4/21/2017 Hydrologic and Social Analyses for Anticipating Water Stress and Potential for Conflict Business Plan for Military Engineering This proposal.

4/21/2017 Hydrologic and Social Analyses for Anticipating Water Stress and Potential for Conflict Business Plan for Military Engineering This proposal is a collection of ideas from several sources. It was born from ongoing reimbursable work in both hydrologic and social analyses, but picked up momentum at the ME Big Idea workshop in Arlington. It combines two areas in which we already have significant capabilities and customers. This is a mix of some well-defined improvements to existing technologies and a less certain coupling of these technologies to produce a leap-ahead product.

Water Security For this proposal, water security includes:
4/21/2017 Water Security For this proposal, water security includes: Predicting and mitigating (as possible) floods and droughts Sustainable development of water resources, both surface water and groundwater Safeguarding of water functions and services for humans and the environment Our goal is not to solve the world’s water problems, but to give Army/DoD/US Intelligence advance warning of water resource crises and their likely social consequences. A water security issue is; a shortage of water of adequate quality, or, 2) in excess leading to flooding, which is caused by natural or manmade activities and whose consequences conflict with the US Government's national security objectives in a region.

4/21/2017 Target Problem Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict and wars in the future. Kofi Annan, March 2001. “over the last sixty years at least forty percent of all intrastate conflicts have a link to natural resources” UNEP, 2009 “But the water problems of our world need not be only a cause of tension; they can also be a catalyst for cooperation ... If we work together, a secure and sustainable water future can be ours.” Kofi Annan, January 2002 …The water crisis is a health crisis, it’s a farming crisis, it’s an economic crisis, it’s a climate crisis, and increasingly, it is a political crisis. And therefore, we must have an equally comprehensive response.” Hillary Clinton, March 2011. “ Our target problem is not just water, but the discord that comes from too much or too little of it. We aren’t silly enough to think we’ll solve, say Africa’s water resource problems. Our goal is to give Army/DoD/US Intelligence advance warning of water resource crises and the likely social consequences. International conflict and mass migrations often arise from water resources troubles. The US military and its allies can better respond if we can anticipate these problems with more certainty.

“Avoiding Water Wars: Water Scarcity and Central Asia’s Growing Importance for Stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan” Committee on Foreign Relations, US Senate, Feb 2011 In Central and South Asia, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the impacts of water scarcity are fueling dangerous tensions that will have repercussions for regional stability and U.S. foreign policy objectives. The national security implications of this looming water shortage—directly caused or aggravated by agriculture demands, hydroelectric power generation, and climate instability—will be felt all over the world. … the United States should support efforts in Central and South Asia to model changes to water flow and volume for entire river basins across a range of scenarios, from the impacts of climate change to the construction of dams. Understanding these impacts, … will help governments make more informed decisions on water management. Today, most of these basins only have studies on the outcomes of individual projects, rather than the cumulative impact of multiple projects. … The United States should support the development of basin-level water modeling and scenario analysis … Basin-wide modeling is also useful for addressing tensions over hydroelectric dam proposals that continue to agitate countries sharing rivers. For the major dam proposals … there is still no independent analysis of the cumulative impact these projects will have on water flow. … The impact of our actions to address water extends far beyond a country’s border, as water transcends political boundaries.

4/21/2017 Target Problem “The United States will continue working with African partners to help foster stability and prosperity throughout the continent. The need to assist fragile, post- conflict states, … failed states, … and transnational problems, including extremism, piracy, illegal fishing, and narcotics trafficking, pose significant challenges. America’s efforts will hinge on partnering with African states, other international allies and partners ... to conduct capacity-building and peacekeeping operations, prevent extremism, and address humanitarian crises.” “… prevent and deter conflict …” “Build the security capacity of partner states.” “Climate change will contribute to food and water scarcity.” QDR, Feb 2010 “The USG is not investing adequately in the development of social and behavioral science information that is critically important for COIN. It is the Task Force’s belief that a… strategic [Indicators & Warnings] model can be designed for COIN. This model would need new and different ISR requirements; a clear understanding of the environment critical to determining causes/origins of problem(s); and the addition of social sciences to the physical sciences.” Defense Science Board, May 2011. main public document describing the United States's military doctrine. Map shows areas of the world with water use stress Quote Source: Final Report of the Defense Science Board (DSB) Task Force on Defense Intelligence - Counterinsurgency (COIN) Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Operations. (preface, p. 18)

