1. PRELIMINARY DESIGN REVIEW NPP MICROWAVE SOUNDER-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS (NTCP) OCTOBER 16, PRESENTED BY: ANDREA SCHUMACHER1, MARK DEMARIA2, LIMIN ZHAO3 1. CIRA / COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY 2. NOAA/NESIDS/STAR/RAMMB 3. NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO

2. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Outline
Introduction Demaria
Project Requirements Schumacher
Operations Concept Zhao
Algorithm Theoretical Basis Schumacher
Software Architecture & Interfaces Schumacher
Quality Assurance Zhao
Risks and Actions Demaria
Summary and Conclusions Demaria
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

3. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Introduction
Presented by
Mark Demaria
(STAR/CIRA)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

4. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Introduction
Project Objective
Project Stakeholders
Project Plan
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

5. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
PROJECT OBJECTIVES
Provide TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds from ATMS during the NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation. The products include:
Tropical cyclone maximum wind
Minimum sea level pressure
Radii of 34, 50, 64 kt winds in 4 quadrants relative to the storm center
Balanced horizontal winds from 1000 to 200 mb within 600km of the storm center
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

6. Project Stakeholders – Development Team
STAR and CIRA
Mark DeMaria
Andrea Schumacher
John Knaff
OSPO
Limin Zhao
Hazari Syed
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

7. Project Stakeholders – O & M
OSPO Products Area Lead – Liqun Mao
OSPO QA Lead – Zhaohui Cheng
Operational Implementation and Maintenance Team
Hazari Syed
Jiande Wang
Science Maintenance Team
Mark DeMaria
Andrea schumacher
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

8. Project Stakeholders – Users
National Hurricane Center
Michael Brennan
Jack Beven
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Edward Fukada
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Satellite Analysis Branch
Mike Turk
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

9. Project Plan - Ipt Members
IPT Lead: Mark DeMaria (STAR)
IPT Backup Lead: Limin Zhao (OSPO)
NESDIS Team:
STAR: Mark DeMaria, John Knaff
OSPO: Limin Zhao, Liqun Ma (TC Products PAL)
OSD: Tom Schott
Data Center: Phil Jones
Others: Andrea Schumacher (CIRA), Jiande Wang (SSAI), Hazari Syed (SSAI)
User Team
Lead: Michael Brennan and Jack Beven (NWS/NHC)
Oversight Panel (OP) lead: ICAPOP
Other Ops Involved: Soundings, Precipitation
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

10. PROJECT PLAN - STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT
Development Team
Coding and documentation
Quality assurance
Data verification and validation
Configuration Management
Operation and Maintenance
Code Acceptance
Running system
Interface with operations
Monitoring
Distribution
Users
Supply customer request
Review project development
Archive data
Communicate with development team
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

11. Project Plan - Task and Schedules
Tasks:
Defined in “FY13_NPP_Tropical_Cyclone_Products_v2.ppt” (SPSRB PSDI)
Schedule (key milestones):
Preliminary Design Review – July, 2012  Oct 16, 2012
Critical Design Review – Nov, 2012
Software Review – Feb, 2013
System Readiness Review – July 2013
SPSRB Briefing – Aug 2013
Operations Commence – Aug 2013
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

12. Project Requirements Presentedby
Andrea Schumacher
(STAR/CIRA)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

13. Project requirements: user request
SPSRB User Request # submitted by NHC
Requesting the current AMSU-based TC intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds be generalized from ATMS during the NPP and JPSS era to support the continuity of operation.
User community
National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) & Dept. of Defense
NWS Offices
Benefit to user
Continuity and potential improvement of TC products that provide guidance to NHC forecasters
NOAA Mission Goal supported
Weather and Water, Commerce and Transportation
Mission priority
Optimal
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

14. Project requirements: Ingest
NCEP GFS analyses and forecasts
MIRS ATMS temperature profile retrievals
Current TC positions and intensities
NHC a-decks and b-decks, available at ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/ and currently being ingested by OSPO
JTWC a-decks and b-decks, currently being ingested by OSPO
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

