1. Kyra Kester, Ph. D. Social and Economic Sciences Research Center SCANNING THE ENVIRONMENT: Economic, Labor Market, and Demographic Planning Information for the Seattle Community College District

2. SCAN PROVIDES : Recommendations for targeting or enhancing programs that prepare students for the economic conditions predicted for 2023 Projections of job growth for King County 2013 – 23 as industry growth and occupation growth Information on the average earnings and median wages as of 2013 Brief investigation of demand compared to completions (as of 2012) Analysis of demographic changes applicable to educational planning: changes in age cohorts, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment 2

3. ECONOMIC FORECASTS PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS 2013-2023

4. GENERALLY, ECONOMIC FORECASTS ARE POSITIVE  ANTICIPATING 15-16% GROWTH FOR KING COUNTY 2013-2023  Some industries are still suffering from the recession (Finance), while others are still recovering (Construction).  Growth rates vary within industries and occupations: subject of study in this report. 4

5. POPULATION FORECASTS ARE FOR SLIGHT GROWTH  2013-2023 PROJECTED GROWTH RATES SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS:  Washington state 6%  King County 7%  SCCD catchment 5%  Central catchment 5%  North catchment 6%*  South catchment 8% 5

6. GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO BE HIGHER AMONG SOME GROUPS  HIGHEST GROWTH EXPECTED AMONG A VARIETY OF HISPANIC COHORTS  Taken together, projected to increase by 21% in King County 2013-2023  AVERAGE AGE PREDICTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE  Largest increases among 65+ cohorts  Largest working age increases in the 35-39 cohort 6

7. Demographic Changes Anticipated for North Catchment, 2013-2023 In 2013, 73% of the population was white By 2023, 71% of the population is expected to be white The change will largely occur from increases in Asian American and Hispanic/Hispanic-mixed cohorts 7

8. 8 RACE/ETHNICITY CHANGES 2013-2023 NORTH CATCHMENT White347 African American1,031 American Indian/Native Alaskan(6) Asian American4,576 Pacific Islander/Native Hawaiian107 Multiracial, not Hispanic2,318 White Hispanic2,924 African American-Hispanic106 American Indian- Hispanic186 Asian American-Hispanic87 Pacific Islander-Hispanic2 Multiracial-Hispanic365

9. Age cohorts will also be shifting Largest growth anticipated among residents over 65 Largest student-age growth is expected in the 35-39 cohort Student age population, generally, is projected to remain strong 9

10. 10 20132023CHANGE% CHANGE Under 5 years14,89015,4495594% 5 to 9 years12,46412,8323683% 10 to 14 years10,31110,7664554% 15 to 19 years15,90016,4725724% 20 to 24 years29,00428,322-682-2% 25 to 29 years30,24428,323-1,921-6% 30 to 34 years27,64927,7891401% 35 to 39 years22,35225,6063,25415% 40 to 44 years20,46220,7252631% 45 to 49 years17,51415,666-1,848-11% 50 to 54 years18,01216,608-1,404-8% 55 to 59 years19,57518,535-1,040-5% 60 to 64 years16,62117,3637424% 65 to 69 years10,94214,1553,21329% 70 to 74 years6,63311,1504,51768% 75 to 79 years5,1658,8673,70272% 80 to 84 years4,6595,9871,32829% 85 years/over6,6266,450-176-3% Total289,024301,06712,0434%

11. RECOMMENDATIONS

12. Focus strategically on programs and partnerships that target industries with high growth rates and high wages Industries are groups of businesses with similar products and services. Industries are groups of businesses with similar products and services. Employers in fast-growing and high-skilled industries will have the strongest interest in helping to prepare the workers they need. Employers in fast-growing and high-skilled industries will have the strongest interest in helping to prepare the workers they need. Industry groups often support staff available for partnership work, as well as research about their workforce needs. Industry groups often support staff available for partnership work, as well as research about their workforce needs. Full participation in program design by industry partners can result in more workplace application opportunities for students. Full participation in program design by industry partners can result in more workplace application opportunities for students. 12

13. Since industries represent businesses, companies in these fields are expected to be expanding and hiring. All of them include workers with a variety of educations and all include jobs requiring high skills and paying high wages. Occupation specifics follow. 13

14. Projections for North are for businesses in Sales, Office/Administration and Food to continue to dominate area employment 14

15. 15 INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS FOR NORTH, 2013-2023

16. Projected New Jobs by Industry, North Catchment, 2013-2023 Projected Openings by Industry, North Catchment, 2013-2023 16

17. Projected Openings Compared to New Jobs, North Catchment, 2013-2023 17

18. Focus also on key occupations with high growth and high wages While industries represent businesses, occupations describe jobs. While industries represent businesses, occupations describe jobs. Remember that many occupations appear throughout multiple industries. Remember that many occupations appear throughout multiple industries. 18 Next are illustrations of the fastest growing occupations and then examples of which are usually filled by workers with associate’s degrees and certifications.

