1. Understanding and Influencing Energy Practices Yacob Mulugetta Centre for Environmental Strategy University of Surrey

2. Themes Understanding energy practices –Energy basics –UK energy situation Influencing energy practices –Policy terrain –Consumer terrain –Research Issues for the future

3. What is energy? The capacity to do work - –The more work done on a simple object, the more energy it has, meaning that it has seen an increase in its capacity to do work Work = Force x Displacement (Distance) –Energy comes in many forms, kinetic (something is moving), potential (stored), heat (motion of molecules). Energy is always conserved. It is not created or destroyed but is just converted from one form to another Energy delivered for a period of time = Power…. –Power = Energy/Time (kWh).. Energy = Power * Time (kW)

4. The First Law of thermodynamics says that Energy can be neither created or destroyed, but can only be changed from one form to another The first energy law (the law of conservation of energy) deals with energy transformations The total mass of material inputs to a transformation process is equal to total mass of material inputs Governs the total quantity of each atomic element during material transformations –total amount of carbon released during combustion of fossil fuel must equal total amount of carbon in the fuel provides a useful mass & energy balance principles in material throughput associated with an economic activity –But does not provide the full picture of the way economic activities may impact on the environment Talks about quantity but not availability of energy to do useful work

5. The Second Law of Thermodynamics states that there is no such thing as a perfectly efficient energy transformation. The second law of energy tells us that we can't even break even. The second law means that there is always unavoidable loss in energy any time we transform it from one type to another Like the law of diminishing returns - energy becoming less and less available as it passes through successive transformations The efficiency to convert heat energy to electricity (35- 40%) 60-65% ‘gone missing’ - ‘low grade’ heat - may be used for other purposes

9. World energy demand by fuel Source: IEA; WEO

10. World energy demand by country Source: IEA; WEO

11. ICE Bath

15. UK Energy situation: Past & Present The latter quarter of the twentieth century saw the UK benefit from the production of North Sea oil and gas reserves. By 2000, the UK had grown to be the fourth largest producer of natural gas in the World and exported substantial quantities of oil. Also by 2000, North Sea oil and gas production had peaked, while the demand continued to rise. By 2005, the UK had begun to import gas. It is expected that by 2010 the UK will be importing oil, and by 2020 will be largely dependent on imported gas

16. UK IMMEDIATE FUTURE The UK is about to increase its dependence on imported sources of energy at a time of rising prices and in an increasingly competitive international market. Nuclear plant decommissioning Within 10 years, loss of 10% generating capacity Within 20 years, lose 75%

17. PROJECTED POWER CAPACITY Source: DTI

18. UK natural gas resources

19. UK projected electricity fuel mix

20. Defra (2006) Climate Change Programme

21. UK greenhouse gas emissions

22. UK Policy Terrain 2000 Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution –Recommends 60% carbon reduction by 2050 2002 Cabinet Office Energy Review 2003 Energy White Paper “Creating a Low Carbon Economy” –Adopts 60% target, energy security, fuel poverty & competitive markets 2004 Renewables Innovation Review 2005-06 –Climate Change Policy Review –Energy Efficiency Innovation Review –Energy Review –Stern Review on the economics of climate change 2007 Energy White Paper –Save energy –Develop cleaner supplies –Secure reliable energy supplies at prices set in competitive markets

23. Fuel poverty progress (No. of households paying 10% of income on basic energy services)

24. Consumer terrain: Problems Institutional structures, infrastructure (public transport) Social expectations, habits and routines Economic incentives: alternatives more expensive Behaviours and practices that underpin both direct and indirect energy consumption patterns depend on a complex interaction of continually evolving personal values, social norms and cultural narratives “I will, if you will”

25. Defra (2006) Climate Change Programme

27. Consumer terrain: Policy ‘crisis’ Consumption behaviours and practices have taken centre stage in public policy discussions like never before Traditional energy policy instruments of informing energy end-users and the use of price incentives have only met with limited success to achieve the level of behavioural change needed to make progress in moving towards a low carbon future Policies need to be supported by new forms of governance that encourage participation and ‘collectivise’ individual action

29. Research & Development In the field of energy, it is a widely held view that spending on RD&D is an important precursor to the technological advances Energy-related R&D has been declining over the past 25 years across the OECD This tend need reversing

30. Research & Development "Investment in new renewable energy sources leads to roughly 10 times more jobs than a comparable investment in the fossil-fuel sector. This difference underscores the economic benefits of moving our economy and society from one of energy 'hunter gatherers' to one of 'energy farmers' and innovators." Professor Daniel Kammen, Berkeley

31. UK energy RD&D (public) spend Source: IEA

32. Future developments? US position into the coming few years – critical –Lots happening at State level –Plenty of optimism EU – worrying? –Still not enough awareness in many countries The challenge of bringing in emerging economies

33. Thank You!!!