1. Characteristics of Evidence-Based Predictors of Post-School Success
Lauren K. Bethune & David W. Test
National Secondary Transition Technical Assistance Center & UNC Charlotte
Reaching the Summit Conference, Greensboro, NC, September 16, 2014

2. Session will provide participants with:
Learning Outcomes
Session will provide participants with:
knowledge and information about NSTTAC’s evidence-based predictors of post-school success
knowledge of a process to evaluate existing programs
(at the student, school, and district level) to determine alignment with predictors of post-school success 2

3. Critical Interrelationships for Achieving PSO
Quality IEPs
(Indicator 13)
Staying in School
(Indicator 2)
Positive Post-School Outcomes
(Indicator 14)
Graduating
(Indicator 1) 3

4. Good Planning 4/21/2017 Materials: Notes:
A simple logic model illustrates the process by which change (i.e., post-school outcomes) is expected to occur and the connection a particular Improvement Activity has to producing this change (NECTAC & RRC Program, 2009). This visual depiction shows how inputs connect to outputs, which lead to outcomes.
   Inputs refer to the resources available or needed to implement a program. Resources can include human, financial, organizational, and community resources available to devote to the preparation of youth with disabilities for life after high school (Kellogg Foundation, 2004). For example, resources can include fiscal resources, personnel time, or interagency agreements with adult agencies, local employers, or institutes of higher education. Outputs refer to what the program does with the resources (Kellogg Foundation, 2004); it is the product that results from the inputs. Outputs include the tools, events, and actions that are a part of program implementation. For state departments of education, Improvement Activities included in the SPP/APR are outputs. Outcomes refer to what happens as a result of implementing the outputs (i.e., the activity, or using a tool). Outcomes, whether intended, unintended, or desired are the results of a program (Kellogg Foundation, 2004). Outcomes can be described as short-term (i.e., changes in awareness, knowledge, and skills), intermediate (i.e., changes in action, behavior, decision-making, or policy), and long-term (i.e., changes in social, economic, civic, or environmental conditions). For example a state may seek to increase teachers’ knowledge of evidence-based practices for employment (short-term) in order to increase the number of teachers who implement evidence-based practices (EBP) for employment (intermediate), which will ultimately improve the post-school employment rates of youth with disabilities (long-term). Figure 3 visually depicts this example. 4

5. Data-Based Decision Making
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Data-Based Decision Making
School
State
District
Actionable Data
Types of Data
Input
Process
Outcomes
Satisfaction
Information
Types of Decisions to Drive Program Improvement
Address students’ needs (e.g., access to transition programs, and skill development) relative to youths’ post-school success
Prioritize student needs to improve post-school success
Set and assess progress toward goals in targeted action plan
Develop targeted action plan for implementation
Identify/reallocate resources in reaction to youths’ post-school success
Enhance processes to improve outcomes
Evaluate effectiveness of targeted action plan
Assess whether student needs are being met
Materials:
Alverson & Rowe (2012)
Notes: This framework for data-based decision making shows how DBDM fits within the context of the school, district, and state. It reflects the different types of data to be used, how those data lead to information and actionable data, and the types of decisions that can be made based on these data. The types of data are defined as:
input data (e.g., student population demographics): student demographic data, specifically (a) disability category, (b) race/ethnicity, (c) sex, and (d) method of exit.
process data (e.g., instructional quality): the quality transition focused IEP data, based on compliance elements of Indicator 13
outcome data (e.g., achievement scores): post-school engagement outcomes of enrollment in postsecondary education and employment.
satisfaction data (e.g., teacher): seek to measure the extent to which former students feel they were prepared for life after high school, or how happy they were with the services received during high school. 5

6. Do you know your students’ outcomes?
Graduation rate?
Dropout rate?
Employment rate?
Enrollment rate?
How many females are full time?
How many students in the year old program are working 1 year out of high school?
How many students enrolled in post-secondary completed a term?

7. Preparing for an Informed Conversation
How is your State and local District using Secondary Transition Data (i.e., Indicators 1, 2, 13, & 14) for decision-making, accountability, and transition program improvement?
Read your State’s SPP and APR, specifically the sections for Indicators 1, 2, 13, & 14
Contact your State Transition Coordinator to get your Secondary Transition Data for use with your district
Who in your district organizes the data for the State?
Is your school in the data set? How would it compare if it were?
Informed conversation has to go beyond the school level….to stakeholder groups that allow all stakeholders to participate in the decision-making process

8. Data-Based Decision Making
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Data-Based Decision Making
How does your students’ data compare to other districts/ schools?
What patterns can be seen in the data when looking at type of disability, gender, high school exit, and race/ethnicity?
Are there youth who are engaged after high school at higher rates? What do you think contributes to the higher rates in this area?
What evidence-based predictors should be reflected in your students’ IEPs that may encourage better outcomes?
Walk through these questions under the hypothesis that you could try and do this a school, as well.

