1. J421: Analytic Journalism J421: Week II-III Ways of seeing/understanding: General Systems Theory

2. 2 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Readings for last and this week  What is/a the point(s) Steve Ross makes about the Challenger Space Shuttle settlement?Steve Ross  Steve Ross uses this article as a prologue to why reporters need to know how to use spreadsheets, but he also presents a larger issue about reporters, journalism and journalism education. --What do you think that is?

3. 3 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 McGrath  McGrath’s article on the complexity of prediction talks about the “Fair Model.” What is a “model?” McGrath’s article  “A model is an abstraction -- a simplified representation of a more complex object or system of objects. In most sciences, we use models to predict the behavior of the more complex system that we have modeled.”

4. 4 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Examples of models  Physics - models to predict the flow of air molecules over the wing of an aircraft.  Computer performance engineering - models to predict throughput and response time for computer systems.  Economic forecasting - models to predict consumer spending, the effect of tax increases or tax cuts on the markets  Political science – models to predict voter reaction

5. 5 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 What is a Model?  Explains how nature operates  Derived from observations  It simplifies and categorizes the information.  A model must be sensible, but it has limitations

6. 6 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Properties of a Model  A human inventions, not a blown up picture of nature.  Models can be wrong because they are based on speculations and oversimplification  Become more complicated with age.  You must understand the assumptions in the model, and look for weaknesses.  We learn more when the model is wrong than when it is right

7. 7 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Application of Models  Simulation models  Weather prediction http://www.weather.com/outlook/driving/interstate/regiona l?reg=ne http://www.weather.com/outlook/driving/interstate/regiona l?reg=ne  How a city works http://www.communityviz.com/index.asp?circuit=4&fuse=lib rary http://www.communityviz.com/index.asp?circuit=4&fuse=lib rary  How journalists use simulation models: The Institute for Interactive Journalism http://www.j-lab.org/cool_poli.html http://www.j-lab.org/cool_poli.html

8. 8 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 How journalists use simulation models  The Institute for Interactive Journalism http://www.j-lab.org/cool_poli.html http://www.j-lab.org/cool_poli.html  Everett, Washington Herald’s “Waterfront Renaissance” http://www.heraldnet.com/waterfront/1 3898794.CFM http://www.heraldnet.com/waterfront/1 3898794.CFM

9. 9 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Application of models  Subsection on Elections, Public Opinion, and Voting Behavior of the American Political Science Association http://www.apsanet.org/~elections/ http://www.apsanet.org/~elections/  Political Forecasting Special Interest Group http://morris.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/Political/ http://morris.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/Political/

10. 10 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04  Journalists, et al., in Infosphere Changing Infosphere: In Metabolism Latent Energy Out  Species in Biosphere:

11. 11 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Think of a phenomenon as... ... an onion (with a peel and layers) ... an organism (with stages of life, blood, head, and heart) ... a factory (with raw material, source of power, bosses, and workers) ... a building (with foundation, windows, and façade) ... an ecology (with niches, climates, and food chains) Source: Weinberg, Gerald M. “ An Introduction to General Systems Thinking” http://www.dorsethouse.com/books/gst.html See also http://www.geraldmweinberg.com/Bookstuff/Each_Book/GST.html http://www.dorsethouse.com/books/gst.html http://www.geraldmweinberg.com/Bookstuff/Each_Book/GST.html

12. 12 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Think of a phenomenon as... ... a language (with grammar, dialects, and speakers) ... a code (with secrets, transmitters, and receivers) ... a body (with personality, sexuality, upbringing, and occasional disease) ... a system (with inputs, feedback, and outputs) ... a structure (with hierarchy, needs, and objectives) Source: Horwitz, Richard P. http://twist.lib.uiowa.edu/rhorwitz/rootsas.htm ©2000

13. 13 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Think of a phenomenon as... ... a game (with plays, rules, and referees) ... a drama (with roles, script, and audience) ... a city (with streets, sewer lines, and neighborhoods) ... a text (with authors, genres, and readers) ... an ideology (with premises and implications) ... a regime (with a currency, rulers, and rebels). Source: Horwitz, Richard P. http://twist.lib.uiowa.edu/rhorwitz/rootsas.htm ©2000

14. 14 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Why General Systems Theory? If one learns the structures, when transferring from one discipline to another, much of the learning could be transferred. When studying a new discipline one would simply have to learn the labels on the structures in the new discipline.

