1. Unit 5 - Public Opinion & Ideology Targets 5.5 – 5.8

2. Public Opinion Case Study Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Holocaust never happened? Possible Impossible

3. Public Opinion Case Study Does it seem POSSIBLE or does it seem IMPOSSIBLE to you that the Holocaust never happened? Possible Impossible 22%

4. Can we trust public opinion polls? o The 1993 Roper poll caused a shock wave when over 1/5 (22%) of respondents indicated that they believed it was possible the Holocaust did not happen. The question contained a double negative o By changing the wording of the question, the number dropped to just 1% Public Opinion Case Study

5. 5.5 Deciphering Public Opinion 5a Should government care what the public thinks or wants? o In a democracy, how important is it for government actions to reflect the popular will? 5b Why is public opinion so hard to pin down? o Public uniformed o Public opinion changes o Polling Techniques: Question wording matters, Must be Random / Large sampling RESOURCES How Exit Polls Work (Vox – Nov. 2014) http://www.vox.com/2014/11/4/7150019/exit-polls-2014-midterm-election-results-biased Fox News broke exit polls rules (Politico – Oct. 2014) http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2014/11/fox-news-breaks-exit-poll-rules-198174.html

6. 5c What factors influence political beliefs? o Family o Age o Religion o Gender o Social Class o Race o Region 5.5 Deciphering Public Opinion

8. 5.6 Political Ideology/Beliefs Q:What distinguishes a Democrat from a Republican? A: Political ideology = o Beliefs and/or convictions regarding political & moral issues o Political ideologies / labels… … liberal and conservative o Meaning has changed … Those in the middle are called moderates o As a rule, the Democrats are liberal and the Republicans are conservative.

9. 5.6b Political Ideology/Beliefs Q: What do the labels “liberal” and “conservative” mean? A:Beliefs on a wide range of issues, ranging from the environment to gay marriage Issues can be categorized as economic issues or social issues “Hot button” Issues o Abortion o Gay Marriage o Gun Control o Illegal Immigration o National debt

10. o Religion in Schools Evolution v. Intelligent Design o The Environment Global Warming o Inconvenient Truth Inconvenient Truth Wolf release program 5.6b Political Ideology/Beliefs

11. Name Calling

12. 5.6c Measuring Political Ideology The Political Spectrum The RightThe Left liberals moderates conservatives Resources: Every wondered the origins of the terms conservative and liberal? Listen to NPR story on origins of political labels: http://www.npr.org/2013/12/03/248320213/upset- over-divisive-political-culture-blame-burke-and- paine Origins of Political IdeologyOrigins of Political Ideology (NPR – Dec 2013)

13. 5.6d Interpreting Data Are more Americans Conservative, Liberal or Moderate? How does this correspond with party affiliation? Interpret two charts from Pew Research: One showing Ideology and the other showing party affiliationIdeologyparty affiliation o What is the trend for each chart? o When comparing the two, do you see any anomalies? o How might we explain this?

14. 5.6 Activity - Gauging Your Own Ideology Complete this activity by taking 2 of the following surveys… o World’s Smallest Political Quiz World’s Smallest Political Quiz & o Go to Quiz Go to Quiz - Or - o Pew Research – Political Typology Pew Research – Political Typology

15. Liberal Conservative 5.6c Gauging Political Ideology

16. Libertarian o Demographics = younger, more educated o Social Issues = Liberal o Economic Issues = Conservative 5.6d Beyond Conservative & Liberal

17. Populists o Demographics = Older, less educated What do Populists Believe? http://www.npr.org/2014/10/31/360300838/in-swing-state-of- colorado-voter-says-she-has-to-settle-for-choice-of-evils 5.6d Beyond Conservative & Liberal

18. Other Labels o Environmentalists Environmentalists o Feminist Mormon Feminists o Atheists o Agnostics o Fundamentalist 5.6d Beyond Conservative & Liberal

19. 5.7 Q: “Who” are Liberals & Conservatives? A:Many factors shape, or otherwise correlate with an individuals ideological beliefs. The following are some important demographic factors: o Gender o Race o Age o Region Southern states v. North East West coast v. Intermountain region Urban v. Rural o Religion Church goers v. secularists o Education o Income o Family (married?, Children?, etc.)

20. 5.7 In Depth - Who are liberals & Conservatives Complete this In depth Assignment by using CNN Exit Polls o 2012 Presidential Exit Polls (CNN) 2012 Presidential Exit Polls o Once at the web site, choose the exit poll tab o 2014 Mid term exit polls (CNN) 2014 Mid term exit polls o Example: View of Federal Health Law (Obamacare) – 2014 exit polls o Conservatives are much more likely to oppose Obamacare at 84%, whereas liberals are much more likely to favor at 74% o In your answer, use the phrases “more likely” & “less likely” to record the trend Other Polls to look at (Note that some categories are not included) o 2012 Exit Polls (NY Times) 2012 Exit Polls o 2012 Exit Polls (Wash. Post) Compares 2012 & 2008 Elections 2012 Exit Polls How do Exit polls Work? (Vox) How do Exit polls Work? RESOURCES How do Exit Polls work? http://www.vox.com/2014/11/4/7150019/exit-polls- 2014-midterm-election-results-biased

21. 5.7a The “gender gap”

22. 5.7b Region

23. Region

25. 5.7c Race VOTE BY RACE BUSH KERRYNADER TOTAL200420002004 White (77%)58%+441%0% African-American (11%)11%+288%0% Latino (8%)44%+953%2% Asian (2%)44%+356%* Other (2%)40%+154%2%

27. 5.7c Age VOTE BY AGE BUSH KERRY NADER TOTAL200420002004 18-29 (17%)45%n/a54%0% 30-44 (29%)53%+446%1% 45-59 (30%)51%+248%0% 60 and Older (24%)54%+746%0%

28. 5.7c Religion VOTE BY RELIGION BUSH KERRYNADER TOTAL200420002004 Protestant (54%)59%+340%0% Catholic (27%)52%+547%0% Jewish (3%)25%+674%* Other (7%)23%-574%1% None (10%)31%+167%1%

29. Religion cont. CHURCH ATTENDANCE KERRYNADER TOTAL200420002004 More Than Weekly (16%)64%n/a35%1% Weekly (26%)58%n/a41%0% Monthly (14%)50%n/a49%* A Few Times a Year (28%)45%n/a54%0% Never (15%)36%n/a62%1% BUSH Democrats and Religion

30. 5.7c Family Status Married and Have Children? AllGoreBushBuchananNader Yes31 %41 %56 %0 %2 % No69 %51 %44 %1 %3 % Are You Married?AllGoreBushBuchananNader Yes65 %44 %53 %1 %2 % No35 %57 %38 %0 %4 %

31. 5.8 Political Elites Elites are more ideological than the general public (Pew) Elites are more ideological than the general public