1. The world's bioenergy potential in the context of global food and farming trends Fridolin Krausmann Based on research by H. Haberl, K.H. Erb, C. Lauk, C. Plutzar, J. K. Steinberger, C. Müller, A. Bondeau et.al. Institute for Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria Universität Potsdam Institut for Climate Impact Reasearch – PIK Potsdam

2. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Project „Feeding and fuelling the world 2050“ Goals: –Understanding the interrelations between diet patterns, agriculture, bioenergy and climate change. (Deforestation was not considered!) –Exploring the possibilities to meet global food demand in 2050 under different assumptions on Dietary patterns Expansion of cropland Changes in land use intensity/agricultural yields Changes in intensity and efficiency of livestock production systems Climate change –Quantification of bioenergy potentials in 2050 We acknowledge the funding of this research by: FWF – Austrian Science Fund, Compassion in World Farming, Friends of the Earth, UK

3. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Eleven World Regions

4. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Socio-ecological Characteristica of Worldregions

5. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Biomass use (per capita) 2000

6. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Solid empirical database for 2000: Three consistent datasets Land use: Consistency between pixels (5 min, 10x10 km) and statistical data at country level (cropland and woodlands according to FAO, FRA und TBFRA). Erb et al. 2007. J. Land Use Sci. 2, 191-224 Biomass balances at country level: Production and consumption of biomass by type (ca. 160 countries): Feed balances, processing losses, trade, trends 1960-2000. Krausmann et al. 2008. Ecol. Econ. 65, 471-487. HANPP: Global human appropriation of NPP, potential and actual NPP und Biomass harvest (5 min, 10x10 km) based on land use data set, FAO statistics and DGVM- Modellierung (LPJmL). Haberl et al., 2007. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104, 12942-12947.

7. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Biomass-Balance Modell From final demand to land requirements - Crop products, forage and grazed biomass - Balance of supply and demand - Regional deficits balanced by trade - Evaluation of global balance

8. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Diet patterns in 2000 and four scenarios for 2050

9. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 FAO Prognosis: Crop production 1960-2050 FAO 2006, World agriculture towards 2030/2050, Rome.

10. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Scenarios of cropland expansion 2050

11. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Crop yields 1960 to 2050: Three scenarios FAOOrganicIntermediate

12. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Mix of livestock production systems 2000 und 2050

13. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Conversion efficiencies livestock system 1960-2050 Ruminants Monogastric

14. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Calculation of Bioenergy Potential (Primary biomass!) Bioenergy from cropland: –In case „free“ cropland is available: Bioenergypotential = potential aboveground NPP. –In case the demand for crop products exceeds supply by less than 5%: „negativ“ bioenergy potential is subtracted from the potential available on grassland. Bioenergy from grassland: –Best grassland (category 1 out of four) is used more intensively. –Grassland area in category 1 which becomes available by this measure is used for bioenergy production (aboveground NPP of act. vegetation). Bioenergy from crops residues: –Requirements for feeding livestock and bedding are subtracted from available production. –50% of the reminder can be used for bioenergy production

15. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Climate Impacts for Cropland Productivity (calculated with LPJmL)

16. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Results: Feasibility Analysis Probably feasible Feasible Highly feasible Not feasible -

17. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Bioenergy potential 2050 in relation to diet assumptions (44 feasible scenarios)

18. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Regional distrubution of bioenergy potential (Trend-scenario: Total of 105 EJ/yr)

19. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Bioenergy potentials and climate impacts (Trend Scenario)

20. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Potential from Bioenergy plantations in 2050, Global Energy Assessment (forthcom. 2010, prelim.) WBGU, 2008. Bioenergie und nachhaltige Landnutzung. Berlin. Van Vuuren 2009, Energy Policy

21. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Global Energy Flows: Overview Total terrestrial NPP2.190 EJ/yr Terrestrial aboveground NPP1.240 EJ/yr Human harvest (used and unused) 346 EJ/yr Fossil energy consumption 453 EJ/yr Biomass for technical energy 54 EJ/yr Global technical primary energy supply 551 EJ/yr Bioenergy potential, range var. estimates33-1.290 EJ/yr Bioenergy potential 2050, this study58-158 EJ/yr

22. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Conclusions Feeding a growing world population is possible with ecologically sound agricultural production – but only at a modest increase of the share of animal products in human diet. Dietary patterns matter: An increase in the share of animal products in human diets has far reaching implications: –Need to intensify land use (yield increases, feeding efficiency) –Expansion of cropland –Bioenergy potential reduced Food security and bioenergy are possible without further deforestation. Bioenergy and globalisation: Largest bioenergy potentials in Subsaharan Africa and Latin America. Climate matters: Bioenergy potential strongly depends on diet patterns and climate impacts. The later are only poorly understood.

23. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Report „Eating the planet?“ online: http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/downloads/WP116_WEB.pdf

24. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009 Data download http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/1088.htm