1. Exercise II Dirk Hollnack

2. How can we assess the expected loss? Risk = Function Hazard Vulnerability Exposed values

3. Example Scenario Earthquake

4. X X X X 45,000 Examplary ! Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario

5. Liability Zones Capital 4 2 1 10 7 9 8 6 5 3 Examplary ! Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario

6. Scenarios Capital 4 2 1 10 7 9 8 6 5 3 I = VI I = VII I = VIII I = IX Examplary ! Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario

7. Loss Ratios in % of Sum insured IntensityBuildingContentLoPTotal VI0.30.40.20.3 VII221.51.9 VIII75107 IX15124018 Examplary ! Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario

8. Exercise II Results Dirk Hollnack

9. Scenario North IntensityAffected AreasLiabilities VI30 % - 70 % Zone 2 + 50% - 70 % Zone 4 98 000 – 208 000 VII10 % - 20 % Zone 225 000 – 50 000 VIII00 Examplary ! Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario

10. Scenario South Intensity Affected Areas Liabilities VI(10%-20% Zone 9) + (10% Zone 8) +(10% Zone 7) + (40% - 50% Zone 10) 8 100 -12 100 VII(10% Zone 8)+ (20% - 30% Zone 10) + (40% - 20% Zone 9) 11 700 -19 600 VIII(30% - 40% Zone 9) + (10% - 20% Zone 10) 14 000 - 19 000 IX(10% - 30 % Zone 9)4 500 - 13 500 Examplary ! Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario

11. Losses Scenario North Optimistic: 0.3% * 98 000 + 1.9% * 25 000 = 769 Conservative: 0.3% * 208 000 + 1.9% * 50 000 = 1574 Examplary ! Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario

12. Losses Scenario South Optimistic: 0.3% * 12 100 + 1.9% * 19600 + 7% * 14 000 +18% * 4500 = 2 199 Conservative: 0.3% * 8 100 + 1.9% * 11 700 + 7% * 19 000 + 18 % * 13 500 = 4 007 Examplary ! Workshop – Beispiel Kumulszenario