1. NSF Awards 0308420 & 0308420, NIH Award 5R21GM084714-02
Causes and Impacts of Climate Change in East Africa: Links to Crops, Livestock, Natural Ecosystems, and Health
Jennifer Olson
And Gopal Alagarswamy, Jeff Andresen, David Campbell, Declan Conway, Ruth Doherty, Jianjun Ge, Clair Hanson, Sarah Hession, Marianne Huebner, Brent Lofgren, Dave Lusch, Stephen Magezi, Joseph Maitima, Joseph Messina, Salome Misana, Nathan Moore, Sam Mugisha, John Nganga, John Kaneene, Bryan Pijanowski, Jiaguo Qi, Philip Thornton, Nate Torbick, Jing Wang, Pius Yanda, Lijian Yang
NSF Awards & , NIH Award 5R21GM
University
of Nairobi

2. Climate Change Causes Comparing relative importance of causes –
Greenhouse Gases (GHG) from the global scale,
Land use change from the local to regional scale

3. And Effects Rising temperatures
1974
2007
Rising temperatures
Changing precipitation patterns (location, timing, variability)
Extremes – droughts, floods, storms 3 3

4. Methodology Identify recent trends in climate
Calibrate regional climate model RAMS for East Africa using climate and land surface data.
Higher resolution, better topography and landscape than global circulation models;
Develop/calibrate land use change & crop models;
Couple climate, land use & crop models to simulate future climate (2050), compare climate vs. land use effects, and
Identify impacts on crop yields, savanna vegetation, livestock productivity, households, and zoonotic diseases through ecological & socioeconomic field work, modeling. 4 4

5. Temperature Trends
Source: Tanzania Meteorological Agency 5 5

6. Precipitation Trends

7. Experiments for exploring climate-land interactions
Land Cover Global Climate Comparison:
1: Current Current Baseline
2: Current decade Future climate effects only
3: decade Current Future land cover effects only
4: decade decade Synergistic effects 7 7 7

8. Land Use Changes

9. Differences in Temperature (RCM)
Climate Change (GHG) LCLUC Combined Effects
Effects Effects 9 9 9

10. Differences in Precipitation (RCM)
Climate Change Land Use Change Synergistic Effects
(GHG) Effects (LUC) Effects 10 10 10

11. Wind pattern changes due to LCLUC11 11

12. Summary of Projected Future
Near large bodies of water, rainfall changes due to LUC are of similar magnitude to that associated with GHG. Farther from water, gains in rainfall from GHG may be offset by reduced rainfall due to LUC;
All areas will see increases in variability of rainfall—intense storms, droughts and floods—due to GHG;
CLIP results suggest the importance of sub-regional factors affecting climate and resulting impacts. 12 12

13. Impacts
Agricultural systems
Natural ecosystems
Health

14. Impact on Crop Growth Temperatures – Precipitation –
more rapid phenology, shorter growing season
evapotranspiration higher so need more water
Precipitation –
Frequency, timing and inter-annual variability. Some crops highly sensitive to when rain falls during season (e.g., maize).

15. Maize yields under current climate conditions
Rainfall and soils limit production
Model assumes low input levels
Deterministic process based simulation models (DSSAT CERES); CCSM v4 and WorldClim.

16. Difference in maize yields due to GHG and LUC 2000 to 2050
Green=increase in yields
Brown=decline in yields

17. Highlands Warmer temperatures, especially Tmin, enhance maize yields.
Possible shift to maize at the expense of high value tea, coffee.
Reduced incomes

18. Lowlands, cropping systems
Warmer temperatures lead to more rapid phenology, shortening the growing season and reducing yield;
Warmer temperatures combined with similar or reduced rainfall leads to declining crop yields;
Less water available for irrigation.

19. Agro-pastoral systems
Warmer temperatures lead to vegetation drying faster and water becoming scarce faster.
Savanna vegetation composition changing, bush encroachment observed;
Forage productivity and palatability declining;
Droughts impacting faster, more severe;
Livestock and human
diseases more frequent
with climatic extremes.

20. Adaptations, Agro-Pastoralists
Changing livestock breeds
More camels, goats
New goat and cattle breeds from Somalia
Distance traveled daily to water, forage longer, herding patterns changing
Reduced burning (less biomass)
More pastoralists are cropping to cope with frequent drought (but some fields abandoned due to failure of short rains)

21. Natural ecosystems
Some wildlife highly sensitive to changes in temperature and to water availability, e.g., hippos, fish. Local extinctions possible. Wildlife migration patterns disrupted.

22. Highly Vulnerable Ecosystems (1)
Wetlands: surface water will decline, yet usage will intensify. High concentrations of livestock and wildlife lead to land degradation.
Highlands: rapid climate changes towards warmer temperatures. Risk of increased fire, loss of glaciers, altered vegetation composition.

23. Highly Vulnerable Ecosystems (2)
Coasts: higher rainfall, stronger storms and waves, sea level rise lead to erosion, inundation, salt water intrusion. Urban infrastructure affected.
Coral reefs: ocean surface water warming fast, bleaching.

24. Impacts on Zoonotic Diseases
Impacts of climate and land use change on Trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) distribution: A Dynamic Ecological Simulation Model of Tsetse transmitted Trypanosomiasis in Kenya (NIH)
Impacts of climate, land use and management change on Bovine TP: Modeling the Ecological and Socioeconomic Determinants of Tuberculosis Transmission in Humans, Livestock and Wildlife

25. Educational Links
Capacity building of teachers/ lecturers, and new curriculum modules for university / K-12 levels (science, math, social studies, etc.). Implemented by US and East African professors & teachers, will be online and distributed at state & national levels.
New internet connected, computer assisted technologies in schools and communities in Tanzania (ICT Global Corps).

26.
Contact (Olson):