1. IS KYOTO THE KEY? Global Warming, Industry and Economy

2. OVERVIEW  Global Warming: Established fact or Scientific Uncertainty?  The role of the chemical industry  The Kyoto Protocol and it’s global impact  What should and can be done?  Current advancements

3. “GLOBAL WARMING”  Greenhouse gases: naturally occurring (CO 2, CH 4, nitrous oxide, ozone, water vapor) and not naturally occurring (HFC’s, PFC’s, SF 6 )  Sinks and land-use

4. FACT OR FICTION? Known:  Atmospheric composition is changing  Greenhouse gases trap heat and tend to warm planet  Human activity produces greenhouse gases Uncertain:  Extent that human- induced greenhouse gases responsible  Projecting impacts- especially local “Some of the largest uncertainties are associated with events that pose the greatest risk to human societies.”

5. GREENHOUSE GASES  CO 2 by far largest contributor  Vary in ability to absorb heat in atmosphere  HFC’s and PFC’s highest  NO x >CH 4 >CO 2  Often measured in MMTCE, weighted by GWP

6. CARBON DIOXIDE  Combustion of waste, fossil fuels and wood  Primarily in transportation sector  U.S.: 1400 MTC/yr~ 23% of worldwide emission

7. METHANE  Decomposition of organic wastes in landfills  Production and transportation of fossil fuels  Livestock

8. NITROUS OXIDE  Agriculture, energy and industry  73% from Agriculture, 22% Energy, 5% Industry  Nitrogen fertilization of soil  Fossil fuel combustion  Adipic acid and nitric acid production

9. GLOBAL APPROACH-IPCC  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  Established in 1998 by United Nations and World Meteorological Organization  Open to all WMO and UN members  Designed to answer to scientific questions about global warming  Three branches- science, impact, mitigation

10. THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL  1987:, Designed to halt deterioration of ozone layer-ratified by 172 countries  United States ratified in 04/88  Ozone depletion may affect ocean as sink for greenhouse gases, as well as UV-B radiation  Phased out CFC’s, HCFC’s, halons, methyl bromide→ HFC’s and PFC’s  In general, not successful: ’98/’99 Antarctic hole largest, deepest ever…additional hole over UK/Scandinavia

11. THE KYOTO PROTOCOL  1997 Kyoto, Japan IPCC: Designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions→ global warming  Commits parties to legally-binding targets to reduce or limit greenhouse gas emissions  Targets total 5% overall reduction in greenhouses gases from 1990 figures  149 countries involved, not all under emission reduction

12. KYOTO MEASURES  “Enhancement of energy efficiency…”  “Protection and enhancements of sinks…”  “Promotion of sustainable form of agriculture…”  “Research…development and increased use of new and renewable forms of energy…”  “…phasing out of market imperfections, fiscal incentives, tax and duty exemptions and subsidies in all greenhouse gas emitting sectors…”  “…reduction of methane emissions through recovery and use in waste management, as well as in the production, transport and distribution of energy.”

13. ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS  “…The Parties shall strive to implement policies in such a way as to minimize adverse effects, including …climate change, effects on international trade, and social, environmental, and economic impacts…”

14. CURRENT STATUS  143 of 149 parties have ratified, accepted, approved or accented as of March 1, 2005  Parties not ratifying: Australia, Croatia, Kazakhstan, Monaco, Zambia and the United States  Parties that committed to emissions reduction committed 0-17.4% reductions  Controversial in feasibility, value added, economics

15. WHO IS WEIGHING IN?  Russian Federation: Ratified Kyoto Protocol on 11/18/04 Russian aide to the president, Andrei Illarionov: “It is a very dangerous, harmful and destructive document for Russia,” noting that Kyoto requires 80% reduction in carbonic acid emissions by 2050 which would reduced Russia’s economic potential by 70%. “The GDP and personal income levels will drop by 2.5-3 times.” (02/04/05)

