1. Modeling the Earth System at INPE Domingos Urbano & Paulo Nobre National Institute for Space Research – INPE Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies – CPTEC Center for Earth System Sciences – CCST SAMOC-3 Rio de Janeiro/Niterói, 11-13 May 2010

2. outline Climate Change research programs in Brazil Global climate model development Near future enhancements on seasonal to interannual climate predictions at INPE

3. Climate Change Research Programs in Brazil Rede CLIMA: Brazilian network on Climate Change Research (CCR) – 50 research groups on 10 Focal points – Grant: US$ 15 million over 5 years INCT-MC: National Institute on Science and Technology for CC – 26 research projects covering the science of climate change, impact-adaptation-vulnerability studies, and mitigation; technological developments in climate modeling and geosensors – 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries; 400 researchers and students involved – Grant: US$ 3.7 M for 3 years FAPESP program on CCR – New 15 TF supercomputer facility at INPE – Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System (ESM) – Grant of US$ 5 M per year during the next 10 years

4. “Rede CLIMA” Focal Points Water Resources UFPE, Recife Regional Development UnB, Brasília Coastal Zones FURG, Rio Grande Biodiversity and Ecossistems MPEG, Belém Cities and Industry Unicamp, Campinas Agriculture EMBRAPA, Campinas Renewable Energy COPPE / UFRJ, RJ Human Health Fiocruz, RJ Economy of Climate Change USP, São Paulo Climate Modeling INPE CST

5. GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL INCT - MC

6. INPE’s Supercomputer for Climate Change Research Sustained Throughput 15 Tflops Main Memory20 TBytes Primary Storage3 PBytes Aquisition InstallationEarly 2010 Total budgetUS$ 25 M... and will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 20 km !

7. Development of a Global Climate System Model A single proposal will be selected Consortium of research institutions lead by São Paulo State institution (but engaging institutions from all over Brazil and from abroad) Build-up of existing experience and models developed in Brazil Applied to climate change research No “black-box” solution accepted Aims to developing capacity in all components of Global Climate System Modelling Strongly associated to PhD training Four years duration; US$ 1.5 M

8. Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System Mid 2000s Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Dynamic Vegetation Atmospheric Chemistry Aerosol Carbon Cycle Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Sulphate Aerosol Non-sulphate Aerosol Carbon Cycle Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Sulphate Aerosol Atmosphere Land Surface Ocean & Sea-Ice Atmosphere Land Surface Atmosphere Around 2000Late 1990sEarly 1990sMid-1980sMid-1970s The Climate System

9. CPTEC.2.0 T213L64 MOM4, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50 SSiB + NCAR’s IBIS GFDL's FMS

10. INPE’s Climate Forecast Coupled Suite Goal Data Assimilation AGCM OGCM Atmos OBS T-S IC Coupled Forecast Atmos FCST daily/hourly SFC fluxes SST OGCM AGCM 6 hourly Regional Model 3 hourly Hydrology Model Crop Model Health Model Wave Model

11. INPE’s CGCM FMS implementation Flux Ocean to Ice Update Ice Model up Update Atmos Model Atmos Loop Atmos Loop End Flux Ice to Ocean Update Ice Model down Ocean Loop Ocean Loop End Update Ocean Model Coupled Loop Coupler End Coupler Init Slow Loop Fast Fast Land Loop Land Loop End Update Land Model Fast Flux Ice to Land Update Ice Model down

12. Component models… Atmos GCM: – CPTEC.2.0 mpi/open_mp, – Semi-Lagrangian, – Resolution T62L64; T126L64; T213L64 Increased PBL and Stratosphere vertical resolution – RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection Improved stratus parameterization scheme – atmospheric chemistry & aerosols Land Surface Model: IBIS/INLAND‏ – Dynamic vegetation – Carbon Cycle – Fire Model – Improved hires land surface hidrology

