1. www.idc.com SOA – you ain’t seen nothin’ yet: projections for a likely future Rob Hailstone Director, European Software Infrastructure Research rhailstone@idc.com

2. 2 Copyright IDC 2005 Topics Techniques & pratfalls of prediction Hazards to the long-term success of SOA Convergence with parallel trends The central role of the repository Can we really avoid replacing the legacy?

3. 3 Copyright IDC 2005 Predictions – learning from the masters On eBusiness  “Nevertheless electric telegraphy must have greatly diminished the number of letters, for new improvements now permitted the sender to correspond directly with the addressee; secrecy of correspondence was thus preserved, and the most intricate deals could be transacted over long distances. - - - - permitted transmission of the facsimile of any form of writing or illustration; whether manuscript or print, and letters of credit or contracts could now be signed at a distance of 5,000 leagues.” Jules Verne - ‘Paris in the Twentieth Century’ - 1863 Identify the innovation, project the trend, determine likely impact on business world

4. 4 Copyright IDC 2005 Predictions – learning from the masters On ‘Calculating Machines’  “Instruments which did indeed resemble huge pianos: by operating a sort of keyboard, sums were instantaneously produced, remainders, products, quotients, rules of proportion, calculations of amortisation and of interest compounded for infinite periods and at all possible rates. There were high notes that afforded up to 150%!” Trend-spotting will miss disruptive innovations (in this case the CRT & the semiconductor) Jules Verne - ‘Paris in the Twentieth Century’ - 1863

5. 5 Copyright IDC 2005 Predictions – learning from the masters On Technophobes: “Yet he felt an authentic joy at abandoning his calculating machine: he was proud of having operated it so poorly.” Human factors – the best ideas can be misused or abused Jules Verne - ‘Paris in the Twentieth Century’ - 1863

6. 6 Copyright IDC 2005 Predictions – learning from the masters On Women  “The Frenchwoman has become Americanised; she speaks seriously about serious matters, she takes life seriously, she rides on the rigid saddle of modern manners, dresses poorly, tastelessly, & wears corsets of galvanised tin which can resist the most powerful pressures.” Trends never go to a ludicrous extreme – every trend has a point of inflexion Jules Verne - ‘Paris in the Twentieth Century’ - 1863

7. 7 Copyright IDC 2005 Lessons Identify the trends & business impact Spot possible interactions with parallel trends Look for disruptive innovations Factor in the human angle Decide what constitutes a ridiculous extreme It doesn’t take 150 years now before it’s obvious you got it wrong!

8. 8 Copyright IDC 2005 Topics Techniques & pratfalls of prediction Hazards to the long-term success of SOA Convergence with parallel trends The central role of the repository Can we really avoid replacing the legacy?

9. 9 Copyright IDC 2005 Assuming SOA delivers as promised As long as business requirements continue to focus on responsiveness & adaptability, SOA will not be displaced by any architecture that focuses purely on performance & scalability. SOA is more likely to provide the foundation for whatever comes next: Policy-based computing?

10. 10 Copyright IDC 2005 Hazards to the SOA trend Disruptive technologies  Massive-scale, solid-state persistent memory  RFID, “smart dust”, intelligent domestic devices  All seem to add value to SOA rather than devalue it Human Issues  Running before walking – the need to gain experience  Getting stuck on old best-practices – e.g. waterfall methodologies What is too extreme – where is the point of inflexion?  Is a reversal to monolithic applications likely?  Potential performance issues with large-scale SOA  Losing control of a large service portfolio

11. 11 Copyright IDC 2005 What do we have to ensure we get right? Design/development methodologies Tools to match the methodologies End-to-end performance monitoring Identity management & authorisations Service granularity

12. 12 Copyright IDC 2005 Topics Techniques & pratfalls of prediction Hazards to the long-term success of SOA Convergence with parallel trends The central role of the repository Can we really avoid replacing the legacy?

13. 13 Copyright IDC 2005 The search for the single view All the information is there somewhere! Needs a common way to connect the pieces  Independent of programming language  Independent of application platform  Independent of location  Independent of ownership  Tolerant of any legacy  Supportive of new innovations Sounds pretty similar to SOA

14. 14 Copyright IDC 2005 Information Consumers Content Provider Layer Technologies for single view Virtual Information System Metadata Repository Virtual Database Optimization & Synchronization Server OS Object DBMS Comp. Aided Engineering Application Server OS XML DBMS Document Management Server OS Content Management Collaboration Application Server OS RDBMS Custom Industry Application Server OS OLAP DBMS Analytic Application Server OS RDBMS ERP Suite Collaboration View OLAP View Web Services View Relational View Object View Text View Data Connector/Adapter Middleware Applications Web Services Processes BI Tools Portals Search Engines Plus ontology, semantic definitions, etc

15. 15 Copyright IDC 2005 SOA & Federated Database – common features Monolithic approach unworkable Multiple technologies exposed through standards Reliant on metadata repository Is a DBMS just a particular type of service? Would a single repository make sense?