16. WHO’S WEIGHING IN?  Australia: has not ratified  Ian Castles, Australian Bureau of statistics and David Henderson,OECD’s economics and statistics department head criticize underpinning economic assumptions  global warming→CO 2 → projected world economic output/energy consumption  Castles and Henderson: IPCC analysis assumes too low economic output in developing world and too fast a closing of gap with developed world →too fast growth in world GDP and carbon-intensive development  “…Kyoto itself will arguably super-charge carbon emissions…” –Terry McCrann, Herald Sun (2/16/05)

17. WHO IS WEIGHING IN?  United States: Clinton signed in ’97, Senate refused to ratify citing economic concerns  President Bush does not support Kyoto  Richard Schmalensee, MIT- U.S. would have to close all of its coal-fired power plants by 2012 just to get halfway to Kyoto's targets  Alan Manne, Stanford- following the Kyoto requirements would be the equivalent of a $1,600 per year tax on every family of four.  "It may well be unworkable," William Nordhaus, Yale, Council of Economic Advisers under Carter

18. WHERE DOES A ChE FIT IN?  CO 2 : combustion fossil fuels→ alternative fuels, increased efficiency  Methane: landfill waste→ new materials, utilize gas for energy; livestock → design of new feed  NO x : nitrogen fertilizers→ alternative chemicals; improved industrial practices

19. MOVING FORWARD  Carbon Dioxide Reduction by sector: “Five-labs Study”

20. UTILITY SECTOR  costs of carbon-reduction estimated to be positive-net investment required  Retrofitting power plants for natural gas instead of coal  Co-generation  Renewables

21. BUILDINGS SECTOR  Improved sensors and controls for better management- react to energy prices in real time  Self-powered buildings  Material development- thermal resistance of building shell, utilize environmental changes  Multi-functional appliances  Advanced lighting systems- mixing artificial and natural light

22. INDUSTRIAL SECTOR  Includes manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and construction  Manufacturing~70% of industrial-sector energy consumption. About half of that comes iron and steel, pulp and paper, and petroleum refining  Retrofitting boilers for co-generation  Industry specific improvements- coke-less steel production, carbon-less anode aluminum production  Improved usage of biproducts- cement industry

23. TRANSPORTATION SECTOR  Reduced aerodynamic drag, lower rolling resistance of tires, decreased engine friction, leaner burning engines, and variable valve timing  Engines designed for higher fuel economy  Fuel cells

24. METHANE REDUCTION  Natural gas production: vapor recovery in storage, additional flash separation recovery, low-bleed NG pneumatics  Natural gas transmission: leak detection and wrap composite repairs, specific equipment fitting  Ruminants: improved feed composition for better efficiency

25. NO x REDUCTION  Adipic and nitric acid Production: improved catalysts, catalytic decomposition of tail gases  Agriculture: alternative fertilizers, cultivation practices  Energy: transportation improvements

26. SOURCES  Kyoto Protocol, available at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf  http://www.yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf http://www.yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf  http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg99rpt/nitrous.html#industrial http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/gg99rpt/nitrous.html#industrial  McCrann, Terry. “Global Warming’s Core Flaw.” Herald Times, February 16, 2005.  http://www.globalwarming.org http://www.globalwarming.org  “Economists Support Bush on Kyoto.” American Enterprise, Oct. 2001.  http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5377079&startrow=1 &date=2005-02-04&do_alert=0 http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5377079&startrow=1 &date=2005-02-04&do_alert=0 http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5377079&startrow=1 &date=2005-02-04&do_alert=0  “Technologies to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Next Decade.” Physics Today, Nov. 2000  http://www.coalinfo.net.cn/coalbed/meeting/2203/papers/naturalgas/NG02 0.pdf http://www.coalinfo.net.cn/coalbed/meeting/2203/papers/naturalgas/NG02 0.pdf http://www.coalinfo.net.cn/coalbed/meeting/2203/papers/naturalgas/NG02 0.pdf

27. QUESTIONS  Is Kyoto realistic? Is it worth it, considering the benefits? Are we sure of the benefits and do we need to be? What, if anything should the United States do?  Is legislation necessary?  How do you balance economic and environmental concerns?  What is industry’s responsibility? What other technologies are being developed?