15. Project requirements: Processing
Product name: ATMS-based TC Products
Accuracy (same or better than current AMSU-based products)
Intensity estimate – MAE of 13.5 kt / 9 hPa
Wind radii estimates – MAE of 32, 18, and 10 nmi for 34-, 50-, and 64-kt radii, respectively
Latency
Available ~ 3 hours after satellite pass
Timeliness
Run frequency: New product generated every 6 hours at synoptic times (0, 6, 12, 18 UTC)
Updated every 2 hours
Run duration: Less than 5 minutes (~30 sec per active TC)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

16. Project requirements: Dissemination
Product Dissemination
NDE/ESPC DDS
Text outputs will be integrated into Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. The data include:
TC intensity estimates
Surface wind radii estimates (R34, R50 and R64)*
2-d balance winds
*Will need to be hosted in real time on ftp site so they can be retrieved and integrated into ATCF
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

17. Project requirements: System
Code development
CIRA/Colorado State and NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO
A. Schumacher and M. DeMaria
Operational implementation
NTCP runs on the ESPC operational environment with only extra requirements for disk storage and computing power
tcfprod/vmtcfpdev (Linux VMWare)
Memory ~ 100 mb
Job Run Time: ~ 30 sec per active TC
~50 GB disk storage
gp5/gp50 (Linux Web server)
~ 1 GB disk storage
DDS (IBM Data Distribution Server)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

18. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Operations Concept
Presented
by Limin Zhao
NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

19. Operations Concept - Overview
Review the concept of operations that the customers/users has documented in the SPSRB user request
Interact with customers/users to produce an initial algorithm/system design that is consistent with their concept of operations
Review the answers to the following questions based on customer/user needs and expectations and production constraints
What is the product?
Why is this product being produced?
How will this product be used?
How should this product be produced (operational scenario)?
The operations concept will be refined by the NTCP IPT, in consultation with customers/users, as the product solution and design are matured through the development phase.
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

20. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
NPP TC Products Users
The product requirements are originated from NWS through the SPSRB user request, and its users include:
National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) & Dept. of Defense
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

21. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
What is the Product?
Tropical Cyclone intensity and structure estimates and mean layer winds from NPP ATMS
Specific Requirements from users
Parameters
Specifications
Environmental parameter
Tropical cyclone maximum wind, minimum sea level pressure, radii of 34, 50, 64 kt winds in 4 quadrants relative to the storm center, balanced horizontal winds from 1000 to 200 mb within 600km of the storm center
Geographical coverage
North Atlatic and Northeast Pacific Tropical cyclone basins
Vertical Resolution
Point values for intensity/radii; mandatory levels for balanced wind
Horizontal resolution
Point values for intensity/radii; 0.2 lat/lon grids for balanced winds
Measurement range
Similar to current AMSU-based products
Measurement precision
Measurement accuracy
Latency
3 hours
Refresh
6 hours
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

22. Why Are The Products Being Produced?
Current operational TC products are available from NOAA-15/16/18
Users need the operational capability for TC products from the NPP/JPSS satellites in supporting the continuity of operation
The products will be produced using the MiRS ATMS temperature retrievals
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

23. How Will The Products Be Used?
The NPP TC products will be used at NHC, JTWC, CPHC and WMO RMSCs for the diagnosis of tropical cyclone including intensity, size and warm/cold core structures
The NPP TC products will be integrated into ATCF for users to access.
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

24. How Should The Products Be Produced? (1/6)
Satellite Data for Product Generation
ATMS-based temperature and moisture profiles from MiRS (netCDF4)
Ancillary Data for Product Generation
ATCF TC positions provided by HRC
GFS Analysis and Forecasts from NCEP
Ancillary Data for Product Validation
Hurricane flight reconnaissance intensities and wind radii (ground truth)
AMSU-derived products
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

