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“Dinero Diablos” Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics April 21, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson Founder and Managing Partner – www.manifestinvesting.com.

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Presentation on theme: "“Dinero Diablos” Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics April 21, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson Founder and Managing Partner – www.manifestinvesting.com."— Presentation transcript:

1 “Dinero Diablos” Portfolio Analysis: Dashboard Diagnostics April 21, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson Founder and Managing Partner – www.manifestinvesting.com

2 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 2 Club History & Characteristics Club Name: “Dinero Diablos” Location: Northern California # of Members: 16 (All-Male) Founded: TBD The club uses a set of rules for selling: (1) Sell Zone, (2) Sales/EPS stagnant 3-4 quarters, (3) U/D = 1, (4) Relative Value > 150%, (5) <5-7% Total Return, (6) Down trends in margins, (7) Stock price decline for no apparent reason. Simplify. Treat decisions from a total portfolio perspective. Core holdings: Sell if PAR is less than money market rates. Non-Core holdings: Sell if PAR is less than market average.

3 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 3 Dashboard View: (1) Returns, (2) Quality, (3) Growth

4 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 4 Sector Diversification

5 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 5

6 6 Position Size Range Recommendations …

7 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 7

8 8 Challenge: EZCORP (EZPW)... Auto-Sell?

9 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 9 Summary (Points of View): EZCORP (EZPW) MANIFESTValue LineS&PMorningstar Return Forecast1.6% ($22.70)-1% [1] ($17.75) Quality59.3B Financial Strength57 (5% of Capital @ 6.22%) B++A Growth Forecast14%8.5% (per sh) Profitability11.9% (Net) 14.6% (ROE) 12.9% (Net) Valuation10.0x 10.7x ($17.70) Overall RatingWeak Hold (48) StockCharts RSI = 65.9 PnF Sentiment: “Bullish” (Price Objective: $24) CASPI = 97.8% April 21, 2010 [1] – Low VL 3-5 Year Forecast StockCharts RSI = 65.9 PnF Sentiment: “Bullish” (Price Objective: $24) CASPI = 97.8% April 21, 2010 [1] – Low VL 3-5 Year Forecast

10 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 10 Sales Growth & 5-Year Forecast (EZPW) 1. We’ve added 2010E and 2011E (ACE). 2. Note the “bends”, lower expectations for 2011... Cycle characteristics? 3. Note the shift in shares outstanding in 2009.

11 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 11 Sales Growth & 5-Year Forecast (EZPW) 1. Switching to Sales/share. 2. 5-Year historical growth aligns with VL. 3. VL forecasts a decline to 8.5% (influence of 2011?)

12 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 12 % Net Margin Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast (EZPW)

13 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 13 Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast (EZPW)

14 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 14 Valuation Characteristic and Trend (EZPW) A projected average P/E in the realm of 10x seems pretty reasonable. 10 Years 5 Years

15 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 15 [Modified] Preferred Procedure (EZPW) Sales (Trailing 12-Mo)673 X Net Margin (%)11.9% / Shares (M)48.7 Earnings Per Share$1.65 X P/E Ratio13.8x Stock Price (4/20/2010)$22.70 Income Statement (4/21/2010) Income Statement (4/21/2015) Sales1268 X Net Margin (%) 12% / Shares (M)52.0 Earnings Per Share $2.93 X P/E Ratio (Proj Avg) 10.0x Stock Price$29.30 @ 13.5% 5.2% + 0.0% (Ann. Yield) 5.2% = Projected Annual Return (PAR)

16 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 16 Technical Analysis (EZPW) Institutions hold 78.9% of shares A single individual holds 100% of voting shares.

17 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 17 Ask the Audience: Would you sell EZPW? Yes, Sell! No. Hold, I feel lots of momentum with this one.

18 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 18 Any holdings qualified as accumulation targets?

19 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 19 Accumulation Candidate: FTI Consulting (FCN) Growth=11% Profitability=10% P/E=18x... PAR ~20% QR=74.7

20 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 20 Accumulation Candidate: ITT Educational (ESI) Growth=16% Profitability=21% P/E=17x... PAR ~19% QR=78.5

21 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 21 Add 100 shares of FCN and 40 shares of ESI...

22 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 22

23 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 23 Sold EZPW, Added ESI & FCN... And Bought ORCL

24 Dashboard Diagnostics: Dinero Diablos 24 Think Results. Impact. Before and After. Bigger Picture. Before.After. Converting the challenge stock to cash and accumulating a couple of high-return (high-quality) holdings with some non-healthcare shopping nudges the portfolio in the right direction.


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