1. Weight Loss By Design A methodical plan for reducing your weight with guaranteed results Josh Karnes

2. Overview Prologue: A Case for Christian Men Introduction Mathematical Model Engineering a Solution Plotting a Course Staying on Course Using the Tools

3. Prologue: A Case for Christian Men Your Weight and Your Walk Did God Create You This Way? Is it a Sin to be Overweight? The World’s View For Married Men Fathers

4. Your Weight and Your Walk Stewardship of God’s gifts God gave us three main resources with which to accomplish our mission in life: Spirit, Mind and Body Keeping our body healthy is an act of wise stewardship, and an investment in our own futures, just as having a healthy mind and spirit It is easy to rationalize a desire to be at a healthy weight as vanity, but it is not vanity

5. Did God Create You This Way? It is a common excuse that God made you the way you are, which implies that there is nothing you can do about it The fact is that God made you in His image This is true for your spirit, mind and body Life in this world has changed you

6. Is it a Sin to be Overweight? The answer depends on why you are overweight There are reasons people become overweight which are rooted in sin, such as gluttony and complacency, others; often the reason is deceit Poor stewardship of our bodies is likely sin To change we must turn away from our former ways

7. The World’s View Right or wrong, the world often views overweight people as lazy and weak We must deal with reality, not an ideal We do not advance the Christian cause by appearing lazy and weak in the world’s eyes It takes discipline to keep a healthy weight Our witness may be improved by weight loss

8. For Married Men Married Guys: your body does not belong only to you! It is a sure blessing to your wife and family for you to achieve a healthy weight You will look better and be more attractive to your spouse – this is a very good thing! You will be healthier and express greater energy You will live a longer, healthier life!

9. Fathers Einstein says that example is the only way to teach; set a good example for your kids regarding health, weight and discipline Your focus on your health shows your children that you care about being there for them in the long run You will have more energy for your kids and be a better dad

10. Introduction Engineering Solutions Not Exactly What You Think… …But it’s a Little Like What You Think… It’s Both Easier, and Harder, Than You Think Sidebar: Fitness Reference: The Hacker’s Diet, by John Walker

11. Engineering Solutions Success is a side effect of excellent process Engineers study the problem, identify the cause, and design a solution which eradicates the cause of the problem Once the problem has been solved once, it’s solved forever An engineered solution has success built-in. Failure results only from poor execution

12. Not Exactly What You Think… This is not a fad diet You won’t be told what to eat, or what not to eat. You choose what you eat. Once you get into the program, you will probably choose to change what you eat, but only because it makes sense You control your results This is like adding a throttle and a speedometer to your weight loss. Tools which put you in control

13. …But It’s A Little Like What You Think… You will undergo a lifestyle change To lose weight, you have to change. There is no way around it You will have to eat less food in order to make a big change in weight Exercise can help, but it is not a viable solution for substantial weight loss The reality is, the old axiom “eat right and get regular exercise”, is pretty much right on This is not likely to be fun. It is, however, worth it

14. It is Both Easier, and Harder, Than You Think Most diets are maddening Poor feedback You feel weird and hungry, lack energy Don’t often have the results you expected This diet is different The feedback is instant and excellent The results are up to you, you are in control of the throttle You will still be hungry, but won’t lack energy nor generally feel a lot different, since we’re not dramatically changing your normal diet

15. Sidebar: Fitness Fitness, weight, appearance, strength, energy… which one? Generally, the term “fitness” may be overused to describe all of these things Establish goals realistically Fitness: Cardiac. Resting Heart Rate, Max Heart Rate, Muscle/fat ratio, endurance, recovery rate, metabolism Weight: simply what the scale says, regardless of fitness level Strength: not related to fitness or weight Energy: Simply related to food intake and metabolism Appearance: You can look good without being fit, strong, or energetic, and vice-versa Why do I want to lose weight?

16. Sidebar: Fitness cont’d What weight loss is NOT Losing weight will not make you fit, or strong Fitness comes from aerobic exercise and active lifestyle Strength comes from strength training Fitness is not always equal to a thin physique Losing weight may not completely improve your appearance It’s possible to be both thin, and flabby. Losing weight won’t “give you more energy” It will, however, reduce the amount of energy required for you to move around, so you’ll feel more energetic, unless you lose muscle as well as fat

17. Sidebar: Fitness cont’d Fitness, strength, and appearance are all valuable goals Any weight loss program should be coupled with a plan to improve fitness, strength and appearance Aerobic exercise program Strength Training (lifting weights, etc.) Increase muscle tone/mass (targeted workout) Because let’s face it, you just want to look good, feel good, and live a long time, right?

