1. Spatio-temporal Exploration of Paleo Fire Climate Patterns Using the
Superposed Epoch Analysis (S.E.A.) Capstone Project Proposal, PSU MGIS
Author: Wendy Gross, Advisor: Dr. Alan Taylor

2. Conclusions and Anticipated Results
Proposal Outline
Background
Goals and Objectives
Proposed Methodology
Project Timeline
Conclusions and Anticipated Results 1

3. Paleoclimatology and Paleoclimate Proxies
the study of climate prior to the widespread availability of instrumental climate records
Paleoclimate Proxies:
natural recorders of the environment
used to yield quantitative reconstructions of past climate
tree-rings are used as a proxy to study precipitation and temperature
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project
Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
Increment Borer
Wide ring indicating Wet Year
Narrow Ring indicating Dry Year
Bark
Fire Scar
Dry Years
Pith (Seedling)
Core Extracted from a tree via an Increment Borer 2

4. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
Has Been Reconstructed from Tree-ring Data (for 0 A.D. to 2000 A.D.)
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
Each 2.5x2.5 degree grid cell has a time series of PDSI values associated with it
Palmer Drought Severity Index Values for 1851 3
Extremely Dry PDSI Neutral PDSI Extremely Wet PDSI

5. Paleoenvironmental Proxies
Fire Scars in the annual growth rings of trees are a paleoenvironmental proxy that allows us to determine when a fire event happened – called the fire event year
Paleoclimate proxies can be linked to paleoenvironmental proxies to gain an understanding as to how climate effects ecosystem processes
Linking PDSI drought data to fire event years to gain an understanding of how drought affects fire ,
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project
Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
Fire-scarred cross
section from a ponderosa pine
(photo © P.M.Brown)
Fire-scar
data sites (NOAA/Paleo) 4

6. Superposed Epoch Analysis (S.E.A.) Basic Definition and Inputs
S.E.A. is a statistical technique that can be used to analyze the relationship between :
proxy-base climatic phenomena (for example drought), and
environmental events such as Fire Event Years
Inputs to the S.E.A technique:
A time series, and the start and end dates over which the analysis is to take place For this project - a PDSI time series for one grid cell
(2) A list of event dates that are within the start and end dates of the time series used as input For this project - Fire Event Years derived from fire scar sites 5

7. The Superposed Epoch Analysis “Window” (“Epoch”)
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Conclusions
Anticipated
Results
( not to scale )
Yr -4 (lag -4)
Yr -3 (lag -3)
Yr- 2 (lag -2)
Yr -1 (lag -1)
Event Year (Year Zero)
Yr 1 (lag 1)
Yr 2 (lag 2)
S.E.A. “Window” 6

8. Computations (Averaging) Performed by the S.E.A.
Yr 2 (lag 2)
Yr 1 (lag 1)
Yr -1 (lag -1)
Yr- 2 (lag -2)
Yr -3 (lag -3)
Yr -4 (lag -4)
Event Year (Year Zero)
S.E.A. “Windows”
Avg
Avg
Avg
Avg
Avg
Avg
Avg
Results
Yr 2 (lag 2)
Yr 1 (lag 1)
Yr -1 (lag -1)
Yr- 2 (lag -2)
Yr -3 (lag -3)
Yr -4 (lag -4)
Event Year (Year Zero)
Legend: PDSI Values 7
Extremely Dry PDSI Neutral PDSI Extremely Wet PDSI

9. Goals and Objectives Goals - enhance the understanding of:
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project
Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
Goals - enhance the understanding of:
spatio-temporal variability in fire and climate interaction
the mechanisms that drive fire and climate interaction
Objectives - develop a web-mapping tool that provides a spatially explicit representation of the S.E.A. technique results. This will:
help researchers to spatially resolve the temporal patterns of fire and climate they are identifying in their analysis
allow researchers to relate the spatial inference to the spatial footprint of different climatic mechanisms 8

