1. Estimation of Damage and Losses after Disasters Livestock Sub-Sector

2. Disasters and Livestock Domestic animals may die due to the effects of any type of disaster, thus reducing the animal stock of the affected areas. Livestock infrastructure may also sustain destruction (Damage) After a disaster, output of meat, milk, eggs and other livestock by-products may decline due death, illness or stress of the animals, and higher costs may be incurred to provide veterinarian attention, water and feed to the animals (Losses) 12/11/2011RJ2

3. Typical disaster effects Damage Destruction of sector infrastructure Destruction of pasturelands Death of domestic animals Losses Decline in production of meat, milk, cheese, eggs, etcetera Higher costs of production -Provision of veterinarian attention -Higher costs of water and feed Until animal stock recovers through natural growth 12/11/2011RJ3

4. 12/11/2011RJ4 How to estimate damage and losses Damage Determine number of animals that have died due to disaster times (*) Prices paid to farmers under normal conditions plus (+) Value of replacing destroyed infrastructure and pasture Losses Production losses of each by- product due to death or illness of animals times (*) Period required for cattle stock to recover times (*) Unit price paid to farmers for each product plus (+): Cost of animal treatment for diseases, water and animal feed

5. Application to Kenya drought 1.Obtain data on animal stock by type of animal prevailing in 2007 2.For each Province/District, and for years 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, determine –Number of animals that died due to drought –Prices of animals paid to farmers in normal conditions 3. Determine time required for natural replacement of animals of each type 12/11/2011RJ5

6. Application to Kenya drought.. 4. Determine number of animals producing meat, milk, cheese, eggs and other by- products 5. Determine/estimate unit production of above per animal (kg of meat/animal, liters of milk/animal, etcetera) 6. Determine annual or monthly production of each by-product, and average unit prices paid to farmers 12/11/2011RJ6

7. Application to Kenya drought… 7. Determine number of animals that contracted disease 8. Estimate decline (%) in unit production of by-products per animal due to disease 9. Obtain unit costs per animal of –Veterinarian attention –Providing water and feed 10. Determine losses due to early sale of animals, if any 12/11/2011RJ7

8. 12/11/2011RJ8