1. Demographic Trends North Seattle Community College Student Enrollment Management April 16, 2012 John Lederer, Ed.D. Director, Research & Strategic Planning

2. NSCC SEM Meeting| Environmental Scan Seattle Community Colleges  Some College, No Degree Students  Educational Attainment of NSCC Students  Reaching High School Graduates  College Bound Scholarship  Serving Baccalaureate-Seeking Students  Positioning as a Baccalaureate-Granting Institution Presentation Overview

3. NSCC SEM Meeting| Environmental Scan Seattle Community Colleges Some college, No Degree Educational Attainment in Seattle Residents 25 and Over Education LevelPopulation % of Total Population no diploma 31,194 7% High school graduate, GED, or alternative 53,16112% Some college, less than 1 year 20,8505% Some college, 1 or more years, no degree 59,12213% Associate's degree 29,7607% Bachelor's degree 147,26134% Master's degree 62,39314% Professional school degree 21,6575% Doctorate degree 13,9363% Total 439,334100% Source: Census, ACS 2007-2010 There are almost as many adults with some college (no degree) than there are adults who have never been to college. There are more adults over 25 with 1 or more years of college than high school graduates. These adults have been to college and have college credits already racked up. They are “low hanging fruit” for degree completion.

4. NSCC SEM Meeting| Environmental Scan Seattle Community Colleges Educational Attainment by Age Cohort City of Seattle, 2010 Education Attainment by Age Cohort Education Level18-24 Years25-34 Years35-44 Years45-64 Years65 Years and Over Less than 9th grade1.2%1.4%2.4%3.5%9.1% 9th to 12th grade, no diploma6.2%2.5%2.1%4.0%7.2% High school graduate, GED, or alternative18.4%8.4%9.0%12.8%22.2% Some college, no degree44.8%17.2%15.7%20.1%19.5% Associate's degree6.3%7.4%6.9%7.3%4.2% Bachelor's degree22.1%43.3%36.9%29.0%20.4% Graduate or professional degree1.0%19.8%27.0%23.4%17.3% Total100.0% No Degree70.6%29.6%29.2%40.3%58.0% Some Post-Secondary Education74.3%87.7%86.5%79.8%61.5% Associate's Degree or Higher29.4%70.4%70.8%59.7%42.0% Source: Census, 2008-10 ACS In each of the 18-44 age cohorts, there are more residents with some college and no degree than there are residents with a high school diploma or less. About 30% of 25-44 year olds have no college degree. Many of them need one to support their families. Forty percent of older adults age 45-64 have no degree.

5. NSCC SEM Meeting| Environmental Scan Seattle Community Colleges College Enrollment by Age Cohort Seattle Residents Not Enrolled in College by Age, 2010 18 and 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 34 years35 years and over Male1,22111,12851,290151,958 Female81712,83649,424153,915 Total2,03823,964100,714305,873 % of Age Cohort Not Enrolled14%46%61%66% Source: ACS 2007-10 There are 125,000 residents of Seattle between the age of 20 and 34 that are not enrolled in college. That’s 71% of the age cohort. Further analysis on the education attainment levels of the residents not enrolled in college by age, gender, race would help to identify enrollment target groups.

6. NSCC SEM Meeting| Environmental Scan Seattle Community Colleges Prior Education of NSCC Students NSCC has shifted toward serving more students with some college experience or a college degree. Over one-third of NSCC state-funded students already have a degree, as compared to about 13% for the rest of the District. NSCC State-Funded Students Prior Education, Fall 2007 and Fall 2011 Fall Quarter Headcount Prior Education2007% of Total2011% of Total 2007 to 2011 % Change Less than High School4599%3636%-21% High School Graduate1,44027%1,44525%0% Some College, No Degree1,49628%1,69030%13% Associate Degree3496%3707%6% Bachelor's Degree or Above1,65231%1,80432%9% Total (for whom data is available)5,396100%5,672100%5%

7. NSCC SEM Meeting| Environmental Scan Seattle Community Colleges What are NSCC’s Feeder High Schools? NSCC enrolls fewer recent HS graduates than the other two colleges. The Shoreline School District is a substantial contributor to the total. 2009 HS Graduates Enrolled in Seattle District Colleges in the 2009-2010 Academic Year College/Top High SchoolsEnrolled College/Top High SchoolsEnrolled North Seattle-Total239 Seattle Central-Total451 Roosevelt32 Franklin High School53 Nathan Hale31 Garfield High School51 Ballard21 Roosevelt High School29 Shorecrest14 Ingraham High School26 Shorewood12 Bainbridge High School23 Ingraham11 West Seattle High School22 Middle College6 Ballard High School15 Franklin5 Chief Sealth High School14 Garfield5 Rainier Beach High School14 South Seattle-Total285 Seattle Vocational Institute-Total27 West Seattle High School53 Garfield High School6 Chief Sealth High School26 Middle College High School4 Cleveland High School25 Roosevelt High School3 Franklin High School18 Foster Senior High School18 Highline High School12 Arts & Academics Academy11 Source: Vashon Island High School9 ERDC Report on Public High School Graduates Rainier Beach High School8 http://www.erdcdata.wa.gov/

8. NSCC SEM Meeting| Environmental Scan Seattle Community Colleges Where do These Graduates Go to College? NSCC Feeder High School students enroll in college at a higher rate than the rest of the Seattle District high schools. But they are less likely to go to a 2-year college and more likely to attend a 4- year college than the rest of the Seattle District high school graduates. 2009 Graduates of NSCC Feeders Schools Enrolled in College Total Enrolled% GoingPublicPrivate NSCC Feeder High Schoolsin Collegeto College2-year4-year Roosevelt29482.1%34.3%46.1%19.4% Nathan Hale18280.9%40.7%41.7%17.7% Ballard25676.6%45.0%43.2%11.8% Shorecrest24481.9%43.2%37.9%18.9% Shorewood28879.3%44.4%40.8%14.8% Ingraham15876.0%47.6%34.8%17.7% Feeder HS Average 1,42279.7%42.1%41.3%16.6% Remainder of Seattle School District 1,04567.5%52.8%33.4%13.7% Source: ERDC Report on Public High School Graduates http://www.erdcdata.wa.gov/

9. NSCC SEM Meeting| Environmental Scan Seattle Community Colleges College Bound Scholars Have a Ticket To Ride College Bound Scholarship recipients have a 4-year college education paid for plus a book stipend. Many college-bound scholars may be place- bound and may not be able to get into a 4-year directly from high school. Others may choose to get an AA degree instead. The numbers of college- bound scholars is increasing. College Bound Graduating Classes ExpectedFranklinGarfield Graduating YearHS 20129188 201311487 2014142121 2015216124 Source: CCER from HECB and OSPI data.

10. NSCC SEM Meeting| Environmental Scan Seattle Community Colleges Higher UW Tuition is a Market Opportunity In the last three years, UW tuition has increased by about 50%. We can market ourselves as a low-cost path to a UW education.

11. NSCC SEM Meeting| Environmental Scan Seattle Community Colleges Positioning as a Baccalaureate-Granting Institution Washington has not increased its Baccalaureate capacity since the 1990’s with the creation of the branch campuses. The state ranks 40 th out of 50 states and DC in the production of baccalaureate degrees per 1,000 population (HECB, Key Facts). University Centers and BAS degrees are great ways to reposition a community college as a baccalaureate-granting institution. Community colleges are in the unique position to reach place-bound students, first-generation students, and economically disadvantaged students. NSCC has a head start because it has so many BA degree holders on campus as students, and it has strong transfer education capacity.