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21. 21 TOTAL JOBS BY OCCUPATION, NORTH CATCHMENT, 2013. WITH MEDIAN WAGE RATES

22. Occupations projected for the North catchment that are: 1. expected to have at least 100 total jobs in 2023, 2. with at least 15 annual openings per year 2013-23, and 3. for which employees commonly had at least a postsecondary certification and no more than a Bachelor's degree. 22

23. 23 OCCUPATION Total 2023New 2013-23Change Annual Openings 2013 MedianMost Common Ed Attainment Registered Nurse3,28863524%119$ 39.40Associate's Software Dev, Apps1,70335026%51$ 51.02Bachelor's Nursing Assistant1,45721818%40$ 14.92Certificate Hair/Cosmology1,32423021%47$ 14.02Certificate Accountant/Audit1,01812214%34$ 33.35Bachelor's Market Research77821237%40$ 39.16Bachelor's Software Dev, Sys66718639%25$ 50.20Bachelor's Preschool Tchr59311023%25$ 13.84Associate's Med/Health Mgr5846513%20$ 51.02Bachelor's Dental Assistant5818718%20$ 20.65Certificate Comp User Support57812126%26$ 26.09Associate's Elementary Tchr52412030%22$ 28.28Bachelor's Fitness Trnr5189422%17$ 19.43Certificate Comp Programmer5067217%18$ 46.72Bachelor's Comp Syst Analyst49510928%19$ 45.47Bachelor's Massage Therapist4719525%17$ 24.13Certificate Teachers, General4348324%15$ 19.72Bachelor's Dental Hygenist4337621%16$ 44.88Associate's Lic Prac Nurse4058527%19$ 26.15Certificate Graphic Designer3673310%16$ 22.50Bachelor's Secondary Tchr3549034%18$ 28.90Bachelor's

24. KING COUNTY GROWTH OCCUPATIONS AND THE MOST COMMON EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 24

25. KING COUNTY GROWTH OCCUPATIONS AND THE MOST COMMON EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 25

26. Industries with large numbers of job openings but low pay may still serve as entry points for unemployed/under-skilled job entrants Create job ladders for the entry-level positions so that workers have a clear vision of how they get from entry point to the next progression, and Create job ladders for the entry-level positions so that workers have a clear vision of how they get from entry point to the next progression, and Provide the education and training necessary for that progression. Provide the education and training necessary for that progression. Example: pay-rate increases for First Line Supervisors in multiple occupations -- Sales, Production, Transportation, Construction, Office -- average $8/hr increase in median wages. What do entry- level supervisory occupations have in common? How do workers gain required skill and knowledge? 26

27. Watch supply and demand Use advisory boards appropriately to help match education and training with employment needs. Use advisory boards appropriately to help match education and training with employment needs. Keep a clear vision, regularly updated, of the opportunities emerging in the economy by assessing employment data regularly. Keep a clear vision, regularly updated, of the opportunities emerging in the economy by assessing employment data regularly. Keep programs flexible enough to shift as industries and occupations change. Keep programs flexible enough to shift as industries and occupations change. 27

28. EXAMPLE of TRACKING SUPPLY AND DEMAND 28 Sources: EMSI/IPEDS

29. Ensure that students gain marketable skills 29  All students need to know the basic skills of the modern workplace  Employers still report that applicants/new hires lack adequate computer and computational skills.  All students need to know how to apply their academic knowledge in a workplace  Students need the opportunity to make real world applications of their learning, preferably directly with employers and at worksites, in all disciplines.  All students need to be able to communicate and use soft skills  Employers still report that applicants and new hires are deficient in communication and teamwork skills.  Students need to understand the demand for cultural/language skills  Businesses seek employees with multicultural awareness and second language skills.

30. Address the demographic changes of King County, particularly the demands of working adults The aging population provides several opportunities: expand options for workers over 45, who were highly affected by the recession. expand options for workers over 45, who were highly affected by the recession. Unemployment rate lower than for younger adults, but it takes longer to regain employment. Unemployment rate lower than for younger adults, but it takes longer to regain employment. More likely to become underemployed after prolonged unemployment More likely to become underemployed after prolonged unemployment They may be the least likely to see how to blend education and training opportunities with whatever work they have. They may be the least likely to see how to blend education and training opportunities with whatever work they have. 30

31. PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGES BY AGE COHORT, KING COUNTY 2013-2023 31

32. 32 KING COUNTY: ENROLLED IN SCHOOL/COLLEGE SEATTLE: ENROLLED IN SCHOOL/COLLEGE AGE GROUP PERCENTAGE ENROLLED AGE GROUP PERCENTAGE ENROLLED PUBLIC SCHOOL/ COLLEGE PRIVATE SCHOOL/ COLLEGE 18 - 19 79% 18 - 19 87%86%14% 20 - 24 47% 20 - 24 61%74%26% 25 - 34 13% 25 - 34 16%78%22% 35 AND OLDER 3% 35 AND OLDER 4%80%20% ONLY 13-16% of 25-34 year olds are enrolled in school or college ONLY 3-4% of those 35 years and older are enrolled

33. Address the demographic changes of King County (continued)  The rising Hispanic/Latino population is under-enrolled in the colleges. Better understanding of the education and employment objectives of these students is needed.  Growth in the five cohorts that include Hispanic identification, taken together, will increase to form a cohort of 233,435 residents in 2023, and become the third largest cohort overall. 33

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35. Address the demographic changes of King County (continued) And address the needs of nearly 20 percent of the immigrants in Seattle who lack a high school diploma or equivalent. 35

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37. 37 Having completed high school gives some assurance that these are potential students who are ready, or who could readily become ready, for credit-bearing course work. Those among them who have already completed some college courses have an even better start at reaching an associate's degree. And there are 533,160 of them. KING COUNTY RESIDENTS BY RACE/ETHNICITY WHO HAVE COMPLETED HIGH SCHOOL BUT NOT ATTAINED A DEGREE

38. For questions: Kyra Kester Social and Economic Sciences Research Center/ Puget Sound Division Washington State University kkester@wsu.edukkester@wsu.edu (best way to contact) 206.257.5121 38