Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 1 Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert systems:

Published byJemimah Simmons Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 1 Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert systems:"— Presentation transcript:

1 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de 1 Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert systems: Dealing with uncertainty J. Kropp, M. Kallache, H. Rust, K. Eisenack Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Structure 1.How to deal with uncertainty in the adaptation discussion? 2.Adaptation to sea level rise: Regional assessments via DIVA 3.River floods assessment, limitations and Chances: The Vistula example 4.Consequences for local adaptation policies 5.Conclusion

2 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Where are our „Achilles heels“: in the economic, natural, and social sense?

3 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Coast Lines Lower Saxony 0-2000AD Source: Behre 1999

4 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de „Miserable Waterflood in Lower-Germany 1717“ At the North sea coast dyke construction since 1100AD Reasons: Maladaptation! mainly landuse

5 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Back to Reality: River Elbe Flood 2002/Pärnu Storm Surge 2005

6 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de How to assess “protection level” Wave overflow: Return level right Weser bank for current dyke heights (3900yr) Climate change scenario: average high tide + 70cm +3.8% increase of wind speed (return level 1000yrs). (after Liedermann & Zimmermann 2003)COSTS? Secondary effects?…..

7 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de The DIVA Expert System

8 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Initial Settings for DIVA Runs Protection level: 1000yr/return level, storm surge/river flood Dike failure (breach) mode: wave overflow Tidal basin, nourishment: CBA Migration allowed due to changing env. conditions: yes Time steps of calculation: 5 yrs Simulation time: 2000-2100 Input SRES scenarios: A1FI („worst case“), B2 („best case“); regionalized SLR scenarios based on PIK‘s CLIMBER model (for each SRES family, low/medium/high-uniform/regionalized)

9 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Regional Sealevel Rise: 1995-2100 SRES-A1FI/B2 How large the adaptation costs will be? Best case: B2 Worst case: A1FI

10 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Adaptation Costs: Sea Level Rise (dike construction & preservation, beach nourishment, etc.) Year 2000 Year: 2100

11 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Total Adaptation Costs (Mio US$) A1FI: Most relevant for Estonia due to sandy beaches and no dikes Start-up investments to guarantee 1000yr protection level needed....

12 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de River impact length (1000yr flood) A1FI B2

13 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Other Possible Things..... Salinity intrusion costs Sea dike costs River dike costs People actually flooded per storm surge Sand loss Loss of flats Beach nourishment costs Area influenced by salinization due to slr Tidal basin demand for sand nourishment.... Typical expert system which means that usage by stakeholders Needs involvement of experts for simulation runs and interpretation

14 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Improved Flood Risk Assessment Retrospective on river run-offs: assumptions needed, e.g. climate change signal can be found in run-off data (trend = nonstationarity) Main results: No uniform behaviour for rivers worldwide Standard statistics is unsuitable for assessment tasks Adequate analytical procedures can confine uncertainty Examples (annual – stationary, implies no trends!): Odra/Gozdowice (109729 km 2, Poland) Vistula/Tczew (194376 km 2, Poland) Daugava/Daugavpils (64500 km 2 Latvia) Nemunas/Smalininkai (81200 km 2 Lithuania) But is this the end of the story?

15 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Trends and Extremes in Time Series Extremes? Definition: A trend is a long-term movement which can be distinguished from oscillation and noise. distinguished from oscillation and noise. x(t) = Trend(t) + Oscillations(t) + Noise(t)

16 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de PRUDENCE Comparison 1961/90 – 2075/2100, A2 Hadley Boundary  T (°C)  P (%) BSR Countries* (model mean) TaTaTaTa T (DJF) T(JJA) PaPaPaPaP(DJF)P(JJA) Denmark1.11.01.12.49.8-6.4 Estonia1.41.61.24.210.24.5 Finland1.41.71.05.810.94.6 Germany North 1.21.11.30.16.0-7.3 Latvia1.41.61.23.29.71.8 Lithuania1.41.51.22.08.8-1.1 Poland1.31.31.30.76.0-4.0 Sweden North 1.31.51.05.39.02.7 Sweden South 1.21.31.13.511.4-2.1

17 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Gauge: Daugava/Daugavapils (JJA) Linear trend in mean and variance (1,1,0 - obtained via model fit routines) Design flood values differ significantly! More torrential rain in summer: regime shift! Kallache/Rust/Kropp 2005: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics

18 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Bootstrapping for Confining Uncertainty Results: Red: theory, asymptotic fit Grey: bootstrap ensemble 100yr return level9 Estimates for „design flood values“ are too small (6-15% difference!) Rust/Kallache/Kropp 2006: Advances in Water Resources Res., under review Gauge: Vistula/Tczew: Catchment: ~200.000 km 2 Length: 1900-1994 Problem: data series too short! 1.Huge model library (more than 50) 2.Define model selection criteria 3.Select best fitting model 4.Generate bootstrap ensemble 5.Perform statistics