Target Problem Chief of Staff of the Army requested daily updates on the Indus River situation in Pakistan – it took 3 weeks to develop and run the flood model – we should be able to produce results in 3-4 days or less. SOUTHCOM requested inundation maps after the earthquake in Haiti – it took 3 weeks to develop those maps – we should be able to produce results in 3-4 days CENTCOM has asked for a hydrology model of Afghanistan. At present it would take one year and $600K to produce – we should be able to do this in 1 month for $50K SOUTHCOM has asked for a multi-nation hydrology model in South America. For a given inundation scenario, we have no real way to identify population responses and inform mitigation or contingency planning Unable to assess impact of future development on water resources in critical regions and anticipate increased unrest and likelihood of conflict Current headlines 7/01/2011 – A severe drought in the Horn of Africa—which includes Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti—is affecting almost nine million people, causing widespread hunger in the region while stripping local farmers of their livelihood [United Nations’ World Food Program]

Current ERDC Modeling Capabilities
Model Class ERDC Involvement Verification, Validation, Accreditation (VV&A) Status Examples ERDC Experience Lab Developed Applied (EQI/CW context) Applied (ME context) Human Geography Green Yellow Orange GCAT, GCO-IES, Social Vulnerability Index TEC, CERL 1D Inundation Sava River, Han River CHL 2D Inundation Haiti, Pakistan studies CHL,ITL Water Resource Management (catchment) Kandahar, Herbert Hoover Dike, Coon River studies CHL, CRREL, ITL, EL Water Resource Management (basin) Red Pakistan, South Florida studies, Haiti Land Use LEAM, mLEAM CERL Macro-Economic Shift-share, input-output, social accounting matrix, value chain (Vu), cumulative effects assessment Micro-Economic Honduras Food Security, Cultural Geography Model Social Network Cultural Geography Model Dynamic System USSOCOM IATF (Stability, Drug Trafficking, Major Influencers) using Stella, NetLogo Water Sustainability Assessment SIRRA, CMO-HEI TEC, CERL, CHL Strong Medium Limited Weak GCAT: GeoCultural Analysis Tool (time-geographic representation of population groups) GCO-IES: GeoCultural Ontology – Infrastructure and Essential Services (Builds from GCAT) LEAM: Land-Use Evolution and Assessment Model mLEAM: military Land-Use Evolution and Assessment Model USSOCOM IATF: U.S. Special Operations Command – InterAgency Task Force SIRRA: Sustainable Installations Regional Resource Assessment CMO-HEI: Civil-Military Operations – Human Environment Interaction EQI: Environmental Quality and Installations ME: Military Engineering

Example Modeling Scenarios
Dam-failure scenario: A dam is known to be suffering subsidence placing the dam and downstream people and buildings at risk. Hydrologic modeling enables forecasting inundation under dam-failure. Human-geographic analyses identifies the most vulnerable populations (groups for whom the failure may be catastrophic), the conditions under which the failure is more/less catastrophic, enabling mitigation and contingency planning. Land-Use modeling and analyses facilitates identifying plausible futures for the region. Macro-economic modeling and analyses supports understanding viable land uses under scenarios and cascading the impacts across the region. Dynamic system and/or social network modeling facilitates interpreting and forecasting roles and responses of key stakeholders in mitigation and contingency planning. Economic development scenario: a region is anticipated to undergo significant development, placing greater demand on the water resources. Water sustainability assessment helps identify regions where this could be a significant concern. hydrologic modeling enables forecasting water shortages under possible futures. Land-Use modeling and analyses facilitates identifying plausible futures for sub-country regions. Macro-economic modeling and analyses supports understanding viable land uses under those futures and cascading the impacts across the region.

