1. ™ 41 st Annual AFLA Conference Volatility & Opportunities While Managing the Matrix of Change September 10, 2009 rbeggs@BlackBookUSA.com 770.533.5221 www.BlackBookUSA.com

2. What a Year Since We Last Met The Perfect Storm Economy-got much worse, starting to turn? Credit Issues-more available, but still squeezed Gas Prices-came off the peak, bottomed out, creeping back Volatility & Opportunities

3. Economy  Slow Retail Sales – Auto & Consumer Goods  Government  local cut backs  lower tax collections  schools cutting back  only the Federal Gov’t not cutting back  Unemployment 9.7%…but not the worst ever

4. Unemployment Rates - Historical Source : http://data.bls.gov/ Nov./Dec. 1982 10.8% Aug. 2009 9.7%

5. Unemployment Rates Source :http://data.bls.gov/map/servlet/map.servlet.MapToolServlet?survey=la Unemployment Rates by State, seasonally adjusted, July 2009 11.9 12.5 11.9 15.0 11.2 10.6 10.4 11 10.7 11.0 11.8 10.7 National Average for August 2009 = 9.7% Historical High in Nov./Dec. 1982 = 10.8% 10.2 10.3 10.6 R.I. 12.7

6. Home Equity Tighter Credit Scores Tighter Funding Home Mortgages – Foreclosures/Values Automotive Credit Issues

7. Auto Loan Delinquency 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Auto Loan Delinquency DirectIndirect Highest in 19 years! Q1 1990 Q1 1991Q1 1992 Q1 1994 Q1 1995 Q1 1996Q1 1997 Q1 1993 Q1 1998Q1 1999 Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Percent Source : American Bankers Association

8. Other Loan Delinquencies

9. Foreclosure Rates

10. Gasoline Prices Source : www.eia.doe.gov

11. Automotive Trends

12. Year-To-Year Trend 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 Jan.08 Aug.08 Dec.08 Jan.09 Apr.09 Aug.09 Domestic Car Domestic Truck Import Car Import Truck

13. Year-To-Year Trend -1671 -3434 -2350 -4106 -803 1866 274 1822 -4500-3500-2500-1500-500 1500 Domestic Domestic Truck Import Import Truck Average Dollar Change in 3Year Old Vehicle Jan.-Aug.09Jan.-Aug.08

14. Best Performers* of 2008 & 2009 Sporty Car -$642 (-3.1%) Entry Mid-Size Car -$98 (-0.8%) Upper Mid-Size Car -$76 (-0.6%) Entry Level Car -$58 (-0.7%) Compact Car $642 (6.3%) Jan.-Aug. '08 *2006 Models Full-Size Pickup +$2493 (+15.6%) Full-Size SUV +$3837 (+21.8%) Mid-Size SUV +$2915 (+20.7%) Compact SUV +$2825 (+21.7%) Luxury SUV +$2468 (+8.2%) Jan.-Aug. '09 *2007 Models *3 Year Old Vehicles

15. Greatest Volume Fleet Vehicles * *Q2 2009 6 out of top 11 vehicles are Impalas

16. 2007 Chevrolet Impala LS Trend to Continue?

17. 2007 Vehicle Trends

18. Fleet Model Years * 2003 5% 2004 7% 2005 13% 2006 32% 2007 32% 2008 11% 2009 1% * Q2 2009

19. Fleet Vehicles (Biggest Losers*) 05000100001500020000 Luxury Car Mid-Size Car Compact Car Full-Size Car Sporty Car Aug08Aug09 *2007 Vehicles Only Sold in Q2 2009

20. Fleet Vehicles (Winners*) 05000100001500020000 Cargo Van Crossover SUV Passenger Van Mid-Size SUV Pickup Aug09Aug08 *2007 Vehicles Only Sold in Q2 2009

21. Looking Ahead… The Opportunities

22. 36-Month $ Residual Trend

23. 36-Month % Residual Trend *2010 Residuals as of 9/01/2009 30 40 50 60 2007200820092010* median= 47.26median= 47.23median= 41.28median= 48.67 mean= 46.96mean= 47.27mean= 41.97mean= 48.03 sdev= 7.14sdev= 6.61sdev= 7.41sdev= 6.62 N= 285N= 291N= 273N= 123 36-month Jan.1 Percent.Residuals [percent] for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 [All Models]

24. 36-Month $ Residual Trend

25. 36-Month % Residual Trend *2010 Residuals as of 9/01/2009 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 2007200820092010* median= 47.48median= 47.25median= 41.72median= 46.63 mean= 47.32mean= 47.29mean= 40.86mean= 46.66 sdev= 6.94sdev= 6.62sdev= 6.56sdev= 6.07 N= 76 36-month Jan. 1 Percent.Residuals (Common Models) [percent] for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 Models

26. 36-Month $ Residuals : Winners and Losers Difference is in 36-month Residuals when expressed in dollars. Note : Number in parenthesis indicates number of models in segment. (4) (3) (2) (5) (3) (2) (6) (5) (4)

27. 36-Month % Residuals : Winners and Losers Difference is in 36-month Residuals when expressed in percentage Note : Numbers in parenthesis indicate number of models in segment (3) (2) (4) (5) (4) (5) (1) (4)

28.  Flex Fuel  Hybrid  Hybrid 2-Mode : GM, BMW, Chrysler (gone)  Diesel  Electric  Driving CAFÉ Standard by 2016 Alternative Fuels

29. Hybrid vs. Gasoline (Escape)

31. Diesel Over Gas Premium* [$]

32. Diesel Over Gas Premium [%] * 2006 & 2007 Models 280% 125% 163% 35%

33. Dollars Volatility to Reasonable to Steady +$4800 13 wks -$10400 27 wks -$3050 14 wks +$2700 8 wks +$1100 7 wks +$500 7 wks +$1000 3 wks

34. Volatility (Trucks) 2007 Models Values [$]

35. Volatility (Trucks) 2007 Models Values [$]

36. Volatility (Trucks) 2007 Models Values [$]

37. Volatility (Cars) Values [$]

38. Volatility (Cars) Values [$]

39. Volatility (Cars) Values [$]

40. Bankruptcy* Effect on Values 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2-Year Depreciation (2007 Models) [%] Bankruptcy Extinct Remaining Vibe Matrix Caliber Cobalt Corolla FocusMalibu Fusion Camry Tahoe G6 Expedition VUE CR-V Rav4 Outlook Acadia *Lower is Better

41. Bankruptcy* Effect on Values $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 2-Year Depreciation (2007 Models) [$] Bankruptcy Extinct Remaining Vibe Matrix Caliber Cobalt Corolla FocusMalibu Fusion Camry Tahoe G6 Expedition VUE CR-V Rav4 Outlook Acadia *Lower is Better

42.  Cash for Clunkers (What’s Ahead for Retail?)  Bankruptcy Brand  Fewer Dealerships-Smaller Inventories  Remarketer’s Internet Auctions  Types of Models, Engine Size, Fuel Efficiencies  Alternative Fuels – CAFÉ by 2016 (35.5 mpg)  Gas Prices and Their Effects  Limited Supply of Used Vehicles  How High Can It Go? (Monthly $, New vs. Used)  Information is King! Final Thoughts  Change-Tough But Inevitable…What You Did in the Past Won’t Work Today or Tomorrow-Applies to Buying and Remarketing  Timely, Independent, Accurate

44. ™ Thank you Ricky Beggs P.O. Box 758 Gainesville, GA 30503 770.533.5221 rbeggs@blackbookusa.com