1. Smog Workshop – Federal & Provincial Smog Policy Update John Wellner Director, Health Policy, OMA

2. Recent Smog News “green-speaking” provincial government “green-speaking” provincial government More smog than ever More smog than ever New chronic health effects information New chronic health effects information Quantification of cross-border effects Quantification of cross-border effects Climate change focus Climate change focus

3. Ontario Nitrogen Oxides Emissions by Sector (Emissions from Human Activity, 2001 Estimates) Other Processes 11%Primary Metals 3% Utilities 15% Other Transportation 30% Miscellaneous Area Sources 8% Road Vehicles 33%

4. Ontario VOC Emissions by Sector (Emissions from Human Activity, 2001 Estimates) Other Transportation 11% Miscellaneous Area Sources 8% Residential 12% General Solvent Use 24% Surface Coating 10% Road Vehicles 18% Other Processes 17%

5. SO 2 Emissions (2001)

6. Provincial Smog Policies/Initiatives: 1) Coal Phase-Out 2) Industry Emissions – IERP 3) Drive Clean

7. Coal-Plant Phase-Out Coal-fired power plants the largest industrial source of NO x, CO 2, significant Hg & SO 2 Coal-fired power plants the largest industrial source of NO x, CO 2, significant Hg & SO 2 Election promise for phase-out by 2007 Election promise for phase-out by 2007 Plan announced (summer ’05) for 2007 & 2009 Plan announced (summer ’05) for 2007 & 2009 Significant pressure to scrap this promise (from media commentators, opposition parties, large industry, even some quasi- environmentalists) Significant pressure to scrap this promise (from media commentators, opposition parties, large industry, even some quasi- environmentalists) Big debates: “Clean coal” and nuclear energy Big debates: “Clean coal” and nuclear energy

9. Coal Phase-Out Plan Lakeview GS in Mississauga (2005) Lakeview GS in Mississauga (2005) Lambton, Thunder Bay, Atikokan (2007) Lambton, Thunder Bay, Atikokan (2007) Nanticoke GS (2009) Nanticoke GS (2009)

10. Industry Emissions Reduction Plan Long history – Ontario Smog Plan, ASAP, CAPI, IERP many Ministers, 3 premiers … Long history – Ontario Smog Plan, ASAP, CAPI, IERP many Ministers, 3 premiers … IERP NO x & SO 2 from key industries IERP NO x & SO 2 from key industries But in 10 years, IERP only asks for 1% NO x & 8% SO 2 reductions But in 10 years, IERP only asks for 1% NO x & 8% SO 2 reductions Emissions trading loopholes may mean even less improvement Emissions trading loopholes may mean even less improvement improved health = overall, net emissions reductions improved health = overall, net emissions reductions

12. Drive Clean & other Provincial Vehicle Emissions Initiatives After considerable criticism, Drive Clean program was recently re- jigged After considerable criticism, Drive Clean program was recently re- jigged Newer cars exempt, stricter on old ones Newer cars exempt, stricter on old ones Target emission reductions = 22% Target emission reductions = 22% Modal shift, carpool lanes, transit, gas tax, anti-idling, etc. Modal shift, carpool lanes, transit, gas tax, anti-idling, etc.

13. Federal Programs Low-Sulphur Gasoline Low-Sulphur Gasoline (30 ppm in 2005, a 90% reduction) Low-Sulphur Diesel Low-Sulphur Diesel (15 ppm in June 2006, previously 500 ppm & higher) Canada-wide Smog Standards Canada-wide Smog Standards Canada-U.S. Air Quality Agreement Canada-U.S. Air Quality Agreement Kyoto Kyoto CEPA CEPA

14. Where’s that leave us? (How’s the air out there?)

15. One-Hour Ozone Exceedances across Ontario (2003)

16. Trend of Ozone One-Hour Maximum Concentrations in Ontario (1980 - 2003)

17. Trend of Ozone Annual Means for Urban and Rural Ontario (1990 - 2003)

18. Number of Ozone "Episode Days" in Ontario (1980 - 2003)

23. What to Expect in 2006 New Air Quality Health Index pilot projects New Air Quality Health Index pilot projects More debate on coal plants More debate on coal plants Low-sulphur on-road diesel Low-sulphur on-road diesel Ontario initiatives on cross-border smog Ontario initiatives on cross-border smog A Federal Clean Air Act? A Federal Clean Air Act? CEPA review CEPA review

24. For further questions - My Contact Information: john_wellner@oma.org 416-340-2953 or 800-268-7215 ext. 2953