10. Work to Date – Pilot Project “Verification of Concept”
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project
Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
Pilot Project Goal: Verify that through a spatial representation of the S.E.A.
technique results, I can reproduce published findings
Research questions had to do with the relationship of fire event years to drought and El Niño-Southern Oscillation
One of the primary questions addressed :
“Scientific research has found that in times prior to anthropogenic influence in the Southwestern United States, there were wet years prior to Major Southwestern Fire Event Years, and dry conditions during the actual Fire Event Years.” *
* Barton Et al, 2001; Grissino-Mayer, 2000; Swetnam and Betancourt, 1989 9

11. Pilot Project – Southwest Study Area Depicting the PDSI Grid Cells and Fire Scar Sites
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project
Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results 10

12. Southwest Fire Event Years Selected
Pilot Project
Southwest Fire Event Years Selected
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project
Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
1850
A total of 17 years were selected. Selected years are shown with
yellow markers, and have at least 10% of trees scared. 11

13. Pilot Project - S.E.A. Results for Lags before/during/after
Major Fire Events that Occurred in the Southwest
Year -2
Year -1
Year Zero
Year 1
Year 2
Extremely Dry PDSI | Extremely Wet PDSI
Neutral PDSI from to +0.5
PDSI SEA Results for Grid Cell 104 of Southwest Study Area
Southwest Study Area
Grid
Cell
104 12

14. Methodologies for Enhancing Scientific Discovery
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project
Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
Scientific discovery can be promoted by automation of computations, as well as interactive and dynamic visualization, and exploration of analysis results* • software web-mapping software tool proposed will perform :
(1) automation of computations of the S.E.A. technique for every grid cell of
the gridded dataset used as input
(2) creation of a full complement of interactive, and dynamic maps,
in addition to graphs that depict the patterns realized for every lag
• significance of the results will be provided through graphical visualization of the certainty levels
* Symanzik, 2007, Rubel, 2010 13

15. Potential Geospatial Information Systems and Technologies (GIST)
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project
Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
Web-mapping:
ESRI’s ArcGIS geospatial web services (server-side)
ESRI’s ArcGIS Javascript Interface (client-side)
Automation of the S.E.A. computations and Geoprocessing:
PostreSQL/PostGIS RDBMS (server-side)
PHP programming language (server-side)
User Interface and Graphs:
ExtJS Javascript Library, Sencha.com (client-side) 14

16. Project Timeline
Pilot Project/Verificaiton of Concept (Term Project, MGIS/GEOG 586, Geospatial Analysis, and beyond …)
Winter/Spring, 2010 and Winter, 2011
Project Proposal and Presentation
Winter/Spring, 2011
Research and prototype of GIST tools for development of web-mapping tools
Spring/Summer, 2011
Define use cases for web-mapping tool, and research geo-visualization techniques
Develop Software tool, and finish MGIS coursework
Summer /Fall/Winter,
Create presentation for professional conference
Spring/Summer/Fall, 2012
Present software tool at professional conference
Possibilities: American Association of Geographers Conference
NYC, Feb, Tree-Ring Society Conference
University of Arizona, Sep, 2011 Association of Fire Ecologist Intl. Conference
Portland, Oregon, Dec, 2012
Publish report on software tool
Winter/Spring, 2012
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project
Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results
* Note: Dates will be adjusted, based on the conference that I present at, and the status of software development. 15

17. Summary, Conclusions and Anticipated Results
A spatial representation of Superposed Epoch Analysis results will
help paleo fire researchers to spatially resolve the temporal patterns
they are seeing. This will enhance researchers’ understanding of :
spatial variability in fire climate interaction
the climate mechanisms that drive fire climate interaction
The proposed web-mapping tool will facilitate this spatial representation of the S.E.A. results, as well as enhance visualization and exploration of the results through:
the spatial representation of the S.E.A. results for all grid cells of gridded datasets via the automation of computations and creation of interactive and dynamic maps and graphs for every lag
interfacing with the FHEvent Software tool for assessment and visualization of confidence intervals
Background
Goals and
Objectives
Proposed
Methodology
Project
Timeline
Conclusions
and Anticipated
Results 16

18. Acknowledgements
I am most grateful for the guidance and support of my Advisor:
Professor Alan Taylor, PSU 17

19. Spatio-temporal Exploration of Paleo Fire Climate Patterns Using the Superposed Epoch Analysis (S.E.A.)
Questions ? 18