18. Sidebar: Fitness cont’d Most people’s weight loss dreams include elements of fitness, strength, and appearance (look good, feel good, live long & prosper) Losing weight alone is probably not the answer You can lose weight and still: Look soft and flabby Lack muscle tone, “hardbody” appearance Feel weak and lack fitness Have generally poor health Be sure you are going to achieve your goal

19. The Hacker’s Diet The Hacker’s Diet, by John Walker Book detailing the basis for this program Has excellent explanations of how it all works, and fleshes out the math extremely well Highly recommended to read Available for free on the web (e-book)

20. Mathematical Model Explanation of Model The “Real Skinny” The Trick

21. Explanation of Model This program is based on a mathematical model: One pound of fat contains 3,500 calories of energy Based on this model and a few assumptions, we can calculate how many calories to cut to reach goals There is a way to eliminate the assumptions

22. The “Real Skinny” You must reduce your calories in order to lose any significant weight To lose one pound, based on the model, you have to cut 3500 calories To lose a pound in a week (7 days), you have to cut 500 calories per day; this is a lot of food! Exercise offers mostly false hopes Most types of aerobic and anaerobic exercise offer less than 700 cal/hour of extra metabolism To lose one pound in one week with high-intensity aerobic exercise alone, you must put in 5 hours of exercise; not likely.

23. The Trick We can use control and feedback to determine what your metabolism is, and create an interactive custom plan Control: calorie intake Careful logging of calorie intake, choosing when to stop eating Feedback: the scale Any overage or deficit in calories will show up on the scale at a rate of 3500 cal/lb We can determine your daily metabolism accurately by measuring your calorie intake and weight daily

24. Engineering A Solution Analyze the problem Determine the cause of the problem Develop a solution to the root cause Implement the solution to eliminate problem Elimination of the problem is the expected effect

25. Analyze the Problem Problem: you’re overweight Not really the problem, but actually an effect of the problem We need to find the real cause and fix it We know this is not the real problem, because you were not born overweight. You got this way somehow Being overweight usually results from the cumulative effects of eating too much day after day, other causes

26. Real Problem Problem: your body does not know when to stop eating. Believe it or not, you eat too much. For proof, see the scale. Welcome to reality It’s not your fault. You didn’t choose to be this way. You’d fix it if you could We can fix it

27. Determine the Cause of the Problem “Broken feedback loop” in the body causes you to eat a tiny amount too much each day You are not consciously aware that you are eating too much Amount is tiny: as little as 50 calories per day, or less than one Oreo 50 calories per day extra food per day equates to 5.2 lb extra weight per year!! In 10 years, you are 50 lb overweight and must struggle to maintain even that level

28. Develop a Solution for the Root Cause Since the body’s feedback loop is broken, we need to develop an external feedback loop to use instead We can’t fix the body’s feedback loop. You’re born with it. Fortunately we have mathematics and technology Understanding of the basis for why fat is added to or burned from your body, we can develop a tool to bypass your body’s broken feedback loop

29. Implement the Solution to Eliminate the Problem The solution: Diligently log what you eat and your weight Use the 3500 cal/lb model to chart a course for weight loss Continue measuring calories and weight to adapt solution to reality Implementation: Calorie log, scale, daily attention, stop eating when we hit a calorie limit Use computer tools for more advanced solution

30. Elimination of the Problem is the Expected Effect Your body is a machine. If you stick to the plan, you will lose weight The only way the plan will not work is if you do not stick to it The hard part is sticking to it We develop support structures to help you stick to it In the end, it pays to be obsessive and radically committed to the plan If you lack commitment to the plan, you will not succeed.

31. Plotting A Course Your Weight Loss Goals The Psychology of Weight Loss Healthy Rewards The Value of Exercise

32. Your Weight Loss Goals You need to set time-bound, concrete goals in order to be successful Set realistic goals. It’s very hard to lose more than 2.0 lb/week. Set milestones if necessary Run the program for six months at a time. Set goals to cover six months, and then re- evaluate Get Support from friends and others on the program

33. The Psychology of Weight Loss You like food – but it’s killing you slowly There is such a thing as “too much of a good thing” You must turn your back on your desire for food, and desire instead to be healthy Your “love” of food is a learned habit. You will naturally break it after you abandon it

34. Healthy Rewards Do not make food a reward! Many popular diet plans make food a reward for success. Not a good way to discourage you from coveting food Choose healthier rewards You will need new clothes… that’s an idea There must be something you enjoy other than food! In the end, your improved health is its own reward While true, it’s hard to know how profound an effect this will have before you have achieved it