4/21/2017 Mission Statement At the heart of DoD’s mission lies military readiness, which includes anticipating conditions and their consequences. Our mission is to improve the scientific support for decisions to be made on issues of water resources. Surprise is not good for the Army. Some conflicts aren’t as easily predicted. "It [Egypt] has taken not just us but many people by surprise" Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Other conflicts, such as those over cross-border water supplies or mass migration due to drought or flood, can be anticipated and contingencies assembled. Advance warning about potential or impending water resources problems will allow the US and its allies to defuse potential conflicts or, at least, prepare for them. Accurate characterization of water stressors and instability will be increasingly important for Phase 0 Theater Campaign planning. Phase 0: Shape: Joint and multinational operations. inclusive of normal and routine military activities and various interagency activities are performed to dissuade or deter potential adversaries and to assure or solidify relationships with friends and allies. They are executed continuously with the intent to enhance international legitimacy and gain multinational cooperation in support of defined military and national strategic objectives. They are designed to assure success by shaping perceptions and influencing the behavior of both adversaries and allies, developing allied and friendly military capabilities for self defense and coalition operations, improving information exchange and intelligence sharing, and providing US forces with peacetime and contingency access. .Shape phase activities must adapt to a particular theater environment and may be executed in one theater in order to create effects and/or achieve objectives in another.

COCOM Requirements Among the USACE Military Missions is COCOM support (Robert Slockbower, SES, Director of Military Programs) Following are excerpts from a COCOM survey on the issue of water security PACOM – COCOM’s should consider transboundary water security threats as they develop their Theater Campaign Plans. Upstream development can have serious negative impacts on downstream developing countries’ navigation, fisheries, irrigation, etc, potentially leading to conflict if cooperative arrangements/mechanisms are not in place to mitigate impacts. EUCOM – Paul Simon Water for the Poor Act requires Dept of State to develop and implement a strategy for water issues. AFRICOM – OSD should assist with integrating water security issues into Theater Campaign Plans and other policies.

Warfighter Outcomes Following are excerpts from the FY12 Warfighter Outcomes to Guide Science and Technology Tier 2: (Int-4) Data-to-Decision (Processing, Exploitation and Dissemination) - The Future Force requires the capability to sufficiently manage the processing and exploitation of all relevant collected data and provide real time support to commanders' situational awareness and situational understanding and the common operational picture (COP). This capability includes software-enabled automated information synthesis to tag, process, and transform data rapidly and accurately into usable knowledge, across a wide range of subjects from military logistics to culture and economics. Tier 3: (S-11) Provide Water - The Future Force requires the ability to purify water from all sources, produce potable water from atmosphere and/or exhaust to minimize/eliminate its transportation and storage, and provide rapid and field expedient testing capability for Soldiers to ensure no contaminates or biological growths are present.

Purpose and Objectives
4/21/2017 Purpose and Objectives Provide the US Army the tools it needs to Anticipate and mitigate/defuse conflicts or social upheaval resulting from water resource crises Prepare adequately for natural disasters involving flood or drought Rapidly assist in disaster relief operations Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver capabilities in a form usable by COCOM planners, Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (MCIA), National Geospatial Agency, DoS, USAID, others COCOMs are interested in the manifestation of instability in conflict and social upheaval that threaten the ability of governments to govern and thus present a U.S. national security issue.

