1. MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE – CHANGES MADE IN A SPECIES SPECIFIC MODELING SYSTEM Jim Chew, Kirk Moeller, Kirsten Ironside Invited presentation at 9 th Biennial Conference of Research on the Colorado Plateau Oct 29 - Nov 1, 2007 Flagstaff, Arizona

2. MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE – CHANGES MADE BEING MADE IN A SPECIES SPECIFIC MODELING SYSTEM Jim Chew, Kirk Moeller, Kirsten Ironside

3. The species specific modeling system is: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/missoula/4151/SIMPPLLE/

4. SIMPPLLE is designed to:  Be a management tool  Provide user access to “system knowledge”  Work on computers that managers and stakeholders have  Integrate knowledge from research, models and expert opinion  Let a user make choices to fit the tool to specific issues

5. Current version of SIMPPLLE – utilizes a simplified climate variable

6. Only choices available for a time step

7.  Bark beetles and drought in Southern California  Spruce bark beetle and warming in SC Alaska  Cheatgrass and wildfire interaction in Mesa Verde Park Current version of SIMPPLLE – utilizes a simplified climate variable that has been used to address:

8. Two studies that are contributing to the changes in SIMPPLLE:  Regional Dynamic Vegetation Model for the Colorado Plateau: A Species-Specific Approach  The FRAME Project – A Collaborative Modeling Approach to Natural Resource Management at Mesa Verde National Park

9. Regional Dynamic Vegetation Model for the Colorado Plateau: A Species-Specific Approach Funded by the National Institute for Climatic Change Research (NICCR)

10. Regional Dynamic Vegetation Model for the Colorado Plateau: A Species-Specific Approach Flagstaff 8 million acres +

11. Objectives:  Develop individual species-specific climate models identifying suitable climate space.  Develop an ecosystem model at the landscape scale using the SIMPPLLE framework that simulates ecosystem disturbance processes using species- specific relationships.  Simulate species-specific mortality and migration in response to climate under downscaled GCM scenarios in SIMPPLLE. Regional Dynamic Vegetation Model for the Colorado Plateau: A Species-Specific Approach

12. 1.Include climate input 2.Include the “suitable climate space” for each species 3.For each individual plant community, add a comparison of projected climate variables with the suitable climate space for each species 4. Adjust system knowledge on ecological processes based on this comparison. Four changes in SIMPPLLE that have to be made:

13. SIMPPLLE is designed to provide in one system the interaction between vegetation and other landscape components; land units, aquatic units, and man-made features. Each landscape component is a separate class in SIMPPLLE with spatial relationships and attributes derived from the GIS environment 1. Include climate model output as input

14. The climate is another class. The attributes and spatial relationships to the other classes comes from adding climate as a “feature class” within ESRI’s ArcGIS. Climate layer – feature class

15. Our ArcGIS SIMPPLLE toolbox will have one more layer Add “climate feature class”

16. User interface screen for examining individual vegetation units with links to other types of units

17. Will add the climate unit. Climate Units

18.  An expansion of the “species attributes” already in SIMPPLLE.  Visible to users.  We want the users to be able to identify how significant the difference between the projected climate variables and these values are.  We want the users to think about “thresholds” where differences will start to influence ecological processes. 2. Include the “suitable climate space”

19. Add access to “Suitable Species Space” from the species attributes screen

20. A diagram for each variable precipitation temperature Interactions between temp and precip Degree days Soil moisture CO2 --- other variables

21. Allow for the delineation of “threshold zones”. If the comparison of simulated climate variables to the suitable space variable fall within a “zone” a specific change to system logic will be made.

23. Zone of no adjustments Reduce growth, Increase impact of bark beetles Increase probability of bark beetles, reduce probability of regeneration, increase drought mortality

24. Remember, SIMPPLLE is designed to:  Be a management tool  Provide user access to “system knowledge”  Work on computers that managers and stakeholders have  Integrate knowledge from research, models and expert opinion  Let a user make choices to fit the tool to specific issues

25. This design facilitates:  Be a management tool  Provide user access to “system knowledge”  Work on computers that managers and stakeholders have  Integrate knowledge from research, models and expert opinion  Let a user make choices to fit the tool to specific issues Published in the Proceedings of the Eight Biennial Conference of Research on the Colorado Plateau

26.  Regeneration logic  Successional pathways (growth)  Probability of insect and disease occurrence  Next vegetative state resulting from insects and disease  Changes in fire logic – type of fire, fire spread 4. Adjust system knowledge on ecological processes based on comparison.

27.  Regeneration logic  Successional pathways (growth)  Probability of insect and disease occurrence  Next vegetative state resulting from insects and disease  Changes in fire logic – type of fire, fire spread 4. Adjust system knowledge on ecological processes based on comparison. All of these components have logic screens that can be expanded to include columns for: “climate variable x / zone number y”

28. Regeneration logic

29. Will add columns choices for the combination of “climate value / zone” with a probability value for the regeneration occurring. Users can select the climate values for each type of regeneration and modify the default probability values.

30. Disturbance logic – bark beetles in pinyon pine - juniper

31. Disturbance logic – bark beetles in pinyon pine - juniper Will make the logic rules more species specific and add climate variable columns to adjust the original probability of occurrence.

32. Succession pathways – time is size classes (growth)

33. Time between states – will it increase or decrease?

34. In the default pathways, the occurrence of bark beetles causes enough mortality to drop the density by one canopy cover class. Disturbance pathways – the next state if a process occurs

35. Change in climate variables - additional stress = increased mortality Disturbance pathways – the next state if a process occurs

36. Fire logic – type of fire

37. Replace the original moisture and temperature columns with “climate variable x / zone y” columns

38. Fire logic – fire spread

39. Replace the original moisture and temperature columns with “climate variable x / zone y” columns

40. The FRAME Project – A Collaborative Modeling Approach to Natural Resource Management at Mesa Verde National Park

41. Through USGS partners – continue to build on the design of SIMPPLLE To make the other landscape components dynamic interacting with the vegetation changes

42. Working through the CoLab at Colorado State University

43. To utilize the Object Modeling System

44. To link SIMPPLLE and PRMS

45. Debris-Flow Probability Model Susan Cannon, et al., USGS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP), ARS Aquatic Habitat model To evaluate other models to link with SIMPPLLE

46. MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE – CHANGES MADE BEING MADE IN A SPECIES SPECIFIC MODELING SYSTEM Jim Chew, Kirk Moeller, Kirsten Ironside Invited presentation at 9 th Biennial Conference of Research on the Colorado Plateau Oct 29 - Nov 1, 2007 Flagstaff, Arizona