25. How Should The Products Be Produced? (2/6)
There will be three distinct environments
Development Environment (CIRA, Linux)
Development and testing of pre-operational codes on Redhat Linux OS
Test environment (ESPC, vmtcfpdev)
Pre-operational code (DAP) received from CIRA will be tested on the designated VMWare Linux machine at ESPC and modified as needed before it is promoted to operation
Operation Environment (ESPC, tcfprod)
Operational DAP will be run to generate the products on the designated VMWare machine at ESPC and the products will be distributed to user through ESPC distribution system (DDS)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

26. How Should The Products Be Produced? (3/6)
Coverage
Global Ocean
Formats
ASCII, netCDF4
Latency
3 hours after satellite pass
Run time ~ 30 seconds per active TC
Resolution
Point values for intensity and radii where storms exist
0.2 lat/lon grid for balanced winds
Products
Tropical cyclone maximum wind
Minimum sea level pressure
Radii of 34, 50, 64 kt winds in 4 quadrants relative to the storm center
Balanced horizontal winds from 1000 to 200 mb within 600km of the storm center
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

27. How Should The Products Be Produced? (4/6)
Production and Delivery Scenarios
ESPC will pull the MiRS SND products from NDE following the existing data access protocol
NTCP will pull the required ancillary data that currently available on the ESPC internal servers
NTCP will collect the satellite inputs and required ancillary data to run the TC algorithm
The product will be generated in ASCII and netCDF formats
The product users will be granted access to the ESPC distribution system through the data access request submission process.
ESPC will handle the distribution of the NPP TC products
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

28. How Should The Products Be Produced? (5/6)
Production Monitoring and Maintenance Scenarios
The product process will be monitored by ESPC and alerts will be generated when an error occurs
The NPP TC algorithm will provide overall quality control flags and quality summary level information
ESPC will cover the monitoring of input data latency, product latency, and product distribution
Offline Statistic comparison with NHC best track intensity and radii estimates for cases within 3 hrs of aircraft fix
The TC PAL and maintenance personnel at OSPO will monitor the product quality and will coordinate with the STAR/CIRA scientists for any product quality issues
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

29. How Should The Products Be Produced? (6/6)
Production Archival Scenarios
The TC intensity/structure products will be provided to NHC as a text bulletin in Automated Tropical Cyclone Format (ATCF) and will be archived there (same as current AMSU products).
TC balanced winds products will be archived at NCDC, and a Data Submission Agreement will be developed and submitted to NCDC/CLASS for it.
Local archive requires to keep three day worth of data for real-time use
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

30. Algorithm Theoretical Basis Presented by
Andrea Schumacher
(STAR/CIRA)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

31. algorithm overview: Science description
ATMS-based TC products will be based on AMSU-based algorithm already in operations at NCEP
Intensity estimates (operational since 2003)
Uses combination of AMSU-based soundings, the hydrostatic relationship, and statistics
Described in
Demuth, J., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Improvement of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Estimation Algorithms, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45,
Demuth, J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2004: Validation of an advanced microwave sounder unit (AMSU) tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithm, J. App. Met., 43,
Wind radii estimates (operational since 2005)
Estimated from 2-D winds created by AMSU-derived height field and solving non-linear balance equations
Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Tropical cyclone wind retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit: Application to Surface Wind Analysis. J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim., 45,
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

32. algorithm overview: Science maturity
NOAA-15/16/18 AMSU-based balanced wind algorithms have been running operationally since Algorithm and validation details are provided in:
Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Tropical cyclone wind retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit: Application to Surface Wind Analysis. J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim., 45,
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

33. Algorithm overview - benefits
Algorithm updates
Use of operational MIRS sounding products
Replaces Goldberg/Barnett statistical retrievals
Will eliminate duplication of efforts in generating retrievals
Current Cal/Val project at CIRA has being evaluated impacts of this change
Goal is that increased resolution of ATMS (vs. AMSU) will provide more accurate estimates of TC intensity and structure
Adding another source of polar orbiting satellite microwave-based TC intensity and structure estimates will complement the existing AMSU-based products to improve the overall latency and availability of the NESDIS microwave-based TC products suite.
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

