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National Crime Prevention Council 2005 Crime Prevention Trends 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "National Crime Prevention Council 2005 Crime Prevention Trends 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 National Crime Prevention Council 2005 Crime Prevention Trends 2005

2 National Crime Prevention Council Objectives Current trends in crime and prevention Current trends in crime and prevention Five major, emerging trends and challenges over the next 20 years Five major, emerging trends and challenges over the next 20 years How to meet these challenges How to meet these challenges Crime prevention as a strong foundation Crime prevention as a strong foundation Going forward Going forward

3 National Crime Prevention Council Understanding Crime Trends Helps Us… Anticipate prevention needs in new contexts Anticipate prevention needs in new contexts Learn from the past about how to implement prevention strategies for the future Learn from the past about how to implement prevention strategies for the future Reap the benefits of crime prevention Reap the benefits of crime prevention Serve as effective advocates for crime prevention Serve as effective advocates for crime prevention

4 National Crime Prevention Council Where Are We Now? The “nontraditional” community has become the norm, with people operating in numerous communities that overlap only slightly. The “nontraditional” community has become the norm, with people operating in numerous communities that overlap only slightly.  Work  Home  Extended family  Shopping  Recreation  Faith  Professional  Special interests (hobbies, civic, fraternal, etc.)

5 National Crime Prevention Council Crime Trends and How We Count Crime Currently… National Crime Victimization Survey by the Bureau of Justice Statistics includes what happened, victims, and circumstances, but is not useful at state or local level. National Crime Victimization Survey by the Bureau of Justice Statistics includes what happened, victims, and circumstances, but is not useful at state or local level. FBI Uniform Crime Reports tell only what has been reported to the system. It provides no details about the victim or circumstances. FBI Uniform Crime Reports tell only what has been reported to the system. It provides no details about the victim or circumstances.

6 National Crime Prevention Council Crime Trends and How We Count Crime (cont.) Emerging systems Emerging systems FBI National Incident-Based Reporting System provides key information about the victim and circumstances in reported crime. FBI National Incident-Based Reporting System provides key information about the victim and circumstances in reported crime. Local Crime Victimization Surveys are now possible through use of off-the-shelf software from the National Institute of Justice and the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Results: better localized state and national data Results: better localized state and national data

7 National Crime Prevention Council Current Crime Trends In 2003, U.S. residents (12 years and older) experienced 24.2 million violent and property crimes. There were 18.6 million property crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft). There were 5.4 million violent crimes (rape, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and homicide). In 2003, U.S. residents (12 years and older) experienced 24.2 million violent and property crimes. There were 18.6 million property crimes (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft). There were 5.4 million violent crimes (rape, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and homicide).

8 National Crime Prevention Council Current Crime Trends (cont.) ■Personal and household victimizations are at 30-year lows, according to 2003 data. Source - BJS - National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization, 2003)

9 National Crime Prevention Council Current Crime Trends (cont.) Almost 60 percent of crimes are reported to police, a substantial increase from the 35 percent to 40 percent of crimes reported in the 1970s. Almost 60 percent of crimes are reported to police, a substantial increase from the 35 percent to 40 percent of crimes reported in the 1970s. Source – BJS, National Crime Victimization Survey (Criminal Victimization , Criminal Victimization, 2003)

10 National Crime Prevention Council Current Crime Trends (cont.)

11 National Crime Prevention Council Current Crime Prevention Issues Methamphetamine, identity theft, fraud against seniors, gangs, and homeland security are among the hot issues. Methamphetamine, identity theft, fraud against seniors, gangs, and homeland security are among the hot issues. There is a general view that serious crime is isolated in communities. There is a general view that serious crime is isolated in communities. Computers as personal and economic crime tools are a well-established fact. Computers as personal and economic crime tools are a well-established fact.

12 National Crime Prevention Council Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.) Emphasis on fact-based, research-based programming is emerging. Emphasis on fact-based, research-based programming is emerging. Pressure to demonstrate program outcomes – not how much was done but what has changed because of it – is beginning to emerge. Pressure to demonstrate program outcomes – not how much was done but what has changed because of it – is beginning to emerge.

13 National Crime Prevention Council Current Crime Prevention Issues (cont.) Federal and state financial cuts are reducing prevention (and other) funding. Federal and state financial cuts are reducing prevention (and other) funding. New tools (crime mapping, crime analysis, , web, etc.) have become available, New tools (crime mapping, crime analysis, , web, etc.) have become available, though they are underused. though they are underused.