13. Component models… OGCM: – MOM4, – Global, 1/4 x 1/4 deep tropics, – L50, 10m spacing upper 250 m, – Philander and Pakanowski vertical mixing – free surface, – fresh water flux, – river inflow; – Dynamical ice model (SIS)‏ – Biogeochemistry model (Topaz, Bling) GFDLs FSM coupler – Up to 3-hourly coupling interval (lim. atmos radiation)

14. INPE developments on the atmospheric chemistry modeling Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the RAMS CATT

15. Injection layer plume top lower bound plume top upper bound 1D plume-rise model for vegetation fires Biome: Forest 1D plume-rise model for vegetation fires Biome: Forest Time duration: 50 mn Fire size: 20 ha Heat flux: 80 kWm -2 / 30 kWm -2 Including plume rise mechanism trough ”super-parameterization” concept

16. INPE developments on the surface modeling INLAND

17. River flow and flooded areas Aplications over: – Amazônia – Pantanal – Araguaia Implications: – Flux exchanges between sfc and atmos – Hydrology – Carbon cycle Costa et al., in press HAND

19. 3 Classes HAND

20. Processes Resolved: River inflow effects on salinity MOM4 with river discharge MOM3 w/o river discharge

21. Ocean biogeochemistry MOM4p1: OCMIP-2 (diagnostic) + 3 functional groups prognostic Challenges: Dynamic Green Ocean Models (Le Quéré & al. 2005): 10 functiona groups Emergent Biogeography (Follows & al. 2007): emerging functional groups

22. Ice Cover Simulation INPE COUPLED O-A GCM

23. OGCM Grid

24. INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling 30 days avrg spinup SST

25. INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling 30 days avrg spinup Precip

26. Few results from INPE’s CGCM V.1.0 Nobre et al., 2009 Journal of Climate, vol. 22

27. 27 Vegetation Scenarios Nobre et al. (2009)‏

28. 28 1 st jEOF SST-Wind Stress 200 yrs ctrl run Nobre et al. (2009)‏ Defor3 CTRL ENSO like mode of variability reproduced by CGCM and amplified by AM deforestation

29. 29 Long term departures average (experiment – control) 20 yrs & 10 member Local rainfall reduction & temperature increase over AM (> CGCM) Precipitation and temperature increase over eastern OP (is a coupled response -- def.)

30. Amazon Deforestation Experiment: Increased El Niño Conditions PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE Nobre et al. (2009) Statistically significant departures are shaded

31. 31 Zonal Velocities over the Pacific Ctrl (contours); Deforest – Ctrl (shades)‏ Nobre et al. (2009)‏

32. 32 Pacific Thermocline Depth Deforest – Ctrl (shades) ‏ Nobre et al. (2009)‏

33. 33 mensage Amazon deforestation induces global rainfall, atmospheric, and oceanic circulation pattern changes which resemble ENSO-like states;Amazon deforestation induces global rainfall, atmospheric, and oceanic circulation pattern changes which resemble ENSO-like states; There seems to exist a positive feedback between Amazon rainfall reduction associated with tropical rainforest clearing and ENSO conditions in the coupled model results;There seems to exist a positive feedback between Amazon rainfall reduction associated with tropical rainforest clearing and ENSO conditions in the coupled model results; Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling is central to produce the global-scale rainfall and circulation pattern changes due to tropical deforestation.Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling is central to produce the global-scale rainfall and circulation pattern changes due to tropical deforestation.

34. Planned enhancements of Seasonal and Interannual climate predictions at CPTEC Enhance AGCM resolution to T213L64 op Enhance CGCM resolution to global – AGCM T213L64 – OGCM 1/8 degree lat-lon, 50 levels Increase FCST time to 12 months Increase ensemble size to 30 per model Multi-model: RAS, Grell, Kain-Fritsch, Kuo

35. Thank you pnobre@cptec.inpe.br domingos.urbano@cptec.inpe.br

36. PIRATA PBR-XI e SWE-IV PART 2 CNPq 38/2009: 48 XCP (1200m) 2 LADCP (bottom) 2 PCD+Tide Gauge

37. UCTD