Presentation on theme: "2007 AFLA Conference Tom Webb www.manheimconsulting.com."— Presentation transcript:
2007 AFLA Conference Tom Webb www.manheimconsulting.com
2 Top five factors influencing acquisitions: Need to keep fuel costs within budgetary constraints Corporate initiatives to reduce “carbon footprint” Right-sizing cargo-carrying vehicles and SUVs to improve fuel efficiency Finding “van” replacements as manufacturers change or eliminate their product offerings Anticipating / maximizing manufacturer incentive monies Source: Survey conducted by Automotive Fleet and published in June, 2007 issue
3 50 Years of Fleet Operating Costs * includes accident expense net of accident recoveries Source: PHH Arval, as reprinted in Automotive Fleet
4 Topic Outline Current wholesale pricing environment –Overall market –End-of-service fleet units Drivers of those changes “Making the best of the hand your dealt”
5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index All Manheim U.S. sales (5+ million annually) Classify by market segment Account for shifts in mileage Weight to provide unchanging mix Seasonally adjust STEPS: A single measure of used vehicle price change that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold Concept:
6 Source: Manheim Consulting Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index - January 1995 = 100 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
7 Source: Manheim Consulting Average Auction Price - Commercial Fleet Units
8 Source: Manheim Consulting Average Mileage - Commercial Fleet Units
9 Source: Manheim Consulting Average Auction Price - Mid-size Fleet Car
11 Auction Volume and Price Change by Vehicle Age Source: Manheim Consulting July 2007 versus July 2006
12 What Drives Used Vehicle Prices? Demand –Overall economy Labor market & credit conditions Tax policy, home refi’s, wealth effect –Price of competing goods – new vehicles Past prices Current incentives Supply –Off-lease volumes –Off-rental volumes –Overall level –Match with demand
13 Percent of Total Auction Volume by Price Tier Source: Manheim Consulting
14 Number of Unique Buyers by Price Tier Source: Manheim Consulting Each year Manheim has approximately 100,000 unique buyers. The number of unique buyers within each price tier is evenly distributed even when the supply of vehicles is not.
15 New Vehicles Sold into Non-Rental Fleet Source: Bobit Business Media -0.9%
17 Monthly Job Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls (establishment survey) - in thousands
18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Initial Jobless Claims – 4-week moving average 8/11/07 312,500
19 Retail Sales Remain Strong – Annual growth rate Source: U.S. Bureau of Census
20 Interest Rates Source: Federal Reserve Board
21 Interest Rate Yield Curve Source: Federal Reserve Board Spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries
22 Treasury Yields Plummet During Week of Turbulence Three-Month Treasury Bill - Daily Yield Source: Federal Reserve Board
23 Change in New Unit Sales vs. Change in GDP – 1960-2006 Real GDP New unit sales Source: Automotive News & Dept. of Commerce 1966 1982 1984
24 New Car & Light Duty Truck Sales millions of units Source: Automotive News
25 New Vehicle Sales & New Home Sales Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Automotive News
26 Housing Starts Fall to Decade Low New Single Family Starts 3-month moving average – millions of units Source: U.S. Census Bureau
27 Subprime Auto Lending Hard to over-emphasize importance –$100 billion in annual originations. –More than 40% of all used vehicle financing is subprime. Industry currently in “sweet spot” –Originations growing, defaults declining, recovery rates rising, credit ratings upgraded. –Fragmented, but consolidating industry. Cautions –Borrowers are highly leveraged and sensitive to gas prices. –Growth in subprime mortgages adds a new wrinkle. –Industry is prone to cycles.
28 Why Subprime Auto Loans Do Not Equal Subprime Mortgage Loans Better loans Fixed rates versus adjustable Experience with previous cycles Mortgage broker / lender relationship versus F&I manager / lender relationship Collateral expectations and results
35 Conclusions Slower growth, but growth Many conflicting forces impacting different demographic groups differently Further separation between good and great dealers The tailwinds that have pushed wholesale used vehicle prices upward will ease slightly.
36 Summary and Review of Economic and Industry Events That Will Influence Used Vehicle Values Housing Market -- the drag continues. Subprime Lending -- the differences between mortgages and auto loans. Gasoline Prices -- world demand continues to grow. UAW Negotiations -- concessions for sure, but how willingly given? U.S. Economic Recovery -- solid fundamentals, but slower growth ahead. Retail Used Vehicle Market -- profitable, but higher acquisition costs increasingly difficult to pass on.