14 National Crime Prevention Council What Is the Outlook for the Future? Five major predictions Five major predictions –The United States is significantly more diverse. –Communications technology is evolving dramatically. –Data technology is expanding dramatically. –People live longer, are more active longer. –The need to educate each new wave of children, adolescents, and adults continues.

15 National Crime Prevention Council U.S. Demographics and Diversity Predictions The United States is becoming more diverse – racially, linguistically, culturally, ethnically. The United States is becoming more diverse – racially, linguistically, culturally, ethnically. Estimates are that by 2050, people of color (predominantly African Americans and Hispanics/Latinos) will be close to the majority. Estimates are that by 2050, people of color (predominantly African Americans and Hispanics/Latinos) will be close to the majority.

16 National Crime Prevention Council Projected Population of the United States, by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to % of TOTAL TOTAL White alone Black alone Asian Alone All other races * Hispanic (of any race) White alone (not Hispanic) * Includes American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, and Two or More Races Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, "U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin,“

17 National Crime Prevention Council U.S. Demographics and Diversity Challenges We will have more diverse languages, cultures, norms, issues of personal and group behaviors, and ideas of lawful behavior and activity. We will have more diverse languages, cultures, norms, issues of personal and group behaviors, and ideas of lawful behavior and activity. Laws and enforcement of the laws we have in place may conflict with the customs and experiences of diverse populations. Laws and enforcement of the laws we have in place may conflict with the customs and experiences of diverse populations. One size will not fit all in crime prevention. One size will not fit all in crime prevention.

18 National Crime Prevention Council U.S. Demographics and Diversity Recommendations Develop ways to explain legal and enforcement systems so they can be understood by diverse populations. Develop ways to explain legal and enforcement systems so they can be understood by diverse populations. Develop crime prevention strategies to reach radically different populations and their perspectives. Develop crime prevention strategies to reach radically different populations and their perspectives. Find and build bridges between law enforcement and these cultures. Find and build bridges between law enforcement and these cultures.

19 National Crime Prevention Council Communications Technology Predictions Communications capabilities are growing exponentially. Communications capabilities are growing exponentially. The youth of today are used to being connected routinely by picture as well as voice with people living thousands of miles away. This will increase. The youth of today are used to being connected routinely by picture as well as voice with people living thousands of miles away. This will increase. Technology will allow for faster communication, closer and closer to “real time” exchanges. Technology will allow for faster communication, closer and closer to “real time” exchanges.

20 National Crime Prevention Council Communications Challenges People may not be able to tell the true intentions of all those they communicate with. People may not be able to tell the true intentions of all those they communicate with. Links between criminals across national borders will grow. Networks of criminals will become larger, less detectable, and harder to stop. Links between criminals across national borders will grow. Networks of criminals will become larger, less detectable, and harder to stop.

21 National Crime Prevention Council Communications Challenges (cont.) Technology – whether used for productive or destructive purposes – crosses national borders while our law enforcement and legal systems are largely restricted by national borders. Technology – whether used for productive or destructive purposes – crosses national borders while our law enforcement and legal systems are largely restricted by national borders.

22 National Crime Prevention Council Communications Technology Recommendations Develop strategies that help youth understand the risks and apply a healthy level of skepticism when instantaneously communicating. Develop strategies that help youth understand the risks and apply a healthy level of skepticism when instantaneously communicating. Identify and teach youth, adults, and seniors preventive strategies against stalking, bullying, and other predatory behaviors that are increasingly found in the use of communications technology. Identify and teach youth, adults, and seniors preventive strategies against stalking, bullying, and other predatory behaviors that are increasingly found in the use of communications technology.

23 National Crime Prevention Council Data Technology Predictions More Information More Information –Financial –Identification –Medical –Employment More links across information sources More links across information sources More economic resources electronically accessible More economic resources electronically accessible

24 National Crime Prevention Council Data Technology Predictions (cont.) Less direct personal contact in business, finance – more room for deception Less direct personal contact in business, finance – more room for deception Technological race between criminals and law enforcement Technological race between criminals and law enforcement

25 National Crime Prevention Council Data Technology Challenges Innovations will expand faster than people can learn about and master the changes. Innovations will expand faster than people can learn about and master the changes. Increased innovation creates room for criminal creativity, thus changing and increasing the risk of crime. Increased innovation creates room for criminal creativity, thus changing and increasing the risk of crime. Generations will differ in their degree of comfort with technological change and innovation. They will thus experience different risks and need different prevention strategies. Generations will differ in their degree of comfort with technological change and innovation. They will thus experience different risks and need different prevention strategies.