9. What can you/your organization do to increase the likelihood of youth being engaged (i.e., obtaining competitive employment or higher education) after high school?
Materials:
Notes:

10. Start with What you Know is the Best Available Evidence
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Start with What you Know is the Best Available Evidence
Notes: While the evidence-based practices were designed to teach students specific transition-related skills, to date, the experimental literature has not attempted to measure the impact of these skills on post-school outcomes. NSTTAC reviewed rigorous correlational research in secondary transition to identify evidence-based predictors that are correlated with improved post-school outcomes in education, employment, and/or independent living. 10

11. What to do ????? Flash Back to 1984 4/21/2017
We didn’t used to have this – Now we do. Take advantage of what we know.
What to do ?????

12. Transition Practices Research
4/21/2017
Transition Practices Research
Practices!
Predictors!
Micro Level
Specific interventions
Macro Level
Systems
Programs
General practices/ skills
This is how we’ve organized what we know.

13. Research to Practice Lesson Plan Starters
What We Have Done
Reviewed experimental research to identify evidence-based practices in secondary transition
Identified 63 evidence-based practices
Developed over 75 Research to Practice Lesson Plan Starters
Taxonomy Category
Evidence-Based
Practices
Research to Practice Lesson Plan Starters
Student Focused Planning 6 9
Student Development 56 98
Family Involvement 1
Program Structure

14. Student Focused-Planning
Teaching Student Knowledge of Transition Planning Using Whose Future Is It Anyway?
Teaching Student Participation in the IEP Meeting:
Using Check and Connect
Using Computer Assisted Instruction
Using the Self-Advocacy Strategy
Using the Self-Directed IEP
Using Published Curricula

15. In-School Predictors by Outcome Area
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In-School Predictors by Outcome Area
Predictor
Indicators
I-1
I-2
I-13
I-14
Education
Employment
Career Awareness X
Community Experiences
Exit Exams/High School Diploma Status
Inclusion in General Education
Interagency Collaboration
Occupational Courses
Paid Employment/Work Experience
Parental Expectations
Parental Involvement
Program of Study
Self-Advocacy/Self-Determination
Self-Care/Independent Living
Social Skills
Student Support
Transition Program
Vocational Education
Work Study
Materials:
Description of PPSs
Facilitators Notes:
See predictor self-assessment for a description of each predictor. 15

20. How can you determine the level of implementation?
Are you implementing predictors of post-school success in your students’ educational programs?
To what extent are you implementing predictors of post-school success for students in your district, school building, or classroom?
How can you determine the level of implementation? 20

22. Predictor Self-Assessment: What it looks like22

23. Using the Self-Assessment, Assess Your Degree of Implementation23

24. Self-Determination Definition
Self-Determination is the ability to make choices, solve problems, set goals, evaluate options, take initiative to reach one’s goals, and accept consequences of one's actions.
Rowe, D. A., Alverson, C. Y., Unruh, D., Fowler, C. H., Kellems, R., & Test, D. W. (2013). Operationalizing evidence-based predictors of post-school success: A Delphi study. Manuscript in revision. 24

25. Self-Determination Program Characteristics
Utilize a student driven IEP process to allow students to demonstrate self-awareness, goal setting, problem solving, and self-advocacy.
Collaborate with general education teachers to embed choices into the general curriculum and daily lessons and provide opportunities for students to practice self-determination skills.
Teach students to self-monitor self-determination skills (e.g., accommodations and modifications) and provide opportunities for students to practice the self-monitoring strategy.
**As you work with students, take into consideration the cultural nuances involved in teaching self-determination skills and providing opportunities to develop self-determination to students from CLD backgrounds.
Ensure all students, including those with significant disabilities, have a functional communication system to engage in choice making, problem-solving, goal setting, taking initiative to reach goals, and accepting consequences for one’s actions. 25

26. Level of Implementation
For each program characteristic, consider your evidence, and decide whether it is:
Not currently being implemented
Intermittent implementation
Emerging implementation
Currently being implemented 26