4/21/2017 Business Concept Mission: The DoD’s missions include anticipating and avoiding conflicts and providing support for disaster relief. These missions are rife with resource allocation decisions that must be supported by our best science. Competitive Advantage: ERDC’s competitive advantage comes from its status as a world leader in hydrologic analysis, its socio-cultural expertise and a history of providing military engineering products usable by the field, which makes us uniquely qualified to lead this mission. Reimbursable Base: Currently, ERDC is responsible for a growing reimbursable/reachback business in hydrologic analysis for planning and operations. To date, customers have requested studies on flooding in Pakistan and Haiti, dambreak and flood mapping in Afghanistan and Iraq, and basin-scale, multi-national hydrologic evaluations in Africa. Customers include Intelligence Agencies (MCIA, NGA) US State Department COCOMs (EUCOM, CENTCOM, SOUTHCOM, AFRICOM, PACOM) MCIA (27 products: Tajikistan, Azerbjain), NGA (?) Long-term applications may also include the effects of land use changes to counternarcotic operations,

Competition Several entities are performing hydrologic analyses, but most are at a local or regional scale. It is reasonably common, particularly in the U.S., to consider the social impacts of a particular hydrologic change in a drainage basin (e.g., social impact analysis for dam construction). Using coupled analysis of hydrologic change and resulting social consequences, as a means of anticipating sources of conflict, is novel. Some organizations conduct hydrologic studies at a multi-nation level University of Texas, the United Nations, and UNESCO conducted a study on a Water Budget for Africa, focused more on supply than conflict United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization has several programs aimed at assessing and improving groundwater and surface water management and encouraging low-water-use crops Stanford University’s Woods Institute for the Environment is conducting the Global Freshwater Initiative which seeks to build policy evaluation models that account for both hydrologic processes and economic behavior NASA is increasing its support to USAID and Department of State for water resource related topics

Goals and Objectives The project’s four year goals are:
Phase I: Deliver tools for basin-to-regional scale hydrologic predictions in a form usable by COCOM planners, MCIA, DoS, and ERDC S&Es through the USACE Reachback Operations Center (UROC). Phase II: Provide tools that can represent the social consequences resulting from 'what-if' hydrologic scenarios. Phase III: Build a model-coupling framework to estimate the likelihood of conflict and social upheaval occurring as a result of the complex interaction between hydrologic change and social processes. Demonstrate this capability on one or more basins, understanding that local tuning or adaptation may be required for general use. The objectives for achieving our four-year goals are: Deliver decision support and simulation tools into the hands of COCOM planners and intelligence agencies Create steady income >$1.5M/yr by extending capabilities of the UROC

Cross-border Water Resources
Changes in use or availability of cross- border water resources can create instability, particularly if those changes result in, or exacerbate shifts in population across borders The Niger River Basin

Flood Predictions Pakistan Haiti
Predicting floods and their human consequences can alert the Army to deploy support for disaster relief and prepare for mass migration Pakistan Haiti

Watershed and Riverine Analysis
Watershed and riverine analyses are used now, and will continue to be, vital parts of complete battlefield understanding. These analyses are done to address short-term scenarios. Analyzing longer-term (5-20 year) consequences of basin- or regional-level changes in water supply or demand (dam construction or removal, reservoir sedimentation) is essential for assessing water security. Helmand River Basin, Afghanistan

The Team Hydrologic Modeling and Analysis
4/21/2017 The Team Hydrologic Modeling and Analysis Dr. Mark Jourdan, CHL, product scope and design Dr. Chuck Downer, CHL, distributed hydrologic modeling Dr. Matthew Farthing, CHL, multi-scale modeling, knowledge extraction Dr. Stacy Howington, CHL, surface/groundwater analysis, model interfaces Mr. John Eylander, CRREL, weather/climate scenarios Socio-Cultural Modeling and Analysis Dr. Susan Enscore, CERL, cultural and historic geographical analysis Dr. Lucy Whalley, CERL, socio-cultural anthropological analysis Mr. Tim Perkins, CERL, socio-cultural dynamics modeling Integration and Tool Interfaces Mr. Dave Richards, ITL, data-to-information, product delivery Others TBD (decision support, risk analysis, reduced-order modeling) The list of team members will evolve as the scope is refined.