26 National Crime Prevention Council Data Technology Recommendations Tailor approaches based on the vulnerabilities facing different groups – older, younger, more and less experienced, etc. Tailor approaches based on the vulnerabilities facing different groups – older, younger, more and less experienced, etc. Educate people on how to protect themselves using a combination of technology-based safeguards and behavior. Educate people on how to protect themselves using a combination of technology-based safeguards and behavior. Encourage industry to help bridge technology and behavior in prevention strategies – building prevention into the innovation. Encourage industry to help bridge technology and behavior in prevention strategies – building prevention into the innovation.

27 National Crime Prevention Council Older Populations Predictions People will live longer. People will live longer. There will be a larger population of older people – the baby boomers. There will be a larger population of older people – the baby boomers. People will be productive into older ages, whether traveling or with “hobby jobs.” People will be productive into older ages, whether traveling or with “hobby jobs.” Wealth will be concentrated in older age groups. Wealth will be concentrated in older age groups. Individual retirees, not employer pension funds, will be responsible for managing retirement assets. Individual retirees, not employer pension funds, will be responsible for managing retirement assets.

28 National Crime Prevention Council Male and Female Population of 2050 Higher Concentrations of People 65+

29 National Crime Prevention Council Older Populations Challenges Older people are less likely to stay in touch with innovations in technology. Older people are less likely to stay in touch with innovations in technology. Older people are more vulnerable to electronic crime. They control their own retirement assets, yet may be less technologically savvy. Older people are more vulnerable to electronic crime. They control their own retirement assets, yet may be less technologically savvy. A larger group will benefit from crime prevention strategies that take into account cognitive or physical impairments. A larger group will benefit from crime prevention strategies that take into account cognitive or physical impairments.

30 National Crime Prevention Council Older Populations Recommendations Develop crime prevention strategies that make effective links between older persons’ experiences and prevention strategies necessary in new technology and communications settings. Develop crime prevention strategies that make effective links between older persons’ experiences and prevention strategies necessary in new technology and communications settings. Develop behavior and hardware strategies that interlink to help reduce vulnerabilities in general, with special attention to the needs of those with impairments. Develop behavior and hardware strategies that interlink to help reduce vulnerabilities in general, with special attention to the needs of those with impairments. Because travel and activity are likely to be part of older people’s lifestyles, teach accordingly. Because travel and activity are likely to be part of older people’s lifestyles, teach accordingly.

31 National Crime Prevention Council Generation Gaps in Knowledge Predictions Crime prevention differs for children, youth, and adults. Crime prevention differs for children, youth, and adults. People frequently don’t teach these skills to their children or bring them to their new life situations. People frequently don’t teach these skills to their children or bring them to their new life situations. Each generation needs to be taught anew at each stage. Each generation needs to be taught anew at each stage. Reteaching of crime prevention strategies is necessary. Reteaching of crime prevention strategies is necessary.

32 National Crime Prevention Council Generation Gaps in Knowledge Challenges It is hard to predict precisely how future trends will affect crime prevention strategies for different life stages – but we can be sure that they will. It is hard to predict precisely how future trends will affect crime prevention strategies for different life stages – but we can be sure that they will. It is not clear how often people need to be reminded or reeducated about different prevention strategies. It is not clear how often people need to be reminded or reeducated about different prevention strategies.

33 National Crime Prevention Council Generation Gaps in Knowledge Recommendations We must persist in renewing crime prevention education for each age group. We must persist in renewing crime prevention education for each age group. We need to assess new crime and crime prevention trends as they apply to each age group. We need to assess new crime and crime prevention trends as they apply to each age group. We should create intergenerational crime prevention strategies that engage people in teaching each other. We should create intergenerational crime prevention strategies that engage people in teaching each other.