35. The Value of Exercise Exercise has value, but not really for weight loss It would take a huge amount of exercise to make a significant, fast change in weight Diet is infinitely more effective Exercise pays off in other ways Stress relief Better general health and longevity You will enjoy your life more if you are healthier, regardless of your weight In the long term, it will be easier to maintain your healthy weight if you have a regular exercise program

36. Staying on Course Monitor your weight and calorie intake daily, be sure you don’t exceed your daily calorie limits set to reach your loss goal Meet with your support group and hold each other accountable Once you reach your goals, continue monitoring

37. Staying on Course cont’d Gather Support A support group can be very helpful Pat on the back when you are on track Accountability structure to keep you on track The “2-5 Group” The “2-5 Group” is a group of 2-5 men who meet regularly for support and accountability

38. Staying on Course cont’d Your 2-5 group meetings Meet with the group of 2-5 men once a week by email, phone, or in person, to check progress and get everyone on track Keep each other accountable! Meet for one year Meet weekly for six months to reach your goals Continue meeting weekly for six more months to be sure you keep the weight off

39. Using the Tools Excel Spreadsheet tool does most of the work for you Log your calories and weight daily Stay under the Calorie Budget for the day You will lose weight!

40. Using the Excel Tools Overview Entering Data Taking Feedback Using the Graphs A Quick Snapshot The Grocery List The Real Work The Mechanics of Feedback

41. Overview Tool: MS Excel Workbook Six sheets Entry: where you enter all the data Graphs: gives you visual indication of your progress Sums and Averages: snapshot look at results Foods Calorie Listing: place to keep a list of common foods Metabolism Chart: Chart to help with estimated metabolism Calc Data: where all the hard math is done Help is available Move your mouse over most cells, or the “INFO” cells, and a little help window pops up! Sweet!

42. Entering Data Start by entering your data The “Entry” Sheet has a few types of cells Yellow: These are required for you to enter data for the tool to work properly. Fill these in! Light Green: These are auto-calculated fields. You cannot enter data here. White: These description fields are for the text description of the food you eat Bright Red or Green: The calorie budget fields will be green if you are within your calorie budget, and turn red when you go over

43. Entering Data cont’d Open “Entry” sheet, and fill in the following Fill in the first cell (A3) in the “Date” column with the start date of your six-month program Fill in the “Target Weight Loss (per week)” field at the top right of the page with the number of lb/week you would like to lose (under 2 is recommended) Fill in the Est. Metabolism field at top right with your daily calorie output estimate from the chart on the “Metabolism Chart” sheet. Fill in your goal by scrolling to the date of your goal and entering your target weight in the “Goal!” column (you can have more than one goal!) Now you’re all set-up!

44. Entering Data cont’d Begin logging the data First in the morning, before you eat or drink anything, take your weight, put it in “AM Weight” for the day Always use the same scale As you eat food during the day, log everything in the “Cal” fields and the descriptions under “Breakfast”, “Lunch”, “Dinner” and “Other” Remember drinks! Coffee creamer! “Other” is for snacks Be ACCURATE If you are on an exercise or workout program, enter a “Y” in the “Work out?” column every day you work out

45. Taking Feedback The tool will begin to give feedback as you enter data The Calorie Budget fields are your feedback to tell you how much to eat each day They automatically adjust and give you a number for how much is left for you to eat for each day While you are under the budget, the box will be green. When you go over, it turns red Stay under! Keep it green!

46. Taking Feedback cont’d Active vs. Static The “Static Calorie Budget” is based on your est. metabolism and lb/week goal only The “Active Calorie Budget” takes into account your actual measured weight loss and metabolism It automatically adjusts to your actual metabolism To start, use the Static Calorie Budget

47. Using the Graphs The second sheet has three graphs Calories & Weight This graph has your averaged weight and your daily calorie intake graphed together, plus any weight goals Metabolism & Calorie Deficits Plots your average metabolism and the number of calories fewer than that you eat each day Average Weekly Weight Loss

48. A Note about Moving Averages Most of the data in the graphs and calculations are based on weighted moving averages An average over a certain number of days is taken, with priority given to the latest data This smoothes the graph response and helps with consistency of data The averages lag behind the “real” data by about the number of days in the average If you use “7” moving averages, then the data will be about a week behind You can adjust these on the top of the “Entry” sheet The ideal numbers vary person to person

49. Note: Switch from Static to Active You should begin the program by using the “Static Calorie Budget” As time goes by and data is collected, the “Active Calorie Budget” becomes accurate When the “metabolism” graph levels off, it is time to switch to the “Active Calorie Budget” This usually takes about 3-4 weeks

