1. GLOBIOM Methodology and implementation
P. Havlík, M. Herrero, H. Valin, M. Obersteiner
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya
Agrimonde-Terra: Animal Productions. Food and feed future demand. CIRAD Paris, February 13, 2013

2. Outline Model overview Livestock sector modelling Scenarios (SSPs)
Results
5. Conclusions

3. 1. Model overview

4. GLOBIOM: Global Biosphere Management Model
Partial equilibrium model: Agriculture, Forestry, Bioenergy
DEMAND
SUPPLY

5. GLOBIOM Supply functions Demand functions
Spatial equilibrium model a la Takayama & Judge
Maximization of the social welfare (PS + CS)
Recursively dynamic (10 year periods)
Supply functions
implicit – based on spatially explicit Leontief production functions:
production system 1 (grass based)  productivity 1 + constant cost 1
production system 2 (mixed)  productivity 2 + constant cost 2
Demand functions
explicit: linearized non-linear functions

6. Supply Chains Natural Forests Managed Forests Short Rotation Tree
Plantations
Cropland
Grassland
Other natural land
Bioenergy
Bioethanol
Biodiesel
Methanol
Heat
Electricity
Biogas
Wood products
Sawn wood
Pulp
Livestock products
Beef
Lamb
Pork
Poultry
Eggs
Milk
Crops
Corn
Wheat
Cassava
Potatoes
Rapeseed
etc…
LAND USE CHANGE
Wood Processing
Bioenergy Processing
Livestock Feeding

7. Main exogenous drivers:
Population
GDP
Technological change
Bio-energy demand (POLES team)
Diets (FAO, 2006)
Output: Production Q
- land use (change)
- water use
- GHG,
- other environment (nutrient cycle, biodiversity,…)
Consumption Q
Prices
Trade flows

8. Spatial resolution
Homogeneous response units (HRU) – clusters of 5 arcmin pixels
Source: Skalský et al. (2008)

9. Spatial resolution Simulation Units (SimU) = HRU & PX30 & Country zone
Source: Skalský et al. (2008)

10. Crops - EPIC Processes Major outputs:
Weather
Hydrology
Erosion
Carbon sequestration
Crop growth
Crop rotations
Fertilization
Tillage
Irrigation
Drainage
Pesticide
Grazing
Manure
Major outputs:
Crop yields, Environmental effects (e.g. soil carbon, nitrogen leaching)
20 crops (>75% of harvested area)
4 management systems: High input, Low input, Irrigated, Subsistence

11. Crops - EPIC Relative Difference in Means (2050/2100) in Wheat Yields
[Data: Tyndall, Afi Scenario, simulation model: EPIC]

12. Grasslands – CENTURY/EPIC
Source: EPIC model
(t/ha DM)

13. Forests – G4M
Downscaling FAO country level information and forest growth
functions estimated from yield tables
Source: Kindermann et al. (2008)

14. 2. Livestock in GLOBIOM

15. Gridded Livestock of the World – Robinson et al. (2011)

16. Livestock production systems distribution
Sere and Steinfeld (1996) classification updated by Robinson et al. (2011)

17. Livestock sector coverage
Livestock categories:
Bovines: Dairy & Other
Sheep & Goats: Dairy & Other
Poultry: Laying hens, Broilers, Mixed
Pigs
Production systems:
Ruminats
Grass based: Arid, Humid, Temperate/Highlands
Mixed crop-livestock: Arid, Humid, Temperate/Highlands
Monogastrics
Smallholders
Industrial

18. Production systems parameterization
Herrero, Havlík et al. forthcoming

19. Production systems parameters
Livestock numbers
1000TLU
Productivity
kg/tlu/y
FEED
GHG emissions
GRAZING
kgDM/tlu/y
Manure
STOVER
N_Excretion
OCCASIONAL
Entferm_CH4
kgCO2eq/tlu/y
GRAINS
ManmgtTot_CH4
Barl
ManmgtTot_N2O
Corn
MansolTot_N2O
Puls
ManaplTot_N2O
Rice
ManprpTot_N2O
SgMi
Soya
Whea
CerO
OlsO
CrpO
Anim
Herrero, Havlík et al. forthcoming

20. Feed intensity of milk production
Herrero, Havlik et al
(forthcoming)

21. Non-CO2 intensity of milk production
Herrero, Havlik et al
(forthcoming)

22. 3. Scenarios

23. IAM & IAV (“IPCC”)scenarios matrix approach
SSPs x RCPs

24. 5 SSPs along 2 dimensions

25. Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs).
(O’Neil, 2012)

26. World population

27. World GDP per capita

28. Semi-quantitative elements: Land use and Agriculture

29. Crop yield development

30. Projected feed conversion efficiencies
[kg protein product / kg protein feed]

31. Human diet preferences [kcal/cap/day]

32. Losses and wastes development in the Oilseeds&Pulses sector [%]

33. 4. Results

34. Consumption per capita – Ruminant meat – World [kg/cap/y]

35. Consumption per capita – Monogastric meat – World [kg/cap/y]

36. Consumption per capita – Dairy – World [kg/cap/y]

37. Animal calorie consumption in 2050 [kcal/cap/day]

38. Production – Ruminant meat – World [000 tonnes]

39. Production – Monogastric meat – World [000 tonnes]

40. Production – Dairy – World [000 tonnes]

41. Feed – Coarse grains – World [000 tonnes]

42. Production – Coarse grains – World [000 tonnes]

43. Area – Coarse grains – World [mio ha]

44. Commodity price index

45. Bovine meat exports [000 tonnes]

46. Bovine meat imports [000 tonnes]

47. Bovine meat production by system [000 tonnes]

48. Average crop yield change over 2000-2050 [%]

49. Additional nitrogen consumption compared to 2000 [%]

50. Additional irrigation water consumption compared to 2000 [%]

51. Cropland expansion 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]

52. Grassland expansion 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]

53. Net forest area change 2000-2050 [Mio Ha]

54. Greenhouse gas emissions - World [Mio tonnes CO2eq]

55. 5. Conclusions

56. Further reading AnimalChange deliverables Journal articles
D2.1. Storylines for livestock sector scenarios in EU, studied SICA regions and global level, consistent with the IPCC AR5 detailed for the livestock sector
D2.2. Preliminary scenarios of the developments in agricultural commodity markets, livestock production systems, and land use and land cover
Journal articles
Havlík, P., Valin, H., Mosnier, A., Obersteiner, M., Baker, J. S., Herrero, M., Rufino, M. C. & Schmid, E. (2013). Crop Productivity and the Global Livestock Sector: Implications for Land Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 95 (2), 442—448.
Valin, H., Havlík, P., Mosnier, A., Herrero, M., Schmid E. and Obersteiner M. Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security? Environmental Research Letters, under review.

57. Thank you !