19 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de My demand: Inclusion of these procedure into the daily practice

20 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de 20 1. Improved technique integrated and views can reduce adverse impacts 2. Communities can adapt autonomously only partly, they need help of scientists 4. Planned (anticipated )adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits 6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries, regions and socio-economic groups 8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable (people, regions…) 9. Current knowledge of adaptation & adaptive capacity is insufficient 10. Technical progress is essential for suitable adaptation Conclusion - Main Findings with Respect to Adaptation

21 Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 kropp@pik-potsdam.de Climate Disruptions, Heart Attacks and Market Crashes We need a new science and planning for disasters.... Bunde/Kropp/Schellnhuber, Springer 2002

Download ppt "Gdansk Conference October 26-27 th, 2006 1 Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert systems:"

Similar presentations

Implementation Challenges Mozaharul Alam Regional Climate Change Coordinator Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Bangkok, Thailand.

Implementation Challenges Mozaharul Alam Regional Climate Change Coordinator Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Bangkok, Thailand.
NCCARF 2014 Steve George.

NCCARF 2014 Steve George.
Climate Change Effects and Assessment of Adaptation Potential in the Russian Federation. Julia Dobrolyubova Expert on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol.

Climate Change Effects and Assessment of Adaptation Potential in the Russian Federation. Julia Dobrolyubova Expert on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol.
Adaptation Action Areas Jim Murley South Florida Regional Planning Council AAA Workshop, August 28, 2014.

Adaptation Action Areas Jim Murley South Florida Regional Planning Council AAA Workshop, August 28, 2014.
Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project Government Office for Science Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills Overview by: Colin Thorne.

Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project Government Office for Science Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills Overview by: Colin Thorne.
William Solecki City University of New York – Hunter College

William Solecki City University of New York – Hunter College
AIACC Regional Study AS07 Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and Extreme Hydrological due to Climate Change.

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and Extreme Hydrological due to Climate Change.
ClimWatAdapt – 2 nd Stakeholder Meeting Budapest, 30-31 March 2011 Martina Flörke Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Climate.

ClimWatAdapt – 2 nd Stakeholder Meeting Budapest, March 2011 Martina Flörke Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel Climate.
Nidal Salim, Walter Wildi Institute F.-A. Forel, University of Geneva, Switzerland Impact of global climate change on water resources in the Israeli, Jordanian.

Nidal Salim, Walter Wildi Institute F.-A. Forel, University of Geneva, Switzerland Impact of global climate change on water resources in the Israeli, Jordanian.
1 Preparing Washington for a Changing Climate An Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy Department of Ecology Hedia Adelsman, Executive Policy Advisor.

1 Preparing Washington for a Changing Climate An Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy Department of Ecology Hedia Adelsman, Executive Policy Advisor.
IPCC Projection (AR 4, 2007) The annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Bangladesh. Decadal rain anomalies are above long term averages since.

IPCC Projection (AR 4, 2007) The annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Bangladesh. Decadal rain anomalies are above long term averages since.
Climate Change Scenarios Requirement for Bangladesh Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam Associate Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University.

Climate Change Scenarios Requirement for Bangladesh Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam Associate Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University.
 Country Context and status of National Communication  National climate change priorities, socio-economic scenarios and the driving forces  Climate.

 Country Context and status of National Communication  National climate change priorities, socio-economic scenarios and the driving forces  Climate.
Climate Change and Disaster Risk1 Implications for policy and practice Session 2 World Bank Institute Maarten van Aalst.

Climate Change and Disaster Risk1 Implications for policy and practice Session 2 World Bank Institute Maarten van Aalst.
Water Management Presentations Summary Determine climate and weather extremes that are crucial in resource management and policy making Precipitation extremes.

Water Management Presentations Summary Determine climate and weather extremes that are crucial in resource management and policy making Precipitation extremes.
Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Sonja Vidič Meteorological.

Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Sonja Vidič Meteorological.
Sarah Cornell Andrew Watkinson, Mikis Tsimplis & Tyndall RT4 team The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research.

Sarah Cornell Andrew Watkinson, Mikis Tsimplis & Tyndall RT4 team The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research.
Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiji and the Cook Islands (AIACC Project SIS09) Conducted.

Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiji and the Cook Islands (AIACC Project SIS09) Conducted.
Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC Project SIS09) Conducted by: Pacific Centre for Sustainable.

Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC Project SIS09) Conducted by: Pacific Centre for Sustainable.
TECHNOLOGY FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN COASTAL ZONES Richard J.T. Klein 1,2 1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany 2. Stockholm.

TECHNOLOGY FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN COASTAL ZONES Richard J.T. Klein 1,2 1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany 2. Stockholm.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google