50. A Quick Snapshot The “Sums and Averages” sheet gives a quick snapshot of your progress You must enter your current weight in the yellow cell in order to get any calculations This can be used as a quick guide to figure if you are hitting your goals Average lb/week loss is calculated here, as well as your average metabolism and average daily calorie intake

51. The Grocery List The “Foods Calorie Listing” sheet is like a “grocery list” for the foods you commonly eat No data is taken from this sheet for calculation It’s here as a scratch pad for you to record the number of calories in food you eat routinely Trust me: it’s handy

52. The Real Work The real work is done on the “Calc Data” sheet You can peruse this data and see exactly how it’s calculated, if you are insanely curious Much of the calculation methods are based on logic presented in The Hacker’s Diet The active feedback math is unique to this program

53. The Mechanics of Feedback The key to this program is active feedback in the “Active Calorie Budget” This keeps your weight loss on track almost absolutely, and adapts to your actual metabolism It works using simple math Determine the amount of weight lost average per day Determine the number of calories input average per day Determine the energy used average per day (metabolism) Weight loss x 3500 + calories in = metabolism Subtract calories required for weight loss target from metabolism to get “Active Calorie Budget”

54. The Mechanics of Feedback cont’d Setting the budget You need to eat less calories than you output in energy in order to lose weigh The rate is 3500 cal per pound With this program, you set a lb/week goal Calculate a daily target calorie reduction (lb/wk goal) / 7 Budget is derived by subtracting the daily calorie reduction from the calculated metabolism

55. The Mechanics of Feedback cont’d This method is 100% accurate and effective It is not very fast to respond It is based on history, so tomorrow’s budget will be based on yesterday’s output Using moving averages means tomorrows budget may be based on the average output for the last 7 days or more To not use moving averages results in poor results The ideal number of moving averages depends on how volatile the data is; if the weight, calorie input, and lifestyle (daily) is very consistent, then the averages number can be reduced and the budget gets more responsive

56. The Mechanics of Feedback cont’d Though not fast, it is adaptive, corrects mistakes If you increase your energy output for a week, then the budget for that week will be too small and you will lose weight faster than projected The result is that the system will “learn”, and increase the budget for the next week to resume the projected weight loss schedule If you then back off your energy output for a week, then the budget will be too large and you will lose weight slower than expected The result is that over the two weeks, you will have hit your projected rate of loss, but not short-term

57. The Mechanics of Feedback cont’d The key is to be consistent Consistency in energy output (your activity level) and in food intake will lead to consistent weight loss Barring regimented consistency, the key is to look at it long-term The feedback is not very responsive in the short-term, but since it’s self-correcting, over the longer term it will yield the right result Since it’s a mathematical model based on real- world input, it is accurate and gets results

58. Performance Tuning You can fine-tune the performance and response of the Excel tool Tune responsiveness of graphs Tune responsiveness and accuracy of “Active Calorie Budget” You have to develop at least 3-6 weeks of data in the tool in order to make changes that will not have a negative effect

59. Performance Tuning cont’d # Moving Averages At the top of the “Entry” sheet are two fields # Moving Averages for Weight, Calories # Moving Averages for Metabolism These numbers are like the “damping factor” of the system Changing these numbers tunes the response of the system

60. Performance Tuning cont’d Overdamped, Underdamped Since the data (weight, calorie input, and metabolism) are not only imprecise, but are also highly variant, the input should be damped “Damping” smoothes the response An overdamped system will be too slow to respond An underdamped system will oscillate A properly damped system will respond quickly enough for the changing conditions, but not oscillate

61. Performance Tuning cont’d Tuning the damping factors Weight, Calories Observe the graph for “Weight & Calories” If it’s a smooth line, reduce the “# Moving Averages for Weight, Calories” by one at a time until the line becomes “jerky”. Keep the smallest whole number that results in a smooth line If it’s a “jerky” line, increase the “# Moving Averages for Weight, Calories” by one at a time until the line becomes smooth. Keep the smallest whole number that results in a smooth line

62. Performance Tuning cont’d Tuning the damping Factors Metabolism Observe the graph for “Metabolism & Calorie Deficits” – you’re looking at the metabolism line If it oscillates (rapidly changes up, down, up, down, like a sine wave) or is jerky, then increase the “# Averages for Metabolism” until the line smoothes out If it is smooth or level, then try reducing the “# Averages for Metabolism” until it gets jerky or oscillates, and then increase it until it is smooth again Keep the smallest whole number that results in a smooth line.