1. How Government Works PBO’s Role FMI Capital Chapter PD Day Ottawa, May 22, 2014 Mostafa Askari Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Canada

2. Outline

3. Why was PBO created?

4. How does PBO help government and parliament work better?

5. What has PBO done so far?

6. Economic outlook: growth in economic activity %

7. Economic outlook: Impact of restraint measures

8. Economic outlook: Nominal GDP Billions of dollars

9. Fiscal forecast: Statement of operation 2013-2014-2015-2016-2017-2018- 201420152016201720182019 Budgetary revenues268.3280.0297.1310.4320.3332.5 Program expenses251.0250.7258.7267.8276.0284.5 Public debt charges28.929.830.533.436.838.9 Budgetary balance-11.6-0.57.89.17.59.1 Federal debt614.0614.5606.7597.6590.1580.9 Per cent of GDP Budgetary revenues14.314.414.6 14.514.6 Program expenses13.412.912.712.612.5 Public debt charges1.5 1.61.7 Budgetary balance-0.60.00.4 0.30.4 Federal debt32.731.629.928.226.825.5 billions of dollars

10. Fiscal forecast: Outlook for revenues and expenses

11. Fiscal forecast: Fan chart Chance of balanced budget or better

12. Fiscal forecast: Structural balance billions of dollars

13. Fiscal forecast: Structural balance 2013-2014-2015-2016-2017-2018- 201420152016201720182019 Budgetary balance -11.6-0.57.89.17.59.1 Structural balance -4.54.88.95.72.03.1 Cyclical balance -7.1-5.3-1.13.45.56.0 billions of dollars

14. Fiscal sustainability: Demographic projection

15. Fiscal sustainability: federal fiscal structure billions of dollars

16. Fiscal sustainability: Other levels of government fiscal structure billions of dollars

17. Fiscal sustainability: CPP/QPP fiscal structure

18. Fiscal sustainability: Fiscal gap % of real GDP

19. Challenges

20. “If the House of Commons by any possibility lose the power of the control of the grants of public money, depend upon it, your very liberty will be worth very little in comparison.” William Ewart Gladstone, 1891