27. Sample Rating Implementation
Program Characteristic
Rating
Utilize a student driven IEP process to allow students to demonstrate self-awareness, goal setting, problem solving, and self-advocacy. 1
Collaborate with general education teachers to embed choices into the general curriculum and daily lessons and provide opportunities for students to practice self-determination skills. 2
Teach students to self-monitor self-determination skills (e.g., accommodations and modifications) and provide opportunities for students to practice the self-monitoring strategy.
**As you work with students, take into consideration the cultural nuances involved in teaching self-determination skills and providing opportunities to develop self-determination to students from CLD backgrounds. 4 27

28. Types of Evidence Evidence of Implementation:
What evidence do you have to support your decision regarding what degree you are implementing the predictor characteristic?
No evidence
Copies of curricula, copies of training materials, in some IEPs
Referenced in school or district procedures and policies, documented in IEPs
Consistent evidence of implementation and impact (e.g., documented in IEPs, program evaluation data, marketing materials)
Other? 28

29. Sample Rating & Type of Evidence
Program Characteristic
Rating
Type of Evidence
Utilize a student driven IEP process to allow students to demonstrate self-awareness, goal setting, problem solving, and self-advocacy. 1
No evidence
Collaborate with general education teachers to embed choices into the general curriculum and daily lessons and provide opportunities for students to practice self-determination skills. 2
Teacher lesson plans include activities in which students have choices.
Teach students to self-monitor self-determination skills (e.g., accommodations and modifications) and provide opportunities for students to practice the self-monitoring strategy. 4
At the beginning of the school year, students write letters to their teachers describing accommodations needed.
All special education teachers are using the SDLMI to teach students to set goals, and monitor progress toward goals.
All students are administered the AIR self-determination scale each year 29

30. Time for Action What questions do we still have?
4/21/2017
Time for Action
What questions do we still have?
Where do we go from here?
When will we answer the unanswered questions?
Are other additional data needed to answer the unanswered questions?
When will we meet again?
What resources do we need to gather before we meet again?
What are the specific action steps we will take between now and our next meeting?
Who is missing?
Afte the assessment… 30

31. 4/21/2017
Action Planning
How are you going to answer the questions you have identified throughout this session related to improving the outcomes of youth with disabilities you serve?
How do I improve employment outcomes?
What practices am I currently implementing and how can they be improved?
What EBPs need to be implemented to improve the chance of youth obtaining positive outcomes?
What are the specific action steps we will take between now and our next meeting?
What resources do I need?
Who else needs to assist me?
An action plan consists of action steps or changes to be made in your classroom, school, or community to improve outcomes of youth with disabilities.
2. It describes the way you or your group will use its strategies to meet the goals identified to improve post-school outcomes of youth with disabilities.
Each action step or change to be sought should include the following:
What actions or changes will occur?
Who will carry out these changes?
By when they will take place, and for how long?
What resources (e.g., staff, money) are needed to carry out these changes 31

32. Time to Plan!! (macro level)
Engage with the state/district/school stakeholder group.
As a group:
Refer back to data, what area(s) is in most need of improvement?
Prioritize area(s) of need.
Choose one Predictor based on priority area from the predictor self- assessment.
Rate the implementation status for each of the characteristics listed.
Identify which characteristics are not currently being implemented.
Is this a state, district, or school level action?
Think about if state/district/school has the resources to implement the characteristics and the time it will take to get it up and running.
Of these characteristics, choose one to take action on.
Materials:
Notes:

33. Prioritizing Areas of Need
When examining the program characteristics of self- determination/self-advocacy, the following characteristics require action at the school/macro level:
Collaborate with general education teachers to embed choices into the general curriculum and daily lessons and provide opportunities for students to practice self- determination skills
Provide direct instruction in self-determination using a structured curriculum or evidence-based instructional strategy, with guided practice in natural school and community-based settings

34. Time to Plan!! (micro/ student level)
Engage with IEP team/ other teachers/ student.
Prioritize area(s) of need.
Which predictor area needs the most focus (and aligns with resources you may access)?
What evidence-based practices reflect or are relevant to that predictor?
Select one or more to implement within an Annual IEP goal or Transition activity
Get started
Materials:
Notes:

35. Prioritizing Areas of Need
When examining the program characteristics of self-determination/self- advocacy, the following characteristics require action at the student/micro level:
Teach students to self-monitor self-determination skills (e.g., accommodations and modifications) and provide opportunities for students to practice the self-monitoring strategy.
As you work with students, take into consideration the cultural nuances involved in teaching self-determination skills and providing opportunities to develop self-determination to students from CLD backgrounds
Conduct age-appropriate transition assessments in order for students to learn about themselves, set goals, solve problems, use information make decisions, and to identify long-range goals.

