1. Stefan Bringezu Director Research Group Material Flows & Resource Management Research foresight for Environment and Sustainability Workshop on mega-trends and surprises EEA, Copenhagen, 14-15 May 2007 Environmentally important mega-trends

2. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Megatrends  Decoupling of economic growth and direct material and energy use (efficiency) in all countries although with different rate  Increasing global resource use and environmental impacts mainly through growth in DCs and TCs  EU shifts resource supply and environmental impacts to other regions like other old-industrial countries, while improving domestic environmental quality

3. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007  Decoupling of economic growth and direct material and energy use (efficiency) in all countries although with different rate  Increasing global resource use and environmental impacts mainly through growth in DCs and TCs  EU shifts resource supply and environmental impacts to other regions like other old-industrial countries, while improving domestic environmental quality Megatrends

4. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Decoupling of resource use and environmental pressures Source: Eurostat NewCronos online database (GDP, energy, greenhouse gas emissions); van der Voet et al. 2004 (EMC); Eurostat/IFF 2004 (DMC); see also EEA Report no. 9/2005: Figure 3.3, p.20 EU15

5. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Decoupling aggregate material use and GDP Source: EEA report 4/2005 0647e Technological progress needs time: Given a certain rate of increase of material productivity (GDP/material use) relative decoupling is higher with lower rates of economic growth GDP growth p.a.: 2.3 % (EU15), 3.5 % (EU-10)GDP growth p.a.: 1.6 % (EU15), 3.2 % (EU-10)

6. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007  Decoupling of economic growth and direct material and energy use (efficiency) in all countries although with different rate  Increasing global resource use and environmental impacts mainly through growth in DCs and TCs  EU shifts resource supply and environmental impacts to other regions like other old-industrial countries, while improving domestic environmental quality Megatrends

7. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Worldwide used extraction of resources MOSUS Baseline scenario Source: SERI; Giljum et al. 2007

8. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Total material requirement and economic growth 1 1 TMR per cap. in t Source: different sources and Bringezu and Schütz 2001

9. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007  Decoupling of economic growth and direct material and energy use (efficiency) in all countries although with different rate  Increasing global resource use and environmental impacts mainly through growth in DCs and TCs  EU shifts resource supply and environmental impacts to other regions I. mineral supply: geology, technology and market driven II. shifting impacts: III. biomass supply: Megatrends (environmental) policy driven 

10. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 The EU has a growing net demand of foreign resources PTB absolute PTB of HF PTB of TMR trade Million tonnes Source: Schütz et al. 2003 Physical trade balance of EU-15 considering hidden flows of imports and exports

11. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 EC/ EU imports from developing countries  The EU induces growing Ecological Rucksacks (Hidden Flows) in other regions of the world Source: Schütz et al. 2003

12. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Resource-intensive imports from “Anchor countries”- MOSUS baseline EU-25 Resource intensive imports will increase Source: SERI; Giljum et al. 2007

13. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Ever decreasing ore grades are going to be used Source: U. Dorner after PreConsultants 2002

14. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Environmental Impact of Copper Mine Ok Tedi Mine, Papua New Guinea These images show environmental impact of the mine 1990: Both the mine and township of Tabubil, are clearly visible 2004: Raised river beds, forest damage and decline in biodiversity are some impacts

15. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Shifting problems: the case of Platinum Group Metals * Assumptions: 1.4-2 L cylinder capacity, Euro III, 3.5 g PGM / car, 100 000 km / car during lifetime, -1.8 g NO x / km, -0.07 g CH 4 / km, +1 g CO 2 / km The use of primary PGM in Europe implies: extremely high SO 2 emissions in Siberia (outdated technology for the smelting process) high CO 2 emissions in South Africa (92 % of power generation from coal) extreme amounts of TMR and related mining waste For the production of 1 t primary PGM 1800 t SO 2eq emissions 23 450 t CO 2eq emissions 388 600 t TMR eq … occur concentrated in other regions Source: Mathieu Saurat and Stefan Bringezu 1 t primary PGM used in car catalysts* would help to avoid 51 400 t NO x 36 000 t SO 2eq 2000 t CH 4 (28 600 t CO 2eq ) 17 400 t CO 2eq … diffusely emitted in Europe equivalent to + increased fuel cons. net effect

16. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Global land use for consumption of agricultural goods in 1.000 m 2 /cap Source: Bringezu 2005 / Steger 2005

17. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Scenarios for biofuels and land use Additional land requirements (in 1000 m2/cap) for biofuels add to the exceedance of global land use availability. A significant reduction of animal based food could provide room for the production of non-food crops (in 1000 m²/cap). Source: Bringezu 2005 / Steger 2005 If the EU uses 18% biofuels in 2030, it will have fuelled up nearly total of its „fair share“ of all natural grasslands and savannas

18. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Conversion of forests into palm plantations in Papua, Indonesia 1990: a new human presence, earth colored roads provide access to the forest 2000: rectilinear patterns cover 10,000 ha 2002: Cleared area nearly doubles since 2000

19. Stefan Bringezu | www.wupperinst.org | Research Foresight 15-05-2007 Conclusions We need more information on  the EU´s global resource use - material resources - land use  shifts of burden to regions outside the EU - environmental impacts - socio-economic implications - security issues  potentials for absolute reduction and a more balanced pattern of domestic and foreign resource use