15. 15 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Narrowing the Focus: GST  Resource: http://www.systems-thinking.org/welcome.htm http://www.systems-thinking.org/welcome.htm  "Studies the organization of phenomena.... Investigates both principles common to all complex entities and the 'models' (usually mathematical) which can be used to describe them.“  SYSTEMS: "...things that collectively behave differently as opposed to their behavior when separated.“

16. 16 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Examples of systems thinking “Inspiration” http://www.inspiration.com/test/dswmedia/intr o.html http://www.inspiration.com/test/dswmedia/intr o.html Golda Meir and Indira Gandhi http://www.inspiration.com/productinfo/inspiration/using_insp /index.cfm?fuseaction=socialstudies Causes of the French Revolution http://www.inspiration.com/productinfo/inspiration/using _insp/index.cfm?fuseaction=socialstudies http://www.inspiration.com/productinfo/inspiration/using _insp/index.cfm?fuseaction=socialstudies Congress of Vienna http://www.inspiration.com/diagrams/ed/fire.h tml http://www.inspiration.com/diagrams/ed/fire.h tml

17. 17 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Brief introduction to GST  Attributes of a system…. 1.Composed of variables, i.e. elements that can be defined, or described, separately.  Sub-variables. Tree-to-branch-to-leaf-to- cell 2.There are relationships between variables  Horizontal relationships  Vertical (i.e. hierarchical) relationships

18. 18 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Brief introduction to GST 3.A system has boundaries  Conceptual  Legal: corporate, jurisdiction  Geographic  Cultural 4.A system has goals, self-defined or with a definition imposed by a server/researcher  Make money  Provide for group security, happiness, procreation

19. 19 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Brief introduction to GST 5.A system learns from changes in its variables or environment

20. 20 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 A newspaper as a system Editorial Production Circulation Advertising “Backoffice”

21. 21 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 A newspaper as a system Editorial  Local News  Int’l News  Business  Sports

22. 22 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 A newspaper variables and sub-systems Editorial  Local News  Int’l News  Business  Sports  High School  College  Professional

23. 23 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 System hierarchy and “zooming” Editorial Sports Newspaper Media Football H. S. Football Higher Concept Lower Concept

24. 24 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Online enterprise Dynamic system modelDynamic system

25. 25 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Value of GST  Demands definition/focus on exactly what system are you talking about?  Demands consideration of level of analysis, i.e. “zooming” levels of focus  Demands definition of variables and then the relative importance of those variables  Demands consideration of relationships between variables

26. 26 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 GST as basis for simulation models  Once system, goals, variables and relationships defined, can start to ask “How do we measure the strength of those relationships?”  This is where dynamic simulation models kick in.

27. 27 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 These activities involve resources and power  Resources: The symbolic and material components a system needs to carry out its tasks.  Power: The use of resources by one system in order to gain compliance by another system.

28. 28 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Power role  Power roles  Resource-controlling relationships  Taken on mostly by systems  Producer Power Role  Creates material for release to public  Competition over niches

29. 29 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 Why General Systems Theory?  If one learns the structures, when transferring from one discipline to another, much of the learning could be transferred.  When studying a new discipline one would simply have to learn the labels on the structures in the new discipline.

30. 30 J421 - Week II © J.T.Johnson 2000-2--3 _____________________________Fall ‘04 How many ways to “knowing”?

31. J421: Analytic Journalism J421: Week II Ways of seeing/understanding: General Systems Theory