36. IEP Team/Student Example
Predictor area: Self-Determination/Self-Advocacy
Evidence-Based Practice: Self-Advocacy Strategy
Post-School Goal: After high school graduation, Jason will attend GTCC and work towards an Associates degree in computer programming.
IEP Goal: To prepare for his postsecondary goal of succeeding at GTCC, by May 2014, Jason will prepare notes for and present his goals at his IEP meeting, based on instruction in the Self Advocacy Strategy.
Transition Activities:
Self-Advocacy Training
Discuss goals & accommodations with gen. ed. teacher
Meet with Disability Services at GTCC

37. Resource Connecting Predictors and Practices
How can you use this?

38. Why take time to develop a plan?
To ensure you do not overlook any details
To understand what is and what is not possible in your classroom, school, or community
For efficiency, to save time, energy, and resources in the long run
For accountability – to increase the chances that people will do what needs to be done to improve the services for youth with disabilities in your classroom, school, and community. 38

39. How to Write an Action Plan
Determine what key people should be involved in planning
Develop an action plan
Steps for remedying the problem should have a direct link to the data analysis.
Any action listed must be specific, observable, and measurable.
Sufficient detail is needed so that it is possible to determine when the action has been implemented.
Review your completed action plan
Follow through
Evaluate your efforts

40. Action Plan Template 1- Goal Area for Improvement Next Steps
3 –Person Responsible
4- Due Date
To increase the number of student-directed IEPs from 0 to 10 students, by March 2014, the school will teach youth in 2 resource classrooms (i.e., 30 youth) how to lead their own IEP meetings using the Self Advocacy Strategy.
Provide professional development to two resources teachers on how to use the Self Advocacy Strategy.
Allow time for teachers to practice using the curriculum until teachers implement with 100% fidelity.
Implement Self-Advocacy Strategy (SAS) in two resource rooms.
Assess student knowledge of strategy using SAS knowledge battery.
Allow students to practice directing their IEP meetings in simulated environment.
Have students direct IEP meetings.
District Administrators
SPED teachers
Students
March 2014
Materials:
Action Planning Worksheet
Notes:
The action plan template shown above is a combination of the two templates found on page of the DUT District Facilitator Guide. After you have reviewed your post-school outcomes data, the taxonomy self-assessment data and additional data as you feel necessary. Choose a taxonomy area in which to focus your efforts. Note: your final action plan will only contain one taxonomy area. The table above is for illustration purposes only.
Complete the following steps:
Column 1 – What is your goal? What do you want to accomplish in the next 6 months to a year? Refer to the Action plan assignment sheet for instructions on how to write a S.M.A.R.T. Goal.
Column 2 – What needs to be done? This column is for writing down specific, observable, measurable steps indicating what will be done differently to accomplish your goal. Descriptions of new plans must be specific enough so that it is possible to determine when the action has been implemented.
Column 3 – By whom? This column is used to indicate the person who is responsible for implementation of each particular step in the Action Plan. Although a number of people may be involved in implementing a particular step in the plan, this designated individual oversees this action.
Column 4 – By when? This column is used to identify the timeline for completion for each step in the action plan. Make sure timeframes are specific to allow time for the action to be completed.
Remember to consider what resources are needed and available? If needed, list out all necessary resources to implement this step. List resources that are available as well as ones that will be needed.

41. What’s Next? Use this tool to:
4/21/2017
What’s Next?
Use this tool to:
Choose one Predictor (or related “cluster” of predictors) from the predictor self-assessment.
Rate the implementation status for each of the characteristics listed.
Identify which characteristics are not currently being implemented.
Think about if you have the resources to implement the characteristics and the time it will take to get it up and running.
Of these characteristics, choose one to take action on (as a school or within individual student’s educational program)
Add this to your TAP 41

42. What Resources Can Help Me?
Evidence-based Practice Descriptions and Research to Practice Lesson Plans at
s/Evidence-Based_Practice_Flyer.May2013.pdf 42

43. Formula for Successful Goals
Purposeful planning
Effective Intervention
Effective Implementation
Positive outcomes for students
Adapted from Fixen & Blasé (2009)

44. Questions??

45. www.nsttac.org Contact Lauren K. Bethune, M.Ed
Graduate Research Assistant/Doctoral Student
National Secondary Transition Technical Assistance Center
University of North Carolina at Charlotte
David W. Test
Department of Special Education and Child Development
Co-Director, National Secondary Transition Technical Assistance Center