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O PROJETO PIRATA & sua importância para a previsão climática regional. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE IIIX Reunião de Análise Climática do Nordeste/2003 Recife,

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Presentation on theme: "O PROJETO PIRATA & sua importância para a previsão climática regional. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE IIIX Reunião de Análise Climática do Nordeste/2003 Recife,"— Presentation transcript:

1 O PROJETO PIRATA & sua importância para a previsão climática regional. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE IIIX Reunião de Análise Climática do Nordeste/2003 Recife, 4-5 de setembro de 2003 Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE X-ISABP Arraial do Cabo, RJ 23 August 2004

2 The PIRATA Rational To provide a better description of the two main modes of Tropical Atlantic SST variability, namely the: –Equatorial mode: [interannual] –Meridional mode: [decadal]

3 The PIRATA PROJECT FranceIRDBrazilINPE/DHNUSANOAA 1995 Fortaleza 1996 Natal st Buoy Moored 2001 MOU 2003 PIRATA BRAZIL 2004 PPA 2005SWE

4 THE PIRATA BACKBONE

5 PIRATA BRAZIL CPTEC/ INPE Satellite & Coupled O-A Modeling DHN/CHN Marine Operations IO/USP Education and Training FUNCEME Applications

6 Marine Operations

7 PIRATA SATELLITE DATA RELAY

8 PIRATA buoy data available on near-real time on the Internet: 12N 38W0N 23W AUG 23, 2004 TEMPERATURESOLAR RADIATION

9 Solar Radiation Estimates Diagramas de dispersão da série temporal diária de radiação solar à superfície da bóia PIRATA 8ºN 38ºW. ERA40 REANALISES GL 1.2 ISSCP PIRATA Diagramas de dispersão da série temporal diária de radiação solar à superfície da bóia PIRATA 8ºN 38ºW. ERA40 REANALISES GL 1.2 ISSCP PIRATA Diagramas de dispersão da série temporal diária de radiação solar à superfície da bóia PIRATA 8ºN 38ºW. ERA40 REANALISES GL 1.2 ISSCP PIRATA ERA40 REANALISES GL 1.2 ISSCP PIRATA PIRATA 8N-38W GOES PIRATA 8N-38W GOES 0.04 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution

10 Buoy Data Received at CPTEC from GTS within a 24h period.

11 PIRATA BACKBONE & SW EXTENSION Background Map: Long term mean No. SST observations/month (COADS)

12 PIRATA ARRAY PIRATA SWE

13 The PIRATA SWE: Why It? 1.To complement PIRATAs ITCZ study (the meridional SST mode) 2.To expand PIRATA, including SACZ sea- air exchanges and tropics-extra tropics interactions 3.To improve regional climate predictability

14 Objectives Improving knowledge of ocean- atmospheric interactions over the tropical South Atlantic toward generating skillful SST predictions –Modeling effort to improve coupled o-a models and forecasting tools –Enhancing oceanographic and meteorological observational infrastructure over the tropical South Atlantic

15 Mechanisms to be studied SITCZ-Cold Tong Complex (Grodsky and Carton, 2002) Western Atlantic Warm Pool (Huang and Carton, 1995) Eastern Nordeste seasonal rainfall predictability (Rao and Lima, 1993) SACZ-SST feedback processes (Chaves and Nobre, 2004; Barreiro and Chang, 2003)

16 An enhanced observational network over the SW Atlantic: Benefits Both satellite altimetry and tide gauges measurements along the coast and islands are necessary for an effective monitoring of mean sea level. T-S vertical profiles are needed to estimate the amount of heat stored on the upper ocean.

17 Density Anomaly Advection by the South Equatorial Current

18 SITCZ (Grodsky and Carton, 2002)

19 SACZ & SSTA : Observations NOVEMBER 1999

20 Nobre et al. (2002)

21 Source regions of Subtropical- Tropical Cell waters From: Hazeleger et al. (2003)

22 Anomaly Correlation: Nordeste Dry Spells Duration & SST

23 Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004

24 CPTECs Ocean-Atmosphere coupled model suite Forced Spin up AGCM OGCM SST Tau Heat IC Coupled Forecast Atmos FCST daily/hourly SFC fluxes SST OGCM AGCM daily

25 Coupled GCM for Weather Prediction: The Catarina Phenomenon

26 Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer climate?

27 Ventos & Correntes PIRATA

28 Equatorial Undercurrent Simulation at CPTEC

29

30 PERSISTENCE MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILL Repelli and Nobre (2004)

31 SIMOC MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILL Repelli and Nobre (2004)

32 SIMOC SSTA FORECAST SKILL North Atlantic South Atlantic NOVEMBER DECEMBER Repelli and Nobre (2004)

33

34 Nobre et al. (2002)

35 Chaves (2003) WARM-COLD SST OGCM EXPERIMENTS

36 CPTECs Coupled Ocean- Atmosphere model suite


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