevention Comprehensive action-focused community planning emerges.

50. The 1990s Crime Prevention Coalition of America publishes Principles of Crime Prevention. Violence prevention programs proliferate in response to a rise in youth crime. The c cc costs of crime are more thoroughly documented.

51. The 1990s The 1990s(cont.) Comprehensive f ff fact-based prevention approaches gain momentum. School s ss safety becomes a major issue.

52. Today, Our Base is Strong Communities are safer than in the 1970s. People see themselves as having an important role in making their communities safer. Crime prevention has a wider foundation than just l ll law enforcement.

53. The Coalition, NCPC, and McGruff continue to provide focus and resources. The Bureau of Justice Assistance

54. Opportunities for Crime Prevention in the 21 st Century Build w ww worldwide links to strengthen prevention. Make new c cc communications technology effective in teaching crime prevention.

55. Incorporate p pp prevention in new technologies. Enlist new g gg generation in crime prevention. Strengthen and i ii institutionalize crime prevention. Opportunities for Crime Prevention in the 21 st Century – Cont’d

56. Hold on – just a minute!

57. The Future Just Changed The f ff future is not guaranteed. We can p pp predict but not promise.

58. Prediction helps us think about the future, which helps us prepare for change, whatever it looks like. The best advice is to stay alert, stay u uu up-to-date, stay flexible, stay committed – and stay safe!

59. National Crime Prevention Council 1000 Connecticut Avenue, NW Thirteenth Floor Washington, DC 20036-5325 202-466-6272 www.ncpc.org

60. TEAM PRACTICAL EXCERCISE TEAM I – Crime Prevention Implications, Other recent trends, understanding crime trends and where we are now. TEAM II – Crime trends and how we count crime, current crime trends, current crime prevention issues. TEAM III – What is out look for the future, US demographics and diversity predictions, demographics and diversity challenges, and recommendations. TEAM IV – Communications technology predictions, communications challenges, communication technology recommendations. Data technology predictions, challenges and recommendations. TEAM V – Older population predictions, challenges, recommendations, Generation gaps in knowledge predictions, challenges and recommendations.

61. Presenter Contact Information 350 N. Guadalupe, Suite 140, PMB 164 San Marcos, Texas 78666. 877-304-2727 www.cscs.txstate.edu