1. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 1 Survey of New Hanover County Voters February 2, 2010

2. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 2 New Hanover County Survey 2/10/10  Survey of 400 registered voters was conducted by Capitol Communications over two nights beginning February 1, 2010.  The 43 question survey was conducted by phone and has a margin of error of ± 4.90 in 95 out of 100 cases.

3. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 3 Voter Intensity  We tested on voter intensity for Primary and General Elections. The sample was pulled from active voters who had participated in at least one of the last two statewide election cycles and newly registered voters since November 2010.  83% said they were likely to vote in General elections and 48.8% were likely to vote in a Primary election.

4. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 4 Voter Intensity  On the Primary ballot, voters who favored the sales tax were 21.3% likely voters while voters against the sales tax were 42.0% likely voters.  Undecided voters were 37.2% likely voters.  Those favorable to Cape Fear Council for Progressiveness – 38.7% likely voters.  Those favorable to Citizens for Tax Fairness – 50.9% likely voters.

5. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 5 Political Structure and Ideological Profile of New Hanover County  Currently, New Hanover voters describe themselves as Conservative to Moderate in their political beliefs.  48.5% of the voters described themselves as Conservatives compared to 29.8% as Moderates and 14.8% as Liberals.  32.3% of the voters said they vote Republican, 26.8% said they vote Democratic and 37.3% said they split their ticket on election day.

6. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 6 Single Most Important Issue Facing New Hanover Today  39.8% Economy/Jobs  8.3% Taxes  7.8% Schools/Education/Funding  6.3% Roads/Traffic/Bridges  3.8% Budget/Deficit/Government Spending  1.5% Crime  1.3% Annexation  1.0% Economic Development

7. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 7 Right Direction/Wrong Direction

8. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 8 Issues New Hanover County Voters are Generally Most Concerned About Economic Issues 58.5% Moral Issues 5.3% Social Issues 19.8% Urban Issues 6.0% Foreign Affairs 7.3%

9. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 9 Thinking about your county taxes, do you think the county taxes you pay are too high, too low or just about right?  51.8% said too high.  2.6% said too low.  42.3% said about right.  3.3% Don’t Know/Refused.  63.5% of those opposed to the sales tax referendum said too high.

10. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 10 If you were a county commissioner, what would be your top priority?  27.8% – Improve Schools  24.8% – Control Spending  15.5% – Provide economic incentives  14.5% – Lower Taxes  7.3%– Improve County Services to Seniors  6.3% – Protect the environment .8% – Improve Parks  3.3% – Don’t know/refused

11. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 11 This May, voters will be asked to approve a ¼% sales tax, which is about 5 million dollars in new taxes, in order to avoid future property tax increases. Would you vote for or against the new sales tax?

12. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 12 This May, voters will be asked to approve a ¼% sales tax, which is about 5 million dollars in new taxes, in order to avoid future property tax increases. Would you vote for or against the new sales tax?  Voters who always vote in Primary Elections were 39.5% for and 49.7% would vote against sales tax.  Likely November voters were 37.8% for and 51.5% against the sales tax.  65+ voters were 36.9% for 52.2% against.

13. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 13 This May, voters will be asked to approve a ¼% sales tax, which is about 5 million dollars in new taxes, in order to avoid future property tax increases. Would you vote for or against the new sales tax?  Self-described Liberals were 50.8% for and 40.7% against the sales tax.  Self-described Moderates were 42.0% for and 47.9% against the sales tax.  Self-described Conservatives were 32.0% for and 57.2% against the sales tax.  Women were 36.8% in favor and 50.0% opposed compared to Men who were 38.3% in favor and 53.7% opposed.

14. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 14 We Then Asked Those Who were Opposed (N=207) a Series of Questions on How the Sales Tax Revenue Would be Used  Keep Libraries Open – Now Favor 30% (N=62) – Total Ballot in Favor 53%.  Tourists will help Pay – Now Favor 31.4% (N=65) – Total Ballot in Favor 54%.  Reduce Property Taxes 65+ - Now Favor 37.7% (N=78) – Total Ballot in Favor 57%.  No Food Tax – Now Favor 31.9% (N=66) Total Ballot in Favor 54%.

15. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 15  Used for Economic Incentives – Now Favor 27.5% (N=57) – Total Ballot in Favor 52%.  Improve Road – Now Favor 26.6% (N=57) Total Ballot in Favor 51%.  Reduce Cuts to Schools – Now Favor 31.4% (N=65) – Total Ballot in Favor 54%. We Then Asked Those Who were Opposed (N=207) a Series of Questions on How the Sales Tax Revenue Would be Used

16. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 16 Reduce Property Tax on 65+ Moved the Most Voters Who were Against the Sales Tax  Voters age 65+ (N=157) were 36.9% for and 52.2% against the sales tax on the initial ballot test question.  When informed of the lowering of property taxes, of those opposed (N=82), 36.6% (N=30) would now favor the sales tax referendum.  Total ballot test with this group moved from 36.9% opposed to now 56% in favor or N=88.

17. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 17 Where do you get your political information? (N=400)  50.8% Television  23.3% Newspapers  11.5% Internet  6.0% Radio  3.5% Magazines  2.0% Family and Friends  1.5% Other

18. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 18 Where do you get your political information? (N=400)  Voters <40 said 56.3% Television, 31.3% Internet and 0% for Newspapers and Radio.  Voters>40 said 46.2% Television, 28.7% Newspapers, 7.6% Internet, 6.4% Radio.  High School Grads said 66.7% Television, 18.8% Newspapers and 2.9% Internet.  College Grads said 50.7% Television, 22.2% Newspapers and 13.9% Internet.

19. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 19 Conclusion of Sales Tax Ballot Issue  Passage of the Sales Tax is a steep hill to climb.  Voters who are opposed to the tax are clearly more likely to turnout and vote than those voters who favor the tax.  The case has to be made that tough times require tough choices. If the issue becomes one about taxes and more government, then the referendum will fail.

20. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 20 Conclusion of Sales Tax Ballot Issue  The campaign has to define what happens if the sales tax fails and the commissioners must be prepared to follow through if it does fail.  The current mood of voters is more about the national mood than local politics. As individuals, the commissioners are well liked. The low job approval is more of a reflection of attitudes towards government in general.

21. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 21 Conclusion of Sales Tax Ballot Issue  In addition to stating your case to the voters, you will have to change the opinion of some voters in order to win.  This has to be done with facts and you clearly have to state what happens without the new revenue. Your case will be stronger by showing how people are impacted, not government.

22. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 22 Conclusion of Sale Tax Ballot Issue  In addition to informing the voters of the issue, there has to be a strong ground game to turnout those voters who favor the sales tax.  Since voter intensity is working against the issue, you have to aggressively identify your supporters and then follow up with them and make sure they vote.

23. New Hanover County Capitol Communications Restricted 23 Conclusion of Sale Tax Ballot Issue  Be prepared for a push back on the issue. Others will argue that the tax is not needed. You have to be aggressive in countering their arguments. Do not let their arguments cement public opinion against you.  If your plans can include a homestead exemption for seniors, then you will only help your case. They are the most likely voting group of all voters.