1. WHY THE DROP IN CRIME? Executive Issues Seminar Series 1997 Law Enforcement Management Institute of Texas Sam Houston State University

2. CRIME TRENDS Dr. Larry Hoover Police Research Center Sam Houston State University

3. POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS Social-demographic Trends Economic Conditions Drug Use Prevalence Incarceration Rates Police Programs.

4. YOUR AGENCY’S PROGRAM Select a single program “Crime Specific” if possible Real or potential reduction in offense incidence.

5. TWO CONTRASTING MEASURES UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS Offenses Known to the Police Part I and Part II Catagories Hierarchy Rule Counts Both Personal & Business Part I Offenses : Murder, Rape, Robbery, Agg Assault, Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft, Larceny, (Arson). NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY Census Bureau Telephone Survey Rotating Sample of 56,000 Households Victimization of persons and household for: Rape, Robbery, Assault, Personal Theft, Household Theft, Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft.

6. LIMITATIONS OF THE UCR Offense Classification is Subject to Bias & Inconsistency Varies with Citizen Propensity to Report Varies with Police Propensity to Record Part I Catagory Skewed by Larceny.

7. CRIME INDEX OFFENSES 1997 Percent Distribution Source: 1997 UCR

8. LIMITATION OF THE NCVS Does Not Count Business Crime Subject to Recall Inconsistency, Including Telescoping Significant Variation When Queries Are Rephrased, Redesign in 1994 Complicates Prior Comparisons Measures Only Victimizations of Those Over 12 Yrs., National Sample Only.

9. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS REGARDING UCR TRENDS Overall Rate Nearly Tripled from 1960 to 1975, relatively stable from 1975 until 1985, then increased by 13% 1985-91 Murder Rate Dropped 20% from 1980 to 1995, Now the Same as the 1970’s Serious Violent Crime Rate Peaked in 1991, Has Dropped 10% Since Then, But Is Still 40% Higher Than In 1975 Crimes Reported to the Police Have Dropped in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995.

10. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS REGARDING NCVS TRENDS Shows Gradual Decrease in Property Crime Except Auto Theft from 1984 to 1992 Slight Increase in Violent Crime During Same Period Redesigned in 1993 A 4.5% Decrease in Property Crime from 1993 to 1994, a Slight Decrease in Violent Crime A 9% Decrease in Property Crime from 1994 to 1995, a 12% Decrease in Violent Crime.

19. UCR TOTAL INDEX RATE

20. NATIONAL VIOLENT UCR INDEX

21. NATIONAL PROPERTY UCR INDEX

22. DISCREPENCIES BETWEEN UCR AND NCVS Most Obvious Explanation for Dramatic Increases in UCR During Late 1980’s Compared to NCVS Is Police Recording Possible That Reporting Increased, Particularly in Sexual Assault, But Does Not Likely Account for All Differences Possible But Very Unlikely That Differences in Crime Targets (Businesses) Account for Some Difference.

25. STATEWIDE UCR RATE

26. Change From 1996 to 1997 Selected Texas Cities Amarillo -7.8% Lubbock -1.4% Brownsville -6.3% McAllen-13.3% Dallas +0.2% Fort Worth-10.1% Garland -8.9% Grand Prairie +8.2% Killeen +2.4% San Angelo -6.3% Longview -9.0% Tyler +4.1%

27. TEXAS MSA CRIME RATE TRENDS

28. 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 STATEWIDE AUSTIN DALLAS EL PASO FT WORTH HOUSTON SAN ANTONIO MSA % DECREASE UCR DECLINE 1990-97

29. TIME FOR THE RECEPTION