34 National Crime Prevention Council Crime Prevention Tools and Benefits The ten Principles of Crime Prevention set forth by the Crime Prevention Coalition of America –Power of Prevention, 2005– are a solid guide as we develop and sustain new crime prevention strategies while sustaining the relevant existing ones. The ten Principles of Crime Prevention set forth by the Crime Prevention Coalition of America –Power of Prevention, 2005– are a solid guide as we develop and sustain new crime prevention strategies while sustaining the relevant existing ones.

35 National Crime Prevention Council The 10 Principles of Crime Prevention Preventing crime is everyone's business Preventing crime is everyone's business Preventing crime is more than security Preventing crime is more than security Preventing crime is a responsibility of all levels of government and agencies of government Preventing crime is a responsibility of all levels of government and agencies of government Preventing crime is linked with solving social problems Preventing crime is linked with solving social problems Preventing crime is cost-effective Preventing crime is cost-effective

36 National Crime Prevention Council Principles Continued… Preventing crime Requires a central role in law enforcement Requires a central role in law enforcement Requires an active cooperation and collaboration by all elements of the community Requires an active cooperation and collaboration by all elements of the community Requires education Requires education Requires tailoring to local needs and conditions Requires tailoring to local needs and conditions Requires continual testing and improvement Requires continual testing and improvement

37 National Crime Prevention Council Crime Prevention Improves The Quality of Life for Every Community

38 National Crime Prevention Council Building on Experience A look at achievements of crime prevention will help us update crime prevention strategies for the future. A look at achievements of crime prevention will help us update crime prevention strategies for the future. “We can chart our future clearly and wisely only when we know the path which has led to the present.” - Adlai Stevenson

39 National Crime Prevention Council The 1970s Crime prevention is seen by the public as the responsibility of police. Crime prevention is seen by the public as the responsibility of police. The concept of citizen action to reduce crime emerges from Law Enforcement Assistance Administration-sponsored programs. The concept of citizen action to reduce crime emerges from Law Enforcement Assistance Administration-sponsored programs. Neighborhood Watch is born. Neighborhood Watch is born.

40 National Crime Prevention Council The 1980s Major Developments Major Developments –Crime Prevention Coalition of America –McGruff the Crime Dog® –National Citizens’ Crime Prevention Campaign The role of youth in crime prevention is recognized and engaged. The role of youth in crime prevention is recognized and engaged. Comprehensive action-focused community planning emerges. Comprehensive action-focused community planning emerges.

41 National Crime Prevention Council The 1990s Crime Prevention Coalition of America publishes 11 Principles of Crime Prevention. Crime Prevention Coalition of America publishes 11 Principles of Crime Prevention. Violence prevention programs proliferate in response to a rise in youth crime. Violence prevention programs proliferate in response to a rise in youth crime. The costs of crime are more thoroughly documented. The costs of crime are more thoroughly documented.

42 National Crime Prevention Council The 1990s(cont.) Comprehensive fact-based prevention approaches gain momentum. Comprehensive fact-based prevention approaches gain momentum. School safety becomes a major issue. School safety becomes a major issue.

43 National Crime Prevention Council Today, Our Base is Strong Communities are safer than in the 1970s. Communities are safer than in the 1970s. People see themselves as having a role in making their communities safer. People see themselves as having a role in making their communities safer. Crime prevention has a wider foundation than just law enforcement. Crime prevention has a wider foundation than just law enforcement. The Coalition, NCPC, and McGruff continue to provide focus and resources. The Coalition, NCPC, and McGruff continue to provide focus and resources.

44 National Crime Prevention Council Opportunities for Crime Prevention Make new communication technology effective in teaching crime prevention. Make new communication technology effective in teaching crime prevention. Build worldwide links to strengthen prevention. Build worldwide links to strengthen prevention. Incorporate prevention in new technologies. Incorporate prevention in new technologies. Enlist new generation in crime prevention. Enlist new generation in crime prevention. Strengthen and institutionalize crime prevention. Strengthen and institutionalize crime prevention.

45 National Crime Prevention Council The Future Just Changed We can predict but not promise. We can predict but not promise. Prediction helps us think about the future, which helps us prepare for change. Prediction helps us think about the future, which helps us prepare for change. The best advice is to stay alert, stay up-to-date, stay flexible, stay committed – and stay safe! The best advice is to stay alert, stay up-to-date, stay flexible, stay committed – and stay safe!

46 National Crime Prevention Council National Crime Prevention Council 1000 Connecticut Avenue, NW Thirteenth Floor Washington, DC www.ncpc.org


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