34. algorithm overview: preliminary validation plan
Compare ATMS-derived intensity estimates and wind radii to
AMSU-derived products
Hurricane flight reconnaissance intensities and wind radii (ground truth)
ATMS-based products expected to exceed current AMSU-based products
Improved horizontal resolution
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

35. Software Architecture & Interfaces Presentedby
Andrea Schumacher
(STAR/CIRA)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

36. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
System design
Languages and tools
Fortran 90 (pgf90, ifort or g95 compilers)
Bash, Perl, and Python (version 2.7 or higher) shell scripts
Gnuplot
GrADS
HTML
Java /JavaScripts
Source of codes
CIRA/CSU (most written in-house following the SPSRB F90 guidelines)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

37. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
SYSTEM DESIGN (CONT…)
Directory Structure
Use standard OPS directory structure
/bin
Contains compiled executables
/data
Contains input and output data files
/logs
Contains all log files
/scripts
Contains all script files
/setup
Contains configuration and setup files
/src
Contains all source code
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

38. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
SYSTEM DESIGN (CONT…)
Input data and formats
NCEP GFS analysis (packed ASCII, 1-degree grid)
MIRS ATMS vertical temperature and moisture profiles (netCDF4)
TC positions and intensities (text a-deck and b-deck files)
Ancillary data and auxiliary files
Statistical algorithm coefficient data files (text)
Output files and format
TC intensity and radii (text)
Balanced wind (netCDf4)
Run schedules
New runs every 6 hours at synoptic times
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

39. IT System Architecture, Data Flow, Security
DDS
Dissemination
NHC
Input Data Includes: MIRS ATMS temperature profile retrievals, ATCF TC positions, GFS analyses
Internet
OSPO
Online QC
Monitoring
ESPC IT Environment
CLASS/NCDC
Archive TC
“CIRA Linux Server”
NTCP
“Production ”
“System Test”
NCEP GFS
NPP ATMS TC Products
NTCP “Development”
ATMS TC products
MiRS ATMS
SND Products
DAP delivery
NDE
“DDS”
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products 39 39

40. NTCP Software Flow Diagram
MIRS ATMS sounding
(netCDF)
GFS Analysis
(grib)
Python script
Perl script + Fortran
Sounding Retrieval
(ASCII)
ATCF TC Positions
(text)
GFS Analysis
(PACK ASCII)
Vertical and Horizontal Integrations
(Fortran)
Statistical Analysis (Fortran)
Quality Control
(Fortran)
Bias Correction
(Fortran)
Outputs (ASCII)
2D azimuthal mean radial/hgt cross sections (.RZA)
Balanced 2-D wind field (.XYA)
Outputs (ASCII)
TC Intensity and wind radii estimates (.FIX)
ATCF fix data (.AFX)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products 40 40

41. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Input / output files
File name
Format
Description
Size (max)
G000{YY}_X/Y{MMDD}_PACK.DAT
Packed ASCII, input
1-degree GFS analysis data file
9 MB
{swath/satellite ID}.nc
NetCDF4, input
MIRS retrieval data file
5 MB
aal{storm number}{YYYY}.dat
ASCII text, input
Official positions and intensities of current active global TCs
10 MB per active TC
{stormid}_{date}_{satellite}.FIX
ASCII text, main output
Swath used, intensity and wind radii estimates
1.4 kB
{stormid}_{date}_{satellite}.AFX
ATCF fix file (i.e., intensity and wind radii estimate in ATCF format)
< 1 kB
{stormid}_{date}_{satellite}.RZA
ASCII text, intermediate/output
Azimuthal mean radial/height cross sections (p, ρ, T, gradient wind)
20 MB
{stormid}_{date}_{satellite}.XYA
2-D balance U, V, T, and Z data
3.0 MB
{stormid}_{date}_{satellite}.STA
ASCII text, intermediate
Analysis statistics
1.1 kB
{stormid}_{date}_{satellite}.ret
MIRS retrieval data rewritten in simple ASCII format
{stormid}_{date}_{satellite}.LOC
Swath lat/lon data
200 kB
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Total < 1 Gb

42. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Quality Assurance
Presented
by Limin Zhao
NOAA/NESDIS/OSPO
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

43. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
QA Review
QA Purpose
Problem Prevention
Early Error Detection
Risk Identification and Mitigation
QA Activities
SPSRB Processes
Configuration Management
Project Monitoring
System Monitoring
Product Performance Monitoring
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

44. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
SPSRB Process
Review Processes
PDR
CDR
Software Code Review
Operational System Readiness Review
Documentations
Algorithm Theoretical Basis
End User Manual
Systems Maintenance Manual
Archive Data Submission Agreement
ESPC Monitoring Procedures
Documentation/Standards
OSPO Code Standards
SPSRB Documentation Templates
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

45. Configuration Management
CM Tool (CVS)
CM Stakeholders
Dorothy Brown
CM Lead
Zhaohui Cheng
QA Lead
Joseph McIlvenny
CM Administrator
Ed Ladd, Russ Lancaster
CM installation
NTCP Team Developers
CM Users
The ESPC CM Procedures will be enforced
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

46. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Project Monitoring
Regular Team meeting to discuss the project status
Identify and track the issues and risks throughout the lifecycle
Provides managements with objective feedback regarding process compliance to approved plans, procedures, standards, and analyses
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

47. QA – PRODUCT MONITORING
Error tracking
Intensity & wind radii estimates will be added to ATCF system
Can be routinely compared with similar estimates from other platforms
Can be done by STAR/RAMMB, in coordination with SAB
Real-time monitoring/feedback obtained from NHC
Nonlinear balance winds are input to the Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis system
Operational at NESDIS
Includes automated input quality control that can be leveraged to routinely monitor the nonlinear balance winds
Near-real-time monitoring
24 x monitoring by ESPC help desk
Monitor product log files each run cycle
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

48. QA - science monitoring
Annual verification will be performed by STAR / CIRA
CIRA will work with NHC to perform seasonal verifications based on best track wind intensities and aircraft measured pressures
Verification statistics computed as compared to ATCF intensity and wind radii diagnoses
Annual updates will be performed by STAR / CIRA
Bug fixes, updates to algorithm coefficients as needed
STAR / CIRA to provide near-real-time science support
E.g., answering algorithm-related questions, trouble-shooting
As needed during normal business hours (M-F, 8-5pm MST)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

49. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
QA Summary
QA activities will be performed throughout the software development life cycle.
Code development and documentation will follow the guidelines/standards of SPSRB.
The QA process assures faster and more efficient research to operation transitions.
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

50. Risks and Actions NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Presented by Mark Demaria
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

51. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Risks and Actions
PDR Risk 1: MiRS retrieval limitations may cause product degradations
Risk Assessment: Preliminary validation of AMSU MiRS data show temperature/moisture retrievals don’t always converge near storm center
Impact: If too many soundings are not available near the storm center, product accuracy will be degraded
Likelihood: It is likely that some ATMS MiRS retrievals will be missing near the storm center. The impact on the product is unknown. Based on AMSU results, the most likely outcome is that the MiRS retrievals will provide tropical cyclone products of comparable accuracy to the current version with statistical retrievals.
Mitigation:
Work with MIRS development team to improve MiRS retrieval in cloudy regions if necessary
Status: Open
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

52. Summary and Conclusions
Presented
by Mark Demaria
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

53. Review Objectives Have Been Addressed
Project Plan has been reviewed
Operations concept has been reviewed
Project requirements have been reviewed
Algorithm theoretical basis has been reviewed
Software system architecture and interfaces have been reviewed
Plans for quality assurance have been reviewed
Open Risks and Actions have been reviewed
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

54. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Next Steps
Code Development Phase
Code development
Test data generation
Unit tests
Prepare documentation
Critical Design Review (Dec, 2012)
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products

55. Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products
Open Discussion
The review is now open for free discussion
Preliminary Design Review: NPP Microwave-based TC Products