16. 16 Copyright IDC 2005 Topics Techniques & pratfalls of prediction Hazards to the long-term success of SOA Convergence with parallel trends The central role of the repository Can we really avoid replacing the legacy?

17. 17 Copyright IDC 2005 SOA and the role of repository SOA is about exploiting heterogeneous environments  Heterogeneous operating systems, databases, application platforms, message brokers, integration technologies, service owners SOA is also about enabling change  Change assembly of services into composite applications, change of choreography of business processes, piecemeal change of the underlying services themselves This requires a degree of control that depends on a comprehensive repository of metadata Multiple, uncoordinated repositories will lead to chaos and ultimate failure This will make the repository the central focus of SOA But is a single repository a reasonable target?

18. 18 Copyright IDC 2005 Technologies for SOA User PortalExternal Events Management Initiators & Endpoints Business Rules Engine Process Orchestration Engine Process Coordination Security & Identity Mgt. System & Service Mgt. Supporting Infrastruct. Business to Service Mapping Model/ConstructBusiness Activity Mon. Services Metadata Registry Application Adapters Message Broker (MOM) Message Transformation Messaging Framework Data Adapters Database ServerApplication Server Application Infrastructure

19. 19 Copyright IDC 2005 Classes of metadata that need to be managed Service metadata: UDDI & other descriptive information Where-used and frequency of use metrics Service performance metrics: actual experienced Service to device mapping User metadata: security & identity management, security policies Process metadata: BPEL Rules metadata: business rules Federated content metadata

20. 20 Copyright IDC 2005 Good news / bad news The good news:  Most vendors permit 3 rd -party repositories to be used instead of the native repository delivered with the product  But sometimes with a loss of functionality The bad news:  Standards for exchanging and federating information across multiple repositories has mixed maturity. Good examples are –Liberty Alliance for federated identity information –UDDI for service “find and use” metadata

21. 21 Copyright IDC 2005 Metadata repository options Use a commercial free-standing repository as strategic component of SOA Build a custom repository using commercial tools Use multiple native repositories delivered with toolsets & federate these into a single logical repository Experience suggests most organisations will have a preferred, centrally managed repository, but federation will always be required (even if just to include external services)

22. 22 Copyright IDC 2005 Topics Techniques & pratfalls of prediction Hazards to the long-term success of SOA Convergence with parallel trends The central role of the repository Can we really avoid replacing the legacy?

23. 23 Copyright IDC 2005 Service granularity – critical trade-offs Fine-grained services Greatest adaptability Limit impact of change Coarse-grained services Best performance Simplified management Trend over time towards fine-grained services Prolonged legacy replacement

24. 24 Copyright IDC 2005 Trend towards granular applications SAP xApps  Stated vision to be 100% SOA by 2007 Microsoft Axapta  Architecture built on components Oracle Project Fusion  Integration of Peoplesoft in SOA-style by 2008 Tier-2 vendors adopting same strategy but on 3 rd party platforms All vendors building comprehensive directory of application services

25. 25 Copyright IDC 2005 Physical architecture limitations on adaptability Use of a common, shared database Data integrity rules implemented by database Service components ‘joined at the hip’ through the database Adds unwanted complexity to piecemeal service replacement

26. 26 Copyright IDC 2005 Possible platform for long-term SOA benefits Composite Services Low-level Services/ Data Persistence Business Processes Metadata RepositoryRules Engine

27. 27 Copyright IDC 2005 Implications of the architecture Potential for use of embedded technologies:  Embedded application platform  Embedded database Data content addressable through the service

28. 28 Copyright IDC 2005 Topics Techniques & pratfalls of prediction Hazards to the long-term success of SOA Convergence with parallel trends The central role of the repository Can we really avoid replacing the legacy?

29. www.idc.com SOA – you ain’t seen nothin’ yet: projections for a likely future Rob Hailstone Director, European Software Infrastructure Research rhailstone@idc.com