Reimbursable Customers
US State Department US Intelligence Agencies MCIA, NGA, DIA, CIA COCOMs EUCOM, AFRICOM, CENTCOM, PACOM, SOUTHCOM Significant reimbursable opportunities on both the military and civil works sides of ERDC

Tiers of Customers Tier Customer Value 1 3 Current MCIA, NGA, COCOMs
Current reimbursable work 1 State Department Potential for work supporting disaster relief and development (Simon Water Act) 3 Other Intelligence Agencies (CIA, DIA) Potential for classified work Ft. Huachuca – Intelligence Battle Lab Evaluates and refines tools and methods to support intelligence analysts Department of Homeland Security Civil Agencies (including USACE) CONUS applications US Army Reserve Security Cooperation Teams US Army Active Security Cooperation Teams US Army Staff, G3/5/7 Joint Staff, J3 (Operations) COCOM planners (AFRICOM is most pressing) Long-range forecasting; What-if scenarios for projected weather impacts

Technology Transfer Two levels of transition:
Data products and analyses: Intelligence agencies like MCIA [Jim Hill is already funding watershed analyses] can, through the UROC, gain access to the capabilities and databases to be developed. Software toolbox: COCOM planners, State Department, intelligence agencies and other DoD scientists and engineers will have the option of defining specific scenarios and performing high-level simulations themselves using a series of simple, (likely) web-based, GIS interfaces.

Support BG DeLuca (NAD) leads USACE support for AFRICOM and has promised cooperation and support. Other support will be gathered from AFRICOM, MCIA, etc. MCIA’s initial reactions: Important work and people will want it Must focus on specific basins/locations to show capability Must deliver on a short timeframe (COCOM commanders think on a 2- year timeframe). Break down into incremental products. Won’t be able to pre-compute all scenarios. Must speed up model setup and execution to be useful. Must be clear that this is not a general tool and will require some local tweaking (especially socio-cultural) Should include groundwater and effects of aquifer decline Not clear what’s in the software package for people to run on their own?

4/21/2017 Financial Plan This effort targets needs in conflict avoidance, capacity building, and disaster preparedness. The existence of a small, but vibrant reimbursable base in both ERDC’s hydrologic and cultural analysis areas suggests a strong future demand for a combined capability. The tools and capabilities to be built through this project have a high probability of dual-use. Funding Targets FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Total Direct ($M) 0.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 9.5 Reimbursable ($M) 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.0 4.0 13.0 Socio-cultural modeling OSD Human, Social, Cultural Behavior Program (funds approx $30M research)- SOCOM - Civil Information Management - Data Processing System Hydrologic MCIA $380K, every fy NGA $150K, every fy AFRICOM $200K, next fy EUCOM $150K, next fy Other UROC $300K, every fy

Approach / Milestones TASK NAME FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Advance Existing Socio-Cultural Models Adapt current models to apply in regions of interest (e.g. AFRICOM) Extend socio-cultural models to include hydrologic forcing Advance Existing Hydrologic Modeling Capabilities Create and ingest long-range, regional scale weather products Couple simulations of different scales and complexity Automate and accelerate model construction in data-sparse environments Integrate Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analysis Capabilities Make socio-cultural predictions based on multiple hydrologic forecasts Evolve hydrologic predictions based on population or land-use changes Modeling Environments and Decision Support Extend graphical interfaces for analysis tools Build scenario generation tools Build decision support tools on reduced order models and database mining Conduct demonstrations and outreach to target customers in DoD AFRICOM, EUCOM, SOUTHCOM, PACOM assist in choosing sites Demonstrate coupled hydrologic and socio-cultural modeling - Milestones For the continuing project briefing highlight the tasks performed to date. Must include milestones and completion dates per task as given in P2. Format is flexible, can use Excel table or Microsoft Project (example above). Gant Chart format is preferred (Use the P2 structure).

Joint Doctrine Applies Phasing to Campaign Planning
Phase 0 – Shape – Prevent/Prepare. Joint and multinational operations are performed to dissuade or deter potential adversaries and to assure or solidify relationships with friends and allies. They are designed to assure success by shaping perceptions and influencing the behavior of both adversaries and allies, … improving information exchange and intelligence sharing, and providing US forces with peacetime and contingency access. Shape phase activities must adapt to a particular theater environment and may be executed in one theater in order to create effects and/or achieve objectives in another. Current examples of Phase 0: Djibouti, Somalia, Korea During Phase 0, Regional Combatant Commanders use the military element of national power to assess and monitor the area of operations (AO), engage as a partner with Militaries of other nations, and assure capacity is there in case of natural disaster or instability. Due to CENTCOM’s operations, there is much pent-up demand for assistance in most other Regional Combatant Commands.

Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analyses for Anticipating Water Stress and Potential for Conflict
Status: New Purpose: Improve capability to understand and forecast risks to national security as a result of hydrologically-related events. Anticipate social consequences that may increase conflict or provide room to maneuver for extremist organizations Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners. Products: Next generation hydrology models that can: Identify inundated areas in days. Execute over very large domains. Next generation land use and macro-economic models that can: Forecast plausible futures at sub-national levels in OCONUS. Incorporate non-U.S. development and planning processes. Integrate diverse, non-standard demographic data. Coupled hydrology & social-cultural models that can: Identify groups significantly impacted by hydrological scenarios. Identify hydrological consequences of social and cultural change. Explore complex, adaptive interactions between water and society. Payoff: Quicker response, more complete representation for disaster relief. Ability to forecast changes in water supply / demand that allows the Army, COCOMs and intelligence agencies to include these factors in security policies and strategies. Improved ability to prioritize detailed analyses and contingency planning for water-security crises, based on social and cultural impacts. Schedule & Cost MILESTONES FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Coupled hydrology social-cultural Next-Gen Hydrology Next-Gen land use and macro-economic models AT40 0.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 2 5 3 5 3 5 Total: $9.5M 27 Unclassified / FOUO Reordered the tasks in the milestone chart – it seems like we want to first identify the appropriate coupling between hydrological and social modeling, begin pursuing that, then determine what improvements/changes are needed to enable that from the hydrological / social models… Given the focus of the proposal is at the confluence of these, communicating the tasks in this fashion may better reflect the WP objective.

Timeline for Theater Security Cooperation to Sustained Execution
(Need for Research Product)

Extra Slides

National Security Strategy “excerpt”
…Africa – Our Nation continues to embrace effective partnerships in Africa. The United Nations and African Union play a critical role in humanitarian, peacekeeping and capacity-building efforts, which help preserve stability, facilitate resolutions to political tensions that underlie conflicts, and foster broader development. To support this, the Joint Force will continue to build partner capacity in Africa, focusing on critical states where the threat of terrorism could pose a threat to our homeland and interests. We will continue to counter violent extremism in the Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia and the Trans-Sahel. We will work in other areas to help reduce the security threat to innocent civilians. We must identify and encourage states and regional organizations that have demonstrated a leadership role to continue to contribute to Africa's security. We will help facilitate the African Union’s and the Regional Economic Communities’ development of their military capacity, including the African Stand-by Force, to address the continents many security challenges.

Phase 0 current associated “buzz-words”
Prevent/prepare Non-lethal targeting (money, food, water) More carrot, less stick (Clinton administration policy carry-over) Key-leader engagement “Whole of Government” approach Effects-based operations Security cooperation line of operation

4/21/2017 Metrics Summary Presently, it may take weeks to provide hydrologic assessment of disasters. ERDC has been asked to provide large scale hydrologic predictions that tax current capabilities. Future performance metrics Disaster analysis in 10% of the time it takes at present. Large scale hydrology, which includes supply and demand functions, provided in a timely fashion Socio-cultural impact assessment possible and provided in a timely fashion Definition of Metrics Definition: Metrics are a set of measurements that quantify results. Performance metrics quantify the units performance. Project metrics tell you whether the project is meeting its goals. Business metrics define the business' progress in measurable terms.

Key Issues Near-term (Current FY) Long-term
Integrating hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis efforts Lack of available data for validation Long-term Developing workable framework for simulation across range of scales with varying levels of fidelity Delivering model predictions with risk assessment and uncertainty quantification in a useful way for customers Develop relationship with customer base outside DoA (e.g., DoS, USAID, DHS) First two are key technical issues which must be resolved. Third impacts our ability to build larger customer base for reimbursables.

Summary of Current Socio-cultural Modeling Capability
ERDC has an interdisciplinary team (anthropology, archaeology, ecology, geography, political science, sociology, urban & regional analysis & planning, etc.) with experience in analysis and modeling of social and cultural dynamics and population ecosystems. We have access and experience with a broad range of existing tools and methods for developing socio-cultural models (both tailored for individualized situations, and for reusable generalized tools). Defining specific COCOM-related hydrologically-concerned challenges will provide a basis upon which to conduct necessary cross-country comparative analyses upon which to develop an exploratory and forecasting model.

Workflow for Reachback/Reimbursable Support
Customer Request Database of pre-computed scenarios Land use (clear cutting, crop changes) Are relevant simulations in the database? Basin(s) of interest N Build Specific Simulation Scenarios Other Water Demands Y ERDC or other Army S&E Population statistics (current, projected, or what-if) Weather conditions (historical, predicted, or what-if) Compare against recent history? Data Gathering from Multiple Sources ERDC Decision Support Tools ERDC Hydrologic Simulators Explore alternatives, including risk Extract Knowledge from Raw Simulation Results ERDC Socio-Cultural Simulators

Coupling Hydrologic and Social Analyses for Water Security
Purpose: This project will leverage ERDC hydrologic capabilities and apply them to water security in areas of potential conflict. Coordination with DoS, USAID and others would be required to fully realize the payoff of this effort. Program Provides: Knowledge of the regional hydrologic systems allows the DoD anticipate or avoid conflicts between countries. This has immediate application to AFRICOM/CENTCOM. ERDC’s expertise in military operations and hydraulic processes makes us uniquely qualified to lead in solving this important problem. Expectations: The technology solution for this effort can be developed in the near term; however, extensive interagency collaboration must be performed to transition from a technology solution to an acceptable application. Current reimbursables with MCIA and others are tapping only limited functionality, but provide a good model for future site-specific projects. Funding Targets FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Total Direct ($M) 0.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 9.5 Reimbursable ($M) 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.0 4.0 13.0 Business Plan

SWOT Analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats)
ERDC’s position as a leader in both hydrologic analysis and military engineering areas creates an opportunity for leadership Weaknesses Delivering science-based products in a format that the field will adopt is always a challenge Opportunities This work could open the door for large-scale inclusion of science into DoD’s contingency planning process Provide capabilities to Districts/Divisions Provide a pipeline for transition of 6.2 technologies to the Army/DoD/other federal agencies Threats Other agencies building competing tools

Red Ocean Versus Blue Ocean Strategy
4/21/2017 Red Ocean Versus Blue Ocean Strategy In the red ocean, differentiation costs because firms compete with the same best-practice principle. Here, the strategic choices for firms are to pursue either differentiation or low cost. In the Blue Ocean world, however, the strategic aim is to create new best-practice rules by breaking the existing value-cost trade-off and thereby creating a Blue Ocean opportunity. Red Ocean Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Compete in existing market space. Create uncontested market space. Beat the competition. Make the competition irrelevant. Exploit existing demand. Create and capture new demand. Make the value-cost trade-off. Break the value-cost trade-off. Align the whole system of a firm’s activities with its strategic choice of differentiation or low cost. Align the whole system of a firm’s activities in pursuit of differentiation and low cost.

4/21/2017 Hydrologic and Social Analyses for Anticipating Water Stress and Potential for Conflict Business Plan for Military Engineering This proposal.

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "4/21/2017 Hydrologic and Social Analyses for Anticipating Water Stress and Potential for Conflict Business Plan for Military Engineering This proposal."— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback

Log in

Auth with social network:

4/21/2017 Hydrologic and Social Analyses for Anticipating Water Stress and Potential for Conflict Business Plan for Military Engineering This proposal.

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "4/21/2017 Hydrologic and Social Analyses for Anticipating Water Stress and Potential for Conflict Business Plan